Trouble in Turn2

One of the most exciting parts of sports for me is the transactions and seeing how teams are built. I love drafts, hot stove leagues and trade deadlines. Obviously NASCAR is different since there is no salary cap, anyone can start a team, the draft is only relevant if you have a restrictor plate, and the only high profile commodities are the drivers and crew chiefs. What if there was a trade deadline prior to say the Brickyard 400? Imagine if drivers had no ties to ownership and their contracts were something that actually locked them into a team (let’s face it, it’s easier for a driver to get out of their contract than to escape their Nationwide cars in a bad crash)? It’s impossible for it to truly work, but indulge me for a minute. Pretend that a team could trade drivers and crew chiefs to fill other needs on their teams. For example: Instead of Mark Martin leaving DEI for nothing, Hendrick would have to pay compensation. DEI needs another driver, so maybe Hendrick exchanges Casey Mears and a chassis to be named later for the rights to Martin.

While other sports worry about salary caps or draft picks, NASCAR teams might use sponsorship logos as currency. Occasionally there is talk about franchising the teams in NASCAR, but I’m not waiting for that to happen. I’ve decided to assume they already are. Now that that’s done, here’s a few deals that I could see happening before this year’s trade deadline.

• In a blockbuster, Joe Gibbs Racing trades Tony Stewart to Haas-CNC in exchange for the monster of all wind tunnels. A $40 million rolling wind tunnel, the only one of its kind.

• An unhappy star driver with little chance of making the Chase is a perfect candidate to be dealt. Instead of keeping him there, trade him away for some young prospects. (Maybe that driver’s name rhymes Pawn Jablo Zontoya). Richard Childress Racing needs a skilled veteran driver to pilot their new fourth team for 2009. They might be willing to trade away Scott Wimmer, and crew chief Todd Berrier in exchange for Zontoya’s rights.

• In a mid-summer push to make the Chase and get Brian Vickers to Victory Lane, Red Bull Racing trades development driver Scott Speed and some Red Bull sponsor logos to Yates Racing in exchange for crew chief Todd Parrott.

• BAM Racing deals Ken Schrader to Furniture Row Racing for Joe Nemechek. The deal also apparently involved a swap of antique deck chairs believed to be on the Titanic.

• Jack Roush trades Jamie McMurray to Michael Waltrip Racing in exchange for an undisclosed chassis part. On the surface the trade looks very lopsided and despite no comment from Roush, he was seen in the garage with a large smile.

• With the #96 team outside the top 35, they acquire Ryan Newman and his qualifying prowess. Newman was set to leave Penske Racing for free agency after the season so the team cashed in at the trade deadline. JJ Yeley is sent the other way with Penske planning to field him in an IRL car.

• Owner Robby Gordon trades driver Robby Gordon and his offroad truck to Petty Enterprises in exchange for Bobby Labonte. Gordon the owner thought that the clam Labonte would take better care of his equipment and take Robby Gordon Motorsports to the next level. The move allows the Pettys to double the number of races where they’re competitive to two. Plus the offroad truck will be a big hit at the Victory Junction Gang camp.

What other trades could you see happening or want to see happen? Who should be traded? [note:posts don’t get published when you forget to hit “publish”.]

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002.

2003: Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Greg Biffle: 15 combined wins

The 2003 rookie class featured two young drivers for Chip Ganassi, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears, and the older Greg Biffle who took longer to reach the Cup level but has actually enjoyed the most success.

Jamie McMurray got a headstart on the others in the class by subbing for an injured Sterling Marlin in 2002 and winning in only his second Cup start at Charlotte. Although he didn’t win in his official rookie season, McMurray was steady enough to earn the Rookie of the Year. With multiple Busch wins and a smooth transition to the Cup level, McMurray was proclaimed as a future star. The statement made sense at the time.

Then McMurray had an even better 2004, narrowly missing the Chase but finishing 11th in the final points. Despite not winning he had 9 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s and an average finish of 13.2. He followed that up with another narrow miss at the Chase and a 12th place finish in 2005.

As McMurray’s astonishing win in his second start got smaller in the rearview mirror, most people came to the conclusion that McMurray was good enough to win but lacked a strong enough team. Midway through 2005 he was announced by Roush Racing as the replacement for Mark Martin. After a prolonged contract battle, McMurray was released to drive for Roush in 2006. As things turned out he replaced Kurt Busch, meaning he inherited the 2004 Nextel Cup championship team and a car with 6 wins in the previous two seasons. It looked like the ideal setup for McMurray to give him every chance to win a lot of races.

Instead McMurray has struggled with Roush. In two and a half years he has 19 top tens, five fewer than his 2004 season. One of the few highlights was winning the Pepsi 400 in 2007. He has also gone through four crew chiefs in two plus years.

Casey Mears didn’t have a lot of stock car experience when Chip Ganassi hired him to drive the #41 Target car in 2003. His only prior experience was a full Busch season in 2002. The lack of experience showed as he struggled with consistency in his first two and half seasons. He would have a highlight like winning the pole for the Brickyard in 2004 and then follow it with a string of disappointing finish. As a rookie he suffered 10 DNF’s, mainly from crashes.

Eventually Mears began to acclimatize to stock cars. By 2006 this number was reduced to two. 2005 marked the first time he was a legitimate threat to win races. After strong runs at Texas and Homestead, it was slightly unjust that he didn’t win a race in 2005. He opened 2006 with a 2nd place run at the Daytona 500 and followed it up with two more top tens in the season’s first three events. Unfortunately he didn’t score another top ten until race 15. By then it was too late to realistically think about the Chase. After 2006 he landed a dream ride with Hendrick Motorsports alongside longtime friend Jimmie Johnson. The move did yield Mears’ first and only Cup win, but he again struggled with consistency.

Greg Biffle took more of a traditional path to the Cup level. He was discovered by Benny Parsons running in the lower, regional series and Jack Roush signed him. Biffle won a Truck Series championship in 2000, but didn’t land a Cup ride until he won a second NASCAR title in 2002, this time as Busch champion. He finally landed a full time Cup ride at age 32.

Like Mears, Biffle’s first two seasons were star-crossed. Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona as a rookie, but also struggled to keep the car off the wall. He won two more races in 2004 at Michigan and Homestead, but still found the wrecker too much.

Biffle’s big breakthrough came in 2005 when he won six races, including 5 of the first 14. He easily made the Chase and fell 32 points shy of winning the title and settled for a tie for second.

Biffle is renowned for his amazing car control, which is probably why he excels at tracks like Darlington (2 wins), Michigan (2 wins) and Homestead (3 wins). Although the wins and Chase appearances have not piled up like they did in 2005, Biffle remains one of the top drivers at the Cup level. He won two races in 2006 and one in 2007 while posting top 15 finishes. The dip in performance was partially due to some personnel changes at Roush. This year he has returned to top form. He already has more top 5’s (6) than his entire 2007 season and again sits in position to make the Chase.

Verdict: One good driver and two decent drivers with a combined 15 career wins. It’s interesting that both Mears and McMurray have taken similar career paths that both stand at a crossroads now. First McMurray and then Mears left Chip Ganassi’s team for powerhouse teams Roush-Fenway and Hendrick Motorsports respectively. Each won a Cup race last year, but it’s clear both were high points instead of breakthroughs. Both are now likely free agents for 2009 (McMurray’s plans are still unannounced) and will likely have to settle for lesser rides. As a rookie class, it’s not fantastic but did produce three solid Cup drivers. Biffle has made one Chase and won 12 races. Mears has one win, but has never finished better than 14th in the points. McMurray has two wins and has never finished in the top ten in points. The class produced solid Cup drivers and no washouts, so at least from the perspective it was good for contributing to NASCAR’s middle class.

Have you ever had a friend that no matter what they do can’t seem to get out of their own way? Maybe they get a raise at work, but then blow it on a new TV they can’t afford? You can’t help but slap your forehead and cover your eyes. In NASCAR that friend is Dodge. For every triumph, there seems to be self-inflicted Dodge has won three of the last six Cup races. When you throw in Kasey Kahne’s All-Star win, that’s 4 in the last seven, which is more than the manufacturer won in all of 2007. On paper, things look pretty good for Dodge and its teams. Of course reality tells a different story, and to anyone that has followed NASCAR in recent years knows how self-sabotaging the Dodge teams can be. Even during high spots, there are more problems than positives.

The big news this week is that Chip Ganassi is putting the #40 car up on cinder blocks for the rest of 2008, meaning Dario Franchitti’s Cup career will also see weeds and grass sprout around it while it sits in the backyard at Ganassi’s shop. The lack of sponsorship was the final blow for the car. While Franchitti entered NASCAR with great credentials like an Indy 500 win and an IRL championship (not to mention the Judd marketing factor), it’s pretty easy to see why companies passed on Ganassi. Their NASCAR teams stink. One Cup win since 2002, no driver has ever made the Chase and since 2005 no driver has scored more than 10 top 10’s in a season. In the middle of 2005 Ganassi announced tentative plans to expand to four cars. It never happened because Jamie McMurray successfully voided his contract and moved to Roush-Fenway, but at the time Ganassi did have enough sponsorship for all four teams. Of course that was before the mortgage crisis (remember Home 1-2-3?) and the overall economic slowdown. It’s a little surprising Franchitti was willing to come to NASCAR despite the lack of funding.

In 2006 Kasey Kahne won a series high 6 races and made the Chase for Evernham Motorsports. At the same time teammate Jeremy Mayfield struggled to stay inside the top 35, was ultimately fired in midseason and threatened legal action. The ugliness only intensified with the inappropriate relationship between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker. That ultimately played a part in the team’s abysmal 2007 season where the team realized halfway through that their season was wasted due using incorrect data to build their cars. Things are just now returning to normal, almost a year and a half later.

How about Penske Racing? In the summer of 2005 they signed one of the biggest free agents, Kurt Busch, to replace the retiring Rusty Wallace. It was the perfect driver to build upon a successful 2005 season that saw two of the three Penske cars make the Chase. Instead Penske chopped the #77 team (not due to sponsorship) and contracted back to two teams. To make things worse, the Penske teams spent the majority of the offseason and the spring trying to run the older Intrepid instead of the current Charger model. The result was-you guessed it-a wasted season. After two seasons of two cars the #77 finally returned to the track this year, but is again struggling as a new team. Had it been running continuously, the team might be a lot further along and more competitive with the other top teams at Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford.

All of the teams at Dodge (don’t forget Petty Enterprises, who is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant) have struggled in the last five years. It’s fitting given the unstable nature of Dodge. Daimler sold the company in 2007 and they are still struggling to compete. Things could only get worse for Dodge on the competition side. With factory support an unknown quantity, there is no real hope for drastic improvement on the track. And based on some of the rumors, top drivers like Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya could have other opportunities with different teams next year as well. While the wins might increase with Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch, the overall picture in the Dodge camp is pretty gloomy.

For the first 270 laps, Sunday’s race at New Hampshire was pretty tame. The leaders maintained comfortable leads with ease, the top ten positions didn’t change much and barring problems, cars were pretty much locked into a comfortable position and no one was passing. Then a caution came out when Jamie McMurray plowed through Dale Earnhardt Jr and suddenly all hell broke loose. The top drivers pitted while eight other cars stayed out, led by Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart, the dominant car for the day, pitted for two tires and was relegated to 14th on the restart. With one caution plus a pending storm it was pretty obvious that the final results had been turned upside down.

That set up a wild finish, but it wasn’t done yet. Kurt Busch jumped out on the restart, but had to battle lapped car Robby Gordon and nearly hit the outside wall. A few laps later Sam Hornish spilt Clint Bowyer to bring out the caution. Juan Pablo Montoya took the chance to controversy.

“[Busch] hit me under caution, he hit me under green and I retaliated. Did I go a little bit too far retaliating? Yeah. I told them[NASCAR officials] the only reason I did that was I was defending myself.

Somehow Busch tried to play coy and absolve himself from blame.

I got a run on him earlier and I got on the outside and he kind of kept coming up a little bit. I didn’t turn down into him and just barely touched his quarter panel. Then I got by him in three and four and he run me up the race track in the left rear. Then we came to that caution flag and he thought he beat me to the caution flag and I was just trying to get around the 40 (Dario Franchitti) car, who was in front of us there and touched him on the door and he just turned left and spun me down the front straight away. I don’t know what his beef is, but obviously NASCAR should probably fix it.

Montoya was penalized 2 laps for rough driving, dropping his final position to 32nd. His admission that the hit was intentional (which was pretty obvious on the replay) will probably cost Montoya some money, more points and probation for the remainder of the season. Montoya wasn’t going to make the Chase and is not broke so in my mind that biggest penalty is actually the probation. Why? It means Montoya won’t be able to partake in Facewashing with Harvick 2 at Watkins Glen this year. Comparing the Loudon incident with the quasi-fisticuffs from last made me realize something else. Montoya’s favorite expression, “I don’t appreciate that.” That’s getting worked into my everyday phrases. That or “My name is Juan Pablo Montoya, you killed my top 15, prepare to die.”

Some Random thoughts while avoiding the 90+ degree heat

• Bill Weber used “Strategery” when discussing pit stops. Even if it was for comedic value, it fizzled. Later he mentioned that Stewart could become the first driver to sweep the weekend and ended with a grumpy, “there’s a stat for ya’”. What’s wrong with stats? They never did anything to you. Maybe he was just sour today.

• Where was Roush? The fact that the TNT announcers called it a rebound when none of the five drivers were in the top ten is an indictment of how bad they were today.

• Casey Mears had a nice run before slipping at the end. In one sense I’m glad he didn’t score a surprising win because it spared us all headlines and nonsense about how he was more motivated this week. He still managed a top ten in back to back races for the first time this year. Watch out for Mears next weekend at Daytona. He’s good on restrictor plates and nearly won the race last year.

• By the way, Kurt Busch won the race.

• Michael Waltrip scored his first top five finish since 2005 (5th place at Pocono). It’s a huge boost not only for his effort to stay inside the top 35, but also for his sponsorship status with Napa.
  

  I’m not emotional about this, other than the fact to say it’s amazing that NAPA Auto Parts is still on my car after what we went through the last couple years. Just to do anything good for them, outside front row at Daytona, to have a finish like we did today, I just want to say thank you to them by doing well. That’s my goal, is to do good for them.

  Waltrip is often portrayed as a shill, but he really does get it. For all of his struggles in team ownership, he somehow still has large sponsors at least through this year, and he obviously realizes how fortunate he is. As an aside, Waltrip pitted two laps later than Kurt Busch and it would have been interesting to see how things would have ended without the rain stoppage.

• Question: Can you use “McMurray tried to drive through me” as a valid excuse for hitting the commitment cone on pit road?

For more racing news and opinion peep Racing Nation.

Finally.

Dale Earnhardt Jr returned to Victory Lane in a Cup race. The last time Dale Earnhardt Jr won a Cup points race, Bill Clinton was in office. Or at least some people made it seem like it had been that long. The way Junior’s 2008 has gone, he could actually have multiple wins by now. He’s been a top five car nearly every week. It also doesn’t matter that he won on fuel mileage. They all count. The whole object of a race is to get to the front at the right time. Part of the reason the #88 team could gamble on fuel was their position in the standings. In prior seasons Earnhardt Jr has been near the bottom of the Chase standings and couldn’t afford a 25th place finish. With their 3rd place position it opens up more opportunities to take risks, which is exactly how they won on Sunday. Compare that with some of the other teams fighting for a Chase spot like Kevin Harvick, David Ragan and Jamie McMurray that were forced to pit under the final caution.

Not everyone is an Earnhardt Jr fan, but my guess is that the majority of NASCAR fans can appreciate Jr’s win and feel good about it. Put aside the fact that he’s the most popular driver in NASCAR, consider how hard it is to win Cup races. Now look at a few of the races where he’s come tantalizingly close to winning. He’s been wrecked while leading (Talladega 2006, Richmond 2008), had engine failures while running in the top 3 (Indianapolis, Richmond 2007), and been on the other side of the fuel mileage game (Charlotte 2007). It was a deserved, and popular, win.

• Tony Stewart is donating his winnings from Sunday’s race to the Red Cross and specifically the Indiana flood relief. Stewart spent most of the day in the top ten before coming home fifth. That’s a nice $136, 986 check for those in need.

  “I’m happy we got a top-five for everyone in Columbus, Indiana, and that we can do something to help our community out,” Stewart said. “It’s been on my mind all weekend. That’s what this top-five is for. When it’s your own community and your own neighbors, it’s good to generate a good amount of winnings for them.”

  The finish was also Stewart’s first top ten since a 4th place run at Richmond last month.

• I tried the Race Buddy, which is great. You can toggle between different camera views like Pit Road, In-Car, On Track Battles or four angles at once. It’s a poor man’s Hot Pass. The one downside, as my wife pointed out, is that there is no Bill Weber to complain about.

• Matt Kenseth continued his rebound with a 3rd place finish after leading 41 laps. It could have been better if not for his pit road incident with a track official. As Kenseth was leaving his pit, he had to brake when the official was still in front of his car for some reason. It cost him spots on the track that he never made up. Kenseth’s teammate Greg Biffle also had a costly pit road incident. The team was changing two tires but Biffle took off before the front tire changer could clear the car and was almost hit. Unfortunately the move also was a penalty because the air gun was left on the wrong side of the car. It was another top five run for Biffle, spoiled by a team mistake.

• Red Bull Racing’s intermediate program is really coming alive. Not only did Brian Vickers have one of the strongest cars in the race but AJ Allmendinger was also strong (79.7 driver rating) before getting shuffled back at the end. The team is still growing and needs improvement on the shorter tracks, but is one of the big stories of the last month. Now Allmendinger heads to Sonoma with a very good chance of scoring his first top ten finish.

• Kyle Petty noted how many races have come down to pit strategy with the new car. That’s true, but I think it has less to do with the car itself and more from the timing of the cautions. With track position at an even greater premium and crew chiefs unsure how even the best car will handle in traffic, getting to the front is now paramount.

• The win was Chevy’s first at Michigan since 2001.

• 18 different drivers have won Cup races since Earnhardt Jr’s last Cup win in 2006.

• The race lasted 2 hours 47 minutes. Last week’s race at Pocono last 4 hours.


For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation.

I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

Silly Season ‘08 is beginning to take shape with several announcements in recent weeks. Monday it was the word that Jamie McMurray may not return (McMurray denies it)with Roush-Fenway Racing for 2009. The move is not shocking based on the fact that the team has to eliminate one car from their squad. The fact that McMurray has not fulfilled his potential also didn’t help. According to Jim Utter of the Charlotte Observer, Roush is also considering moving McMurray’s current sponsor, Crown Royal, to Greg Biffle’s car for 2009. It’s pretty obvious that Biffle will sign a new contract soon. Whether or not the announcement is official, it’s hard to imagine McMurray returning to Roush in 2009.

McMurray’s fate is actually linked to his teammates. Biffle and Carl Edwards were both top free agents for 2009 and had either left the organization, McMurray would probably be safe for next year. Unfortunately, Edwards signed a new deal last month and Biffle is close to following suit. That means McMurray is the answer to a simple math equation. McMurray is the most expendable driver in the Roush company. Biffle and Edwards are obviously having great seasons and have won 22 races combined in their careers. Matt Kenseth, while struggling this season, is a past Cup champion and a consistent threat to win races. David Ragan is a 22 year old driver with big potential and is outperforming McMurray in 2008. Five minus one equals McMurray. (On a side note, I wonder if Jack Roush will try to spin it as NASCAR’s fault for making him cut a team?)

What happens to McMurray now will be very interesting. At this point the only top tier team looking for a driver is RCR. Otherwise his options are probably limited to a second-tier team like DEI. Other teams will have openings as the season progresses, but signing on with a quality team is crucial for McMurray. In the current Cup environment things can slide quickly on a driver. Look at Jeremy Mayfield or JJ Yeley. How will other teams perceive McMurray? As a talented driver that needs a clean break or someone that failed with one of the elite Cup teams?

Despite his low stock right now, McMurray is tremendously talented and only three years ago barely missed making the Chase. He is capable of running well on almost any type of track. From short tracks, restrictor plate races to road courses, he is adept at everything NASCAR offers. He’s scored a top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. He has two Cup wins and seven career Busch/Nationwide wins, including four straight at Rockingham.

The trouble is that he has not found success on a consistent basis. After his win last July at Daytona he finished 26th or worse in six straight races. He also fell outside the top 35 after this year’s Bristol. The other problem is that better drivers could potentially be available on the free agent market. It’s far from disaster, but it’s also far from what McMurray imagined when he signed a deal with Roush three years ago.

It feels like the Cup boys were just at Daytona, but eight races later the year is one fourth over. I’ve already discussed a few things we’ve learned so far, but it’s time to check out a few teams and drivers and hand out some grades for the quarter. It’s not a final grade (NASCAR is on semesters, right?), but more of a progress report.

These grades aren’t based strictly on performance, but more on preseason expectations. So a car or team expected to run in the thirties that is running in the teens or twenties is a bigger deal than Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch running well. It’s not a surprise that those two are winning races.

Talladega Preview

It’s easy to dismiss restrictor plates as a completely unpredictable crapshoot. There are more crashes and drivers have fewer control in certain situations, but the race outcome is not as simple as pulling one of 43 ping pong balls out of a hopper. Restrictor plate racing is a different category of racing just like road racing, short track racing and intermediate tracks. Each type of track requires its own kind of discipline.

When you think about the teams and drivers that run well at Talladega, they’re are almost always the same. How can that be a crapshoot? If it were truly a crapshoot you would see a small team stealing an occasional win. Instead certain teams have dominated restrictor plates and the domination is especially present at Talladega. Hendrick has won six of the last eight races. Before that DEI won five in a six race span.

It’s more accurate to say Talladega is a crapshoot for drivers not in the top ten. That is where the majority of the wrecks start and subsequently collect other cars. Good restrictor plate drivers like Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhadt Jr and Tony Stewart have all had their share of wrecks, but they also know how to avoid them. Believe it or not that takes skill.

What Happened Last Year

The 2007 spring Talladega race was a bit of a bore as the cars stayed single file for almost an entire fuel run. Then a late wreck set up a frenzied finish with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson making their way to the front before the caution flag froze the field and Gordon won his second straight Cup race. The caution was caused by a wild wreck involving Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray, David Gilliland and a scary crash for Tony Stewart. Smoke also had some choice words after the race:

We get hit and then pushed in the wall. We’re done wrecking right there and then all of a sudden get jacked up by the No. 38 car for no reason. There was absolutely no reason for that to happen. He’s just taking it out on us for yesterday when he turned down across the nose. Leapt into his Cup ride but I don’t know, we’ll see.

Front Runners

• Jeff Gordon: He has two straight wins and has also won three of the last four spring events. Gordon also owns the best driver rating of the last six Talladega races. His two wins last year came courtesy of great surges on the final lap to take the lead.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr: Jr has won four Talladega races, although that don’t mean sh*t because he hasn’t won since 2004. Jr will find his way to the front and, like at Daytona, stay there for most of the day. That is the difference versus the last few seasons with DEI.

• Tony Stewart: Stewart has six runner up finishes but zero wins. He has a total of eight top 5’s and eleven top 10’s in 18 career Talladega starts. With the horsepower that the Camry’s cranked out at Daytona, he has everything required to finally win at Talladega.

• Kurt Busch: Busch has done almost everything but win a restrictor plate race. Laps led 89, top fives (6), wrecks, but no win, yet. The Dodges were more competitive at Daytona than any other track in 2008.

• Jamie McMurray: McMurray has an interesting pattern to his Talladega runs. He has four straight top tens, including three consecutive 5th place finishes in the spring race. In the fall race he has never scored a top ten and wrecks have brought him home in 37th the last two years. Fifteen percent of all his career laps led have been at Talladega. It doesn’t sound like a large number until you consider that Talladega races only have 188 laps per event.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

My Pick

The big question this week, actually it has been every week this year, asks if this is the week for Dale Earnhardt Jr to finally win. Sure he could. But there are a lot of other competitors to make it a slam dunk. One to watch is Kyle Busch, who was dominant at Daytona, but Talladega hasn’t treated Shrub well in the past. I wanted to pick Tony Stewart for the third straight week, but that’s boring. So I went with the next best thing: Denny Hamlin.

Don’t forget to enter the 50 Years of Daytona DVD contest.

Hot dogs, paperclips and grandfather clocks. In a word association game, most people would be clueless about the relationship. For a NASCAR fan, the response would be an emphatic ‘Martinsville’. The famous (infamous?) hot dogs, the tight paperclip-shaped track and the unique grandfather clock trophy, a race at Martinsville serves plenty of character to the NASCAR crowed.

The first Martinsville race took place in 1949 when the place was still a dirt track. Red Byron beat 14 other drivers to win. Byron and his Toyota Camry Oldsmobile beat second place Lee Petty by 3 laps. The purse was $3,800 which might cover the cost of gas today.

Martinsville might be the slowest track on the Cup circuit but it packs a lot of excitement. Maybe ISC should use that as a selling point. “Catch all the action at NASCAR’s slowest track!” It’s not quite as sexy as Atlanta touting the fastest track or Darlington being the track too tough to tame, but a claim is a claim, right? Slow isn’t a trait that marketers love, but in one sense it is a benefit. Slower speeds bring better racing. It’s a theory several people believe would translate to speedways too.

Numbers and Notes

• If Lowes Motorspeedway is Jimmie Johnson’s house, then Martinsville is like his vacation cabin in the woods. He has four career wins including three straight. In 12 starts he has 11 top tens and eight top 5’s with an average finish of 6.2.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr is the best driver never to win a grandfather clock. He has seven top fives in 16 starts but zero wins. Anyone questioning his driver talent should simply refer to his 2006 run when he finished 4th without the luxury of his front fenders or bumper. He has a great chance to break through this weekend.

• Since 1998, Kurt Busch is the only driver to win races at Bristol and Martinsville in the same season. In 2002 Busch won the spring Bristol race and the fall Martinsville event. While both are short tracks, the actual setups are worlds apart. Bristol relates closer to Dover while Martinsville is more similar to Loudon or Phoenix. That means recent history is against Jeff Burton, but it’s more coincidence than restricting success at both tracks.

• A quick glance at the entry list shows 47 cars entered, meaning only four will miss the race. Michael McDowell will make his Cup debut, stepping into the Robert Parrish (#00) car for Michael Waltrip Racing. Meanwhile teammate David Reutimann slides over to the #44 car. Aric Almirola continues in the #8 car after his strong top ten run at Bristol. Watch out for Ken Schrader in the #49 car. Although the sun is quickly setting on both BAM Racing and Schrader, Kenny can still compete at short tracks and Martinsville is probably his best track at this point.

  Teams needing to qualify on speed this week are #01 Regan Smith, #08 Tony Raines, #10 Patrick Carpentier, #21 Bill Elliott (past champion provisional is in effect), #22 Dave Blaney, #34 John Andretti, #40 Dario Franchitti, #45 Kyle Petty, #49 Ken Schrader, #78 Joe Nemechek and #84 Mike Skinner.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers Picks

My Pick to Win

Tony Stewart is a very reasonable pick, he always runs well at Martinsville. It would also be easy to take Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon. Instead I’ll take Dale Earnhardt Jr to finally get off the schnide (any idea what a schnide is or how Jr got on it in the first place?) and win his first points race in almost two years.