Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002.

2003: Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Greg Biffle: 15 combined wins

The 2003 rookie class featured two young drivers for Chip Ganassi, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears, and the older Greg Biffle who took longer to reach the Cup level but has actually enjoyed the most success.

Jamie McMurray got a headstart on the others in the class by subbing for an injured Sterling Marlin in 2002 and winning in only his second Cup start at Charlotte. Although he didn’t win in his official rookie season, McMurray was steady enough to earn the Rookie of the Year. With multiple Busch wins and a smooth transition to the Cup level, McMurray was proclaimed as a future star. The statement made sense at the time.

Then McMurray had an even better 2004, narrowly missing the Chase but finishing 11th in the final points. Despite not winning he had 9 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s and an average finish of 13.2. He followed that up with another narrow miss at the Chase and a 12th place finish in 2005.

As McMurray’s astonishing win in his second start got smaller in the rearview mirror, most people came to the conclusion that McMurray was good enough to win but lacked a strong enough team. Midway through 2005 he was announced by Roush Racing as the replacement for Mark Martin. After a prolonged contract battle, McMurray was released to drive for Roush in 2006. As things turned out he replaced Kurt Busch, meaning he inherited the 2004 Nextel Cup championship team and a car with 6 wins in the previous two seasons. It looked like the ideal setup for McMurray to give him every chance to win a lot of races.

Instead McMurray has struggled with Roush. In two and a half years he has 19 top tens, five fewer than his 2004 season. One of the few highlights was winning the Pepsi 400 in 2007. He has also gone through four crew chiefs in two plus years.

Casey Mears didn’t have a lot of stock car experience when Chip Ganassi hired him to drive the #41 Target car in 2003. His only prior experience was a full Busch season in 2002. The lack of experience showed as he struggled with consistency in his first two and half seasons. He would have a highlight like winning the pole for the Brickyard in 2004 and then follow it with a string of disappointing finish. As a rookie he suffered 10 DNF’s, mainly from crashes.

Eventually Mears began to acclimatize to stock cars. By 2006 this number was reduced to two. 2005 marked the first time he was a legitimate threat to win races. After strong runs at Texas and Homestead, it was slightly unjust that he didn’t win a race in 2005. He opened 2006 with a 2nd place run at the Daytona 500 and followed it up with two more top tens in the season’s first three events. Unfortunately he didn’t score another top ten until race 15. By then it was too late to realistically think about the Chase. After 2006 he landed a dream ride with Hendrick Motorsports alongside longtime friend Jimmie Johnson. The move did yield Mears’ first and only Cup win, but he again struggled with consistency.

Greg Biffle took more of a traditional path to the Cup level. He was discovered by Benny Parsons running in the lower, regional series and Jack Roush signed him. Biffle won a Truck Series championship in 2000, but didn’t land a Cup ride until he won a second NASCAR title in 2002, this time as Busch champion. He finally landed a full time Cup ride at age 32.

Like Mears, Biffle’s first two seasons were star-crossed. Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona as a rookie, but also struggled to keep the car off the wall. He won two more races in 2004 at Michigan and Homestead, but still found the wrecker too much.

Biffle’s big breakthrough came in 2005 when he won six races, including 5 of the first 14. He easily made the Chase and fell 32 points shy of winning the title and settled for a tie for second.

Biffle is renowned for his amazing car control, which is probably why he excels at tracks like Darlington (2 wins), Michigan (2 wins) and Homestead (3 wins). Although the wins and Chase appearances have not piled up like they did in 2005, Biffle remains one of the top drivers at the Cup level. He won two races in 2006 and one in 2007 while posting top 15 finishes. The dip in performance was partially due to some personnel changes at Roush. This year he has returned to top form. He already has more top 5’s (6) than his entire 2007 season and again sits in position to make the Chase.

Verdict: One good driver and two decent drivers with a combined 15 career wins. It’s interesting that both Mears and McMurray have taken similar career paths that both stand at a crossroads now. First McMurray and then Mears left Chip Ganassi’s team for powerhouse teams Roush-Fenway and Hendrick Motorsports respectively. Each won a Cup race last year, but it’s clear both were high points instead of breakthroughs. Both are now likely free agents for 2009 (McMurray’s plans are still unannounced) and will likely have to settle for lesser rides. As a rookie class, it’s not fantastic but did produce three solid Cup drivers. Biffle has made one Chase and won 12 races. Mears has one win, but has never finished better than 14th in the points. McMurray has two wins and has never finished in the top ten in points. The class produced solid Cup drivers and no washouts, so at least from the perspective it was good for contributing to NASCAR’s middle class.

All the attention right now is focused on Kyle Busch and rightfully so given his incredible season. That’s probably fine with Jimmie Johnson. Johnson is probably the most invisible 2-time champion in the history of NASCAR. Johnson has only one win so far in 2008, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t running well. Fans, writers and broadcasters might not notice Johnson like in past years, but when September rolls around, the #48 car will be in the thick of the championship hunt.

He began this season with a wreck at Daytona, a 2nd place at California and one race, Las Vegas, where he and the team were out to lunch. Johnson had a 47.1 driver rating at Vegas, which is totally unacceptable for a team like the #48. At that point the team realized they were behind on the Car of Tomorrow (CoT) and dedicated themselves to more testing. The Hendrick teams conceded that last year’s Chase set back the #24 and #48 cars. It cost them testing time on the CoT speedway program last fall and both teams struggled in the early months of the season.Some teams might have dismissed the poor run at Las Vegas and kept things unchanged for a few weeks, but crew chief Chad Knaus and Johnson were willing to strive for improvement based only on three races.

The testing didn’t result in wins, but the progress can be seen. He led 65 laps and had a 130.6 driver rating at Texas, the first intermediate track after the team’s intense testing. The next week he again had a driver rating of 130, led 120 laps and won the race at Phoenix. Then he led 35 laps at Lowe’s before suffering a blown engine while leading the race with 49 to go. The engine failure was the first since 2005 for Johnson. Despite his DNF and 39th place finish he still had a 94.5 driver rating, showing how strong he was.

This summer has seen Johnson have a driver rating better than 100 in 5 of 7 races. He had top three cars at Pocono, Michigan, Loudon and Chicagoland. A win is coming and it should come before the Chase begins. He has won at Indianapolis, Pocono, California and Richmond. After a sluggish spring, Johnson is back to being a threat to win on a weekly basis, regardless of the track.

Chad Knaus is the master of playing the game to his advantage. Last year they won 6 races before the Chase and took several risks in others in order to accumulate as many bonus points as possible. Many people saw Jeff Gordon with a huge points lead prior to the Chase, but Johnson and Knaus had the most wins. They also saved some of their best cars for the Chase. I suspect Knaus is running a similar plan for this year’s Chase.

Even if Johnson doesn’t win another race before the Chase, he has made up large deficits in previous years and can do it again. Since 2004 when the Chase began, Johnson has won 11 races during the Chase. Only one other driver (Greg Biffle has four wins) has won more than three races. The tracks set up incredibly well for Johnson. He has won at eight of the ten Chase tracks that account for 21 total wins. Only Homestead and Kansas have eluded Johnson, although he led the most laps at the 2006 Kansas race and finished 2nd in the 2004 Homestead race.

So go ahead, pick Kyle Busch to win every remaining race, the championship and America’s hear (just kidding). Go on and say that Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt Jr will pose serious threats for the title, or that Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth will wriggle into contention, but to me Jimmie Johnson is still the champion until someone else takes it from him. And for every driver and fan that isn’t paying attention, Johnson is ready to sneak up on everyone. Again.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. We’ll begin with the 2002 class.

2002: Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman 47 combined wins

What the class lacked in quantity was easily made up for in quality. Despite moderate results in the Busch Series, both Johnson and Newman both became Cup stars almost immediately. They both won races as rookies, and while Newman earned Rookie of the Year, Johnson actually had the better year, winning more races (3 to 1) and a higher finish in the standings (3rd). Both drivers scored 20+ top tens in their rookie seasons, proving their skill at the Cup level. 2003 they each debunked the myth of the Sophomore Slump. Newman won 8 races and driver of the year while Johnson finished third in the final standings.

Despite winning a season high 8 races in 2003, Newman has tailed off as a championship contender. Since 2003 he has only won 4 races in four and a half seasons. Although he has not reached the elite heights of NASCAR (due to a variety of reasons), Newman is a very solid driver. In six full seasons he has averaged 2 wins, 9.8 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. Plenty of drivers would take those numbers. Despite those numbers most fans would agree that Newman is talented enough to achieve even more. His point standings in the first four years were 6th, 6th, 7th and 6th, but the last two seasons he has missed the Chase. Among his accomplishments are 43 poles, which already ranks 11th on the all-time list in only six plus seasons. He also won the 2008 Daytona 500 in dramatic fashion.

If Jimmie Johnson was an unknown entering NASCAR, he has blossomed into one of the top three drivers in the sport. Johnson has won 34 races, including a Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, and the season title in 2006 and 2007. He has also never finished worse than 5th in the standings. His average stats for his first five full seasons are 5.5 wins, 14.3 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. He has also won at 15 of the 22 Cup tracks, proving his versatility. He and crew chief Chad Knaus have formed one of the longest driver-crew chief combinations and are widely regarding as one of the top pairings in the sport.

Verdict: Obviously it’s easier to assess this class because it’s older. In only 6+ seasons, Johnson is already one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport and could already begin filling out some of the details on his Hall of Fame application. It wasn’t a sure thing in 2002, however. Based on his Busch record, Johnson was a risky hire. Newman began his career with a flourish but has since struggled a bit, although that isn’t entirely his fault. As a class the two drivers have combined to win 47 races and have made the Chase 6 out of a possible 8 times. Overall this class produced one elite driver and another good driver. That’s a pretty good success rate.

I’m a little late to the party (who comes on time to parties anyway?), but here’s a few thoughts, observations and questions about Mark Martin’s plan to run for the 2009 Championship with Hendrick Motorsports.

NASCAR’s Silly Season is kind of like a big game of Jenga. The year begins with everything in a solid block but then slowly a piece gets pulled from the bottom and moved to the top. After a while a lot of holes appear, the formation begins to sway until all it takes is removing one more piece and every block in the structure is affected. Right now the entire Jenga puzzle is teetering on a few major moves, none more important than what Tony Stewart decides to do in 2009. Once that decision is announced (my guess it’s already been made) the aftershock will affect at least 10 drivers.

Last year the pieces were more sequential. Dale Earnhardt Jr, clearly the top free agent in NASCAR, made his decision, then Kyle Busch moved to Gibbs, Mark Martin slid into the #8 car and JJ Yeley moved to Hall of Fame Racing. It was more like a draft where you took the best player left on the board. This year is much more complex because drivers are looking for slightly different things. Stewart does not need to upgrade, he’s already with the top Cup team. He is looking for a place with ownership possibilities. Mark Martin is rumored to be looking for one more shot a the title belt. Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman are looking for the best long term shot at winning races and championships. There is at least one new team, Richard Childress’ 4th team that should attract a top driver. This variety of goals makes it muddier than last year.

It really looks like Stewart is going to leave Gibbs Racing, which automatically opens up one of the elite rides in the sport. Unless Stewart goes to RCR’s 4th ride, he will take someone else’s job. If he becomes an owner, that could affect the other drivers in that company as well. Would he be able to attract other high profile free agent drivers to his new company? A lot depends on where Stewart goes. If he decides to take the best ride available, he would probably head to Hendrick Motorsports’ #5 car. Based on rumors, that would throw a wrench in Martin’s plans for a full time run in 2009 with Hendrick.

Whatever happens, Casey Mears is out of the #5 car. It looks like it’s true and isn’t a big surprise. Like his old teammate Jamie McMurray discovered when he joined Roush-Fenway, an upgrade to elite equipment doesn’t necessarily mean an upgrade in success. Mears had his best Cup season in 2007, but it simply is not good enough for what the Hendrick cars are capable of. Now, ironically, it looks like Mears will be competing with McMurray for the whatever second-tier options are available.

If Martin exits DEI, that leaves a huge void. Will the Army be willing to re-sign with DEI knowing that Aric Almirola can’t match Martin’s on-track success, merchandise sales or visibility? Martin Truex Jr is not signed and appears willing to see what else is available. If he leaves, then DEI would take a very big dive. Sure Paul Menard, Almirola and Smith are young, but that doesn’t equate to immense talent or success. DEI is also already struggling to fully sponsor four teams, and that’s including Menard’s essentially personal sponsorship. What happens if Army and Truex leave? It’s hard to see Bass Pro Shops wanting to hang around either.

If Martin is indeed planning on a one year run for the title that means the #5 car would then have another new driver in 2010 (likely Brad Keselowski or Landon Cassill). That’s four different drivers in four years. Is Hendrick willing to do that? Is a longtime sponsor like Kelloggs willing to do that? Would Martin really have a serious shot at a title run?

There will be a lot more people, sponsors and teams affected by what happens in the next two months. It’s a good thing this post isn’t printed on real paper because by next week when everything I just wrote proves false you would have to rip it up anyway.

Other Thoughts off the beaten path

The Euro 2008 tourney wraps up on Sunday. Germany plays Spain. Overall the tournament has been fantastic. Games have had dramatic late goals, great individual skill and a welcome absence of boring, defensive soccer. The final should be another good game and with the potential for rain in New England, do yourself a favor and work the “previous channel” button on your remote.

I haven’t seen any movies lately (it’s too nice outside), but I have taken a peak at the summer movies. Here’s a few recommendations.

When someone does something different than the majority, the result is either stupidity or brilliance. For Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson, the result at Phoenix was brilliance. They parlayed a flawless fuel strategy into their first win of 2008.

What was everyone else doing? Not only did no one else risk making it to the end, but everyone except Carl Edwards made the same call, two tires and a splash of fuel, when pitting. One that is boring, but more importantly it won’t change the race outcome at all. If your car isn’t faster than another on the race track, you have to gamble with strategy if you hope to changed the outcome. Two tires isn’t a big advantage with less than ten laps left, and can even disrupt the car’s handling. Plus it takes longer than splashing enough fuel to make it to the end.

Three of the top four cars, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr, all made the same two-tire call. Hamlin finished third but Martin and Earnhardt Jr both lost several spots due to their pit stops. Their stops also paved the way for Johnson.

Another reason Johnson made it on fuel was because no one else in the top five tried to make it. It’s a simple, but sometimes overlooked factor in the fuel mileage game. When everyone else pitted, Johnson had a ten second lead over second place Clint Bowyer, meaning he could afford to slow way down over the final five laps. He had to race himself and not really worry about other cars. Johnson didn’t have to turn laps the same as the other leaders, only go fast enough to hold off the second place car. And make it to the end of the race. Had another car stayed out, Johnson couldn’t have coasted.

To that vein, I don’t know why Martin and the #8 team try to make it on fuel. Both Martin and the crew of the #8 team have a collectively long winless drought that could have been quenched at Phoenix. The car is safely inside the top 35, Martin isn’t vying for a Chase berth and it’s really hard to win Cup races. Martin had the lead entering the pit stop cycle, why not go for it? The exasperated (or more exasperated than usual) look on Martin’s face after the race said he wished he had the chance to try.

The final factor at play for Johnson’s win was that he simply had a great car. It handled well meaning he used less brake and also avoided feathering the throttle in the turns, thus saving fuel. Everything played out perfectly for the #48 team, but had anyone else in the top 5 stayed out, pitted for fuel only or Johnson’s car wasn’t handling so well the outcome would have been different. /p>

Other Notes and Thoughts

• Did anyone else notice that Fox interrupted Yankees-Red Sox to catch the entire NASCAR race? Sure it’s April, but I thought that was interesting what Fox thought about the race.

• Crew chief Tony Eury Jr has been a target for criticism this year for some of his in-race decisions and adjustments. Saturday night the #88 car’s strategy was sound, the car was fast all night and Dale Earnhardt Jr held the lead with 50 laps left. The team was in position to win a race when it mattered. They didn’t win, but that happens all the time in Cup. The fact that they are consistently in that position means they will eventually win a few.

• There are certain drivers that you can’t help pulling for. Whether it is Kyle Petty to make races, or Mark Martin to win a race there are some guys that just deserve to do well. Elliott Sadler is one of those drivers in my eyes. His situation stems from someone who just can’t catch a break. He was a regular threat for a top ten from 2003-2005 and then the bottom fell out at Yates Racing. Then he switched to Evernham where he walked into disarray. He finally had a good car at Phoenix, starting on the outside pole and running in the top ten. Then he loses an engine. I can’t help but feel his disappointment.

• What’s wrong with Hendrick? Oh, are we finally done with that question?

• For the people that think the CoT is a disaster and races like Atlanta and Texas were boring, keep this in mind. Phoenix was on the dull side last year but Saturday night was pretty exciting and featured good action all over the track. That provides hope for other tracks once the comfort gets there for the drivers and crew chiefs.

For more NASCAR opinion visit Racing Nation.

Let’s start with a few obvious statements from the weekend.

1. Carl Edwards and Roush as a whole are the team to beat at intermediate tracks. Only a blown engine at Atlanta kept Edwards from winning all four intermediate track races in 2008. It shouldn’t be a big surprise. Roush has always had great chassis at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. As for Edwards, it might be convenient to believe that the oil lid was the reason for his early dominance, but he is just dialed in at the high speed tracks. And as usually happens with a suspended crew chief, expect his cars over the next 6-8 races to be really good too.

2. Nobody was happy with their car and it might stay that way for most of the year. That’s not necessarily a bad thing either. Texas was hot and slick and one of the trickier tracks on the circuit to begin with. If everyone is struggling with the car, then driving talent will rise to the top. Cars up and down the leaderboard struggled with making proper adjustments. Teams might not like it but for the most part things appear fairly equal.

3. The tires and the racing appeared to be better. Mark Martin on the tires at Texas.

   These are acceptable. Atlanta was not. I’ve driven these cars 30 years. I’ve never driven on anything like Atlanta in 30 years of experience. So, these tires were great. They were very acceptable. I give them high marks. I didn’t see anybody having any problems and the car is a handful.

   I thought the racing was better than Atlanta. And most of the drivers were more worn out by the car than the tires. But just because the focus was turned away from Goodyear shouldn’t mean they can’t afford improvement with the tires.

4. Hendrick might not be totally down, but something is wrong in the house. First Jimmie Johnson struggled at Las Vegas. Then Jeff Gordon and the #24 car were like Jack Shepard. Lost.
   

   I can’t remember the last time we struggled this bad. Yes, it is just a bad day gone worse for our DuPont Impala SS team. I wish I had an answer for you, but I don’t. We are just really, really bad and I lost control of the car and I was hanging on just every single lap. We are going to fix the car and get back out there and do some testing. We have never felt anything like this.
   “We saw the NO. 48 in Las Vegas with their troubles but we haven’t sensed anything like that until we got here and we have been way off. We have to find it because we can’t go through the year like this.

   It’s hard to say if it’s related to the new speedway program that the CoT requires or Hendrick is simply stubbing their toes so far in 2008. What is known is that Gordon and Johnson aren’t simply showing up and running in the top five at every track. By no means does that mean that it will remain that way in 2008.

Notes

• Through seven races no driver has won from the pole this year. Every winner has come from a top ten starting position however. Three times this year’s winner started on the outside pole.

• I really liked the split screen view that showed 9 drivers’ in-car cameras at once. It’s something Fox should do every week. With all of the technology

• For the third straight season Jeremy Mayfield has driven his way out of the top 35. He has one finish better than 20th (16th at Las Vegas). In a familiar plot, the #70 car is unsponsored and missing races would only hurt that effort.

• A Ganassi car was actually spotted on Sunday. Too bad it was mostly Juan Pablo Montoya irritating lead lap cars. It’s interesting the Chip Ganassi ripped into his teams earlier in the weekend. Sure things aren’t going well, but publicly admonishing the drivers and crew doesn’t really help anything.

• Obviously the rookie class has been a collective dud, but one that is showing the most improvement is Patrick Carpentier. He crashed in Daytona qualifying but has made every other 2008 race where qualifying has been held. He’s scored top 30’s in his last two races and most importantly he’s avoiding trouble and turning laps. He doesn’t have the resume of the other open wheel rookies or the seat time in a stock car like Regan Smith or other young drivers, but Carpentier is one that could show improvement over the course of the year.

• Be sure to visit Autismspeaks.org and watch the Chevy video. All you have to do is watch a video and Chevy will donate money to autism research. It’s a simple way to help that doesn’t cost you a thing.

For more NASCAR news check out Racing Nation.

After the tire debacle at Atlanta, things can only be better at Texas right? As the tour returns to a high-speed 1.5 mile track, questions remain about the tires. There is a lot of pressure on Goodyear to find a softer, more competitive tire while at the same time retaining the safety. Public opinion wasn’t helped when NASCAR declined Texas Motorspeedway president Eddie Gossage’s invitation for an additional tire test. If things aren’t improved at Texas, it would be embarrassing for NASCAR and Goodyear.

Hopefully that’s the last mention of tires this weekend, so let’s move on to the race itself. In its short history, Texas Motorspeedway has certainly had a rich story. A lap one wreck took out a fourth of the field in the first race. Weepers (and you thought it was a new term at California). Threatened Lawsuits. Jackmen attacking drivers. And that’s only over fourteen races and eleven years of existence.

The Entry List

• Mark Martin returns to the #8 car after his spring break. No he wasn’t at Senor Frogs (although I haven’t verified that).
• Kyle Petty is replaced in the #45 car by Chad McCumbee. More on the Petty situation tomorrow.
• Ken Schrader and Emeril Racing (BAM!) said, “Sike! We’re not going to enter Texas.”
• Schrader might not go racing at Texas, but Burney Lamar is. So to the fans yearning for Burney, be sure to catch Friday’s practice session because making the race is a long shot.

Last Year’s Race

Jeff Burton led the final two laps after a tough battle with Matt Kenseth to nab his only win of 2007. However, as is often the case, the big talk that Monday morning was not about the winner. The wreck involving Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Busch while they slowed for a caution grabbed the headlines. Busch left so Earnhardt stuck around and drove the #5 car for a few laps. I still believe this was unrelated to the later events that saw Earnhardt replace Busch at Hendrick, but it was all anyone wanted to talk about during the week. Both drivers have obviously adaptied to the changes well.

Who runs well?

• Tony Stewart-Won the 2006 fall race and has the best driver rating (109.3) over the last six Texas races.
• Matt Kenseth-He has led 374 laps at Texas and has led at least one lap in 9 of the last 10 races.
• Denny Hamlin-He has four top tens in five career starts. It could have been five for five. He was leading the race last fall when he got loose racing Kenseth too hard and hit the wall.
• Martin Truex Jr-Won the fall 2007 pole and has a 95.7 driver rating in five career starts. So far this year he has not been near the front like the way he ended 2007.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr-He got his first career Cup win at Texas in 2000 and also has seven top tens in 11 tries. I’ll bet anyone a billion dollars that win gets mentioned on Sunday along with some kind of parallel to his first win with Hendrick Motorsports if he is leading at any point in the race.

Fantasy Picks

Champs
Kurt Busch has done almost everything but win at Texas. That includes wrecking former teammate Greg Biffle two years ago that incited a near catfight between the significant others. When he stays on the track the #2 team has had several strong runs only to unravel in the pits.

Chumps
This week the Chumps list is extremely difficult to interpret. Eight of the top 11 Texas driver ratings belong to drivers in this category. Three others, Kasey Kahne Ryan Newman and Jeff Burton have won at Texas. The other two on the list, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick, have had good runs at other intermediate tracks this year. Since his win at Daytona, Newman has one top ten (California).

Sleepers
Casey Mears really likes Texas. In eight career races he has 2 top fives and four top tens. Both numbers are tops for Mears at any track. Racing luck and misfortune have hindered his point standing so far this year, but the cars have been pretty good.

Who will win? Tony Stewart has watched his teammates win two of the last three races. Now it’s his turn. Wouldn’t it be great if he peeled off his firesuit and he had a message waxed in his back hair? Something like “Suck it Goodyear”. [I’m the only one?]

What is it about Virginia drivers at their hometown tracks, Richmond and Martinsville? Sunday gave the state plenty to be proud of. Denny Hamlin won his first Cup race in his home state, a victory he said was without a doubt the biggest of his young career. Hamlin’s love for his local tracks is obvious. From his visible disappointment of past misses to his prominent support during last year’s Virginia Tech tragedy.

Another Virginian Jeff Burton nearly took home his second straight win, but held on for a third place. Burton also assumed the overall points lead for the first time this season. As impressive as Hamlin and Burton were, the day’s most impressive run might have belonged to Emporia, VA native Elliott Sadler.

Sadler suffered through back problems all weekend, painful enough for the team to keep subsitute driver Dennis Setzer on standby. Sadler stayed in the car and ground out 500 laps and a 15th place finish.

“You got to give the guy lot of credit. I mean pushing on that brake pedal a thousand times out there like that is not easy no matter what the conditions are like. And I’ve had some back issues, you know, in the past. Not quite that bad. But here and the road courses, places you don’t want to go to with a sore back,” said Jeff Gordon about Sadler’s gutty drive.

In many sports, players are willing to sit out with less serious injuries, but NASCAR drivers are in a different situation. Admittedly sponsors and points play a big factor in drivers getting in the cars each week, but that doesn’t diminish the physical toughness they have to drive in discomfort all afternoon. It’s one thing to simply drive for 250 miles scrunched into a car not known for comfort, but then add 42 other cars and the inevitable contact for three plus hours and it’s more impressive.

“I feel pretty good. I appreciate Dennis Setzer working with us the last two days giving me a little break on Friday and Saturday and that made a big difference today. I took a few Tylenol and I felt great during the race. I’m a little sore. I’ll definitely be feeling this in the morning. My back did not get any worse during the race; it stayed at the same level of soreness the whole time.”

I’m sure Sadler would have tried to drive at any track, but considering it was a home race for him had to be added incentive.

• Hendrick cars took 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th. Granted, Hendrick cars always run well at Martinsville, but can we finally stop talking about a mythical Hendrick slump? Dale Earnhardt Jr, Gordon and Johnson all sit inside the top 12. Prior to Johnson getting clipped by Ryan Newman, it was looking like a Hendrick sweep was possible. The wins will come.

• Martinsville is a tough race for anyone, but doubly rough for a rookie debut. Michael McDowell ran on the lead lap for 400+ miles but ran into trouble when the leaders closed in. After giving Jeff Burton a tough time, he then spun from a flat tire to finish three laps down in 26th place. To pile on, he drew the ire of Burton, one of the calmest and most level-headed drivers in the sport.

• What was up with Matt Kenseth? He was involved in at least three accidents, including an on-track spat with David Gilliland. That move resulted in NASCAR holding Kenseth for two laps. It’s no secret Kenseth doesn’t run well at Martinsville, but he sure didn’t improve the situation today.

• Jamie McMurray had a very solid weekend, qualifying fifth and then spending 499 of 500 laps in the top 15. His eighth place finish returned him to the top 35, knocking David Reutimann and the #44 team from their safe perch. Regan Smith also had a solid run, finishing 14th and dislodging Sam Hornish Jr from the top 35. It was by far Smith’s best race of the season.

• There are several reasons I enjoy the Martinsville races, but here’s one I realized today. It’s not a matter of keeping your car clean, it’s keeping it cleaner than everyone else. It’s great to see the top five cars all have donuts and dents on them, yet still run well. It’s not scientific, it just looks cool.

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Hot dogs, paperclips and grandfather clocks. In a word association game, most people would be clueless about the relationship. For a NASCAR fan, the response would be an emphatic ‘Martinsville’. The famous (infamous?) hot dogs, the tight paperclip-shaped track and the unique grandfather clock trophy, a race at Martinsville serves plenty of character to the NASCAR crowed.

The first Martinsville race took place in 1949 when the place was still a dirt track. Red Byron beat 14 other drivers to win. Byron and his Toyota Camry Oldsmobile beat second place Lee Petty by 3 laps. The purse was $3,800 which might cover the cost of gas today.

Martinsville might be the slowest track on the Cup circuit but it packs a lot of excitement. Maybe ISC should use that as a selling point. “Catch all the action at NASCAR’s slowest track!” It’s not quite as sexy as Atlanta touting the fastest track or Darlington being the track too tough to tame, but a claim is a claim, right? Slow isn’t a trait that marketers love, but in one sense it is a benefit. Slower speeds bring better racing. It’s a theory several people believe would translate to speedways too.

Numbers and Notes

• If Lowes Motorspeedway is Jimmie Johnson’s house, then Martinsville is like his vacation cabin in the woods. He has four career wins including three straight. In 12 starts he has 11 top tens and eight top 5’s with an average finish of 6.2.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr is the best driver never to win a grandfather clock. He has seven top fives in 16 starts but zero wins. Anyone questioning his driver talent should simply refer to his 2006 run when he finished 4th without the luxury of his front fenders or bumper. He has a great chance to break through this weekend.

• Since 1998, Kurt Busch is the only driver to win races at Bristol and Martinsville in the same season. In 2002 Busch won the spring Bristol race and the fall Martinsville event. While both are short tracks, the actual setups are worlds apart. Bristol relates closer to Dover while Martinsville is more similar to Loudon or Phoenix. That means recent history is against Jeff Burton, but it’s more coincidence than restricting success at both tracks.

• A quick glance at the entry list shows 47 cars entered, meaning only four will miss the race. Michael McDowell will make his Cup debut, stepping into the Robert Parrish (#00) car for Michael Waltrip Racing. Meanwhile teammate David Reutimann slides over to the #44 car. Aric Almirola continues in the #8 car after his strong top ten run at Bristol. Watch out for Ken Schrader in the #49 car. Although the sun is quickly setting on both BAM Racing and Schrader, Kenny can still compete at short tracks and Martinsville is probably his best track at this point.

  Teams needing to qualify on speed this week are #01 Regan Smith, #08 Tony Raines, #10 Patrick Carpentier, #21 Bill Elliott (past champion provisional is in effect), #22 Dave Blaney, #34 John Andretti, #40 Dario Franchitti, #45 Kyle Petty, #49 Ken Schrader, #78 Joe Nemechek and #84 Mike Skinner.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers Picks

My Pick to Win

Tony Stewart is a very reasonable pick, he always runs well at Martinsville. It would also be easy to take Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon. Instead I’ll take Dale Earnhardt Jr to finally get off the schnide (any idea what a schnide is or how Jr got on it in the first place?) and win his first points race in almost two years.