Trouble in Turn2

The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

Jeff Burton is getting a caterpillar for 2009. With AT&T’s sponsorship exemption expiring after 2008, Richard Childress Racing had to find a new sponsor for the #31 car. The answer came from the yellow and black colors of Caterpillar. Given Burton’s recent success and personality that must have been a tough sell. Interestingly it was his brother Ward that won the 2002 Daytona 500 with a CAT sponsored Bill Davis Car.

Of course what is good for RCR is bad news for another team, in this case Bill Davis. Caterpillar had been with the fledging BDR team since 1999. They stuck with the organization through some very lean years first when they lost manufacturer support in 2004 and then when the team completely stumbled out of the blocks with Toyota last year. Now Caterpillar is moving to a team that is more likely to get the brand back in the spotlight. It’s hard to fault CAT for making a wise business move, but it’s also easy to sympathize with BDR. It’s always tough to lose a seven or eight-digit sponsor, but it’s even tougher to absorb when the sponsor moves to a rival team. It’s just the latest example of the elite Cup teams getting richer. Whether it’s a sponsorship deal or a top driver switching teams, the sport is becoming increasingly top heavy.

In the past year, longstanding Cup sponsors have dumped smaller teams for larger, more successful teams. CAT joins Budweiser, M&M’s and General Mills as longtime Cup sponsors to switch teams within the last year. Sponsors moving from one team to another is not a new thing in NASCAR, but it hasn’t been seen as much in recent years that were filled with expansion and splendor. In the last five years many teams were able to attract new companies to NASCAR as the sport transitioned from tobacco, automotive and alcohol into technology, financial institutes and other new markets. Even when a company got out of the sport, others were willing to jump in as replacements. With an economic slowdown/recession, sponsorship dollars are not flowing as freely. That means increased competition for the sponsors that do stay in the sport.

While sponsors have changed teams before, the trend is apparently accelerating. It’s no longer good enough to simply have exposure in the sport. Companies now want to be on the hood of cars that are leading laps, challenging for wins and most of all securing spots in the Chase. The problem is that there are only 12 Chase spots and usually only 10-15 drivers win a race each year. For the teams like RCR, Joe Gibbs, Roush-Fenway and Hendrick, it’s pretty easy to list your credentials and justify a $10 million sponsorship, when compared with Petty Enterprises who hasn’t won a race in almost ten years. What sponsor wouldn’t choose one the top tier teams?

This is not to say there is an answer to this or it can be stopped. Every team in NASCAR is an independent contractor. It’s hard to see what NASCAR can or should do to help, but it’s clear that this is a problem that will only get worse. Even if the Car of Tomorrow could completely level the playing field, without funding for the teams it won’t matter. The same elite teams will continue to win the majority of the races and championships and control the largest pieces of the revenue pie.

What do you think? Can something be done to help the “havenots”? Should something be done or is it just a case of economics?

Alan Tays of the Palm Beach Post wrote something about Momentum. He must not be a very good writer to agree with me and think that Kasey Kahne and the #9 team worked hard for their wins. After all, it’s a proven fact that Kasey Kahne won three races because the fans love him and bestowed confidence upon him.

Enjoy the weekend and give a big bearhug to your father.

I always used to refer to Dover’s track as Bristol on Steroids. Of course now that is probably cause for a congressional hearing and it would only drag Miles the Monster through the mud. Dover is an exciting track because it’s made of concrete, tough to pass and drivers can get frustrated. One of my favorite finishes of any race in recent years was the duel between Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth. Burton was on fresh tires but Kenseth made it impossible to pass until the very end. Not only is Dover a track that’s enhanced beyond normal tracks, but so is the name of the race: Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks.

What Happened Last Year

Rain pushed the race to Monday morning and Martin Truex Jr led 216 laps to score his first career Cup win. Unforutnately for Truex, the win was overshadowed by two other events. Kurt Busch was parked after confronting Tony Stewart in the pits and nearly hitting a crew member. Did I mention he was still in his car?

The race also ended on a sad tone when it was announced that Bill France Jr had passed away.

Five Drivers who love Dover

Ryan Newman has 4 poles, 3 wins, 6 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s in 12 career starts. He was a top two car almost the entire race last spring, but unfortunately Martin Truex Jr was simply dominant.

Jimmie Johnson 3 wins, 4 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in his career at Dover. Johnson almost ran down Truex in last spring’s race but suffered a flat tire in the final green flag run.

Matt Kenseth 1 win in 2006 and 5 top 5’s to boot. Kenseth has led 549 laps since 2004.

Kyle Busch For people that are tired of seeing Shrub run up front and threaten for wins, they might want to turn away. He owns the 5th best driver rating at Dover, 101.5. He has 4 top 5’s in six career starts and probably would have had a fifth top 5 if not for an engine failure at the fall 2006 race.

Greg Biffle won the 2005 spring race. In the last six Dover races he has the highest average driver rating (113.7) among all Cup drivers. He also has 3 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 11 career races. Biffle tends to excel at the tight, challenging tracks like Darlington and Dover.

One driver who doesn’t

It’s not that Tony Stewart doesn’t like Dover–he’s won two races– but lately he hasn’t had a lot of fun. In 2006 he had to drive with a broken shoulder blade before getting replaced by Ricky Rudd. Last spring he was headed for a top ten finish when he got together with Kurt Busch and both cars wrecked. That of course set off Busch who used his car to confront Stewart and his crew in the pits. In the last six races Stewart has a 67.7 driver rating, which is almost unheard of for a driver like Smoke.

Other Notes

• Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other team. The last HMS driver to win was Jimmie Johnson in 2005 when they used a tricked-out, although technically legal, shock package. And by technically legal, I mean that NASCAR outlawed the package immediately after the race.

• Mark Martin has led more laps (1799) at Dover than the total number of laps run of 16 drivers on the entry list. That shows two things. There are a lot of drivers with less than three Cup seasons of experience, and two, Mark Martin is awesome.

• The date sneaked up on us, but Sunday is Fox’s final broadcast for 2008. Aside from the Digger nonsense, it has been an outstanding run for the Fox crew. The ball gets passed to TNT for Pocono. Take that for what it’s worth.

• Joey Logano! Joey Logano! Mark Martin has been touting Logano as Cup ready since 2005. Even with Martin’s solid recommendation, the expectations and hype surrounding Logano are nothing short of outrageous (name another Busch East driver that has their own diecasts for sale). Logano’s much anticipated NASCAR Nationwide debut happens this Saturday, and for those that haven’t heard of him, he’s like NASCAR’s answer to LeBron James. Except that LeBron looked like he was a 29 year old linebacker when he entered the NBA at the age of 18. So far in his young driving career Logano has won in almost every series, but the Nationwide series is his biggest challenge yet. The trouble is I think some people will expect him to have immediate success and if he doesn’t, might label him a bust faster than you can say Casey Atwood. We all need to settle down, he hasn’t even made a Cup driver like Denny Hamlin mad yet.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth If Kenseth is going to rebound this season, he’d better start now. His record at Dover is excellent in recent years.

Chump: Kevin Harvick: It’s doubtful that Harvick will finish in the 30’s, but it’s equally doubtful that he’ll finish in the top ten.

Sleeper: Mark Martin: His record speaks for itself (4 wins, 20 top 5’s, 27 top 10’s). Plus, wouldn’t it be funny to see Martin pose in Victory Lane with Miles the Monster?

Who Will Win?

Kyle Busch is really, really good at Dover. I thought about Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, but something is off with Roush lately. Biffle’s pit crew isn’t reliable enough at this point. Dale Earnhardt Jr has shown he can run in the top 5 and lead laps in any and every race, but he is hit or miss at Dover. Right now it’s Shrub’s world.

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.

Elevators and Imitators

Eleven races into the season is almost one third of the way home. Some teams are exceeding expectations while others are underachieving. That’s obvious enough. While the points show one picture, the driver ratings can reveal some differences. A driver with a high driver rating shows

Carl Edwards is 4th in driver rating but sits in 7th place in the standings. Obviously without the 100 point penalty Edwards would be 4th in points. Jeff Gordon is 10th in points but owns the 7th best driver rating. A mechanical failure at Daytona and a nasty crash at Las Vegas erased otherwise strong runs at these tracks. It highlights how damaging engine failures and bad finishes can be to a driver’s points. Outperforming your points total is a good sign for the rest of the summer. I fully expect both Edwards and Gordon to climb higher in the standings and score more top 5’s.

Jeff Burton is second in the points but 8th in driver rating. It’s pretty clear that Burton’s great start is due more to compiling points and avoiding trouble than it is having fast, dominant cars. Avoiding trouble is obviously a testament to Burton’s skill, but it’s harder to sustain than simply running in the top five every week. Every driver will lose an engine, get caught up in a wreck or get a flat tire at the wrong time. Making your own luck by having top five cars every week is a lot more reliable than trying to outlast everyone and sneaking into the top ten or top five.

Elevators: Drivers with the biggest positive differences between points and driver rating
Casey Mears +6
Elliott Sadler +5
Dave Blaney +5
Matt Kenseth +4

Imitators: Drivers with the biggest negative differences between points and driver rating
David Gilliland -7
Clint Bowyer -6
Jeff Burton -6
Bobby Labonte -5
Travis Kvapil -4

The numbers give a decent snapshot of who is running well compared to finishing well. Maybe over or underachieving is the wrong word. Drivers deserve credit for passing as many cars as they can, with whatever method they can. The only point of these numbers is to get a glimpse of which drivers are capable of a strong summer or who might be ripe for a tumble.

Things can obviously change. The CoT is far from perfected, so there is a great opportunity for teams to find new advantages. Burton and RCR could suddenly find something in a test that pushes their cars closer to the front. Or maybe, in the copycat world of NASCAR, everyone might simply catch up to Gibbs and Roush and even the playing field. Younger drivers will likely gain more confidence and experience which could lead to better results. An older driver might get a new crew chief that rejuvenates a team. A team that suffers from bad luck suddenly feels the need to change personnel, resulting in even worse performances. There are tons of variables that could change the numbers.

So who do you think could climb the ladder or go down the chute this summer?

It feels like the Cup boys were just at Daytona, but eight races later the year is one fourth over. I’ve already discussed a few things we’ve learned so far, but it’s time to check out a few teams and drivers and hand out some grades for the quarter. It’s not a final grade (NASCAR is on semesters, right?), but more of a progress report.

These grades aren’t based strictly on performance, but more on preseason expectations. So a car or team expected to run in the thirties that is running in the teens or twenties is a bigger deal than Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch running well. It’s not a surprise that those two are winning races.

What is it about Virginia drivers at their hometown tracks, Richmond and Martinsville? Sunday gave the state plenty to be proud of. Denny Hamlin won his first Cup race in his home state, a victory he said was without a doubt the biggest of his young career. Hamlin’s love for his local tracks is obvious. From his visible disappointment of past misses to his prominent support during last year’s Virginia Tech tragedy.

Another Virginian Jeff Burton nearly took home his second straight win, but held on for a third place. Burton also assumed the overall points lead for the first time this season. As impressive as Hamlin and Burton were, the day’s most impressive run might have belonged to Emporia, VA native Elliott Sadler.

Sadler suffered through back problems all weekend, painful enough for the team to keep subsitute driver Dennis Setzer on standby. Sadler stayed in the car and ground out 500 laps and a 15th place finish.

“You got to give the guy lot of credit. I mean pushing on that brake pedal a thousand times out there like that is not easy no matter what the conditions are like. And I’ve had some back issues, you know, in the past. Not quite that bad. But here and the road courses, places you don’t want to go to with a sore back,” said Jeff Gordon about Sadler’s gutty drive.

In many sports, players are willing to sit out with less serious injuries, but NASCAR drivers are in a different situation. Admittedly sponsors and points play a big factor in drivers getting in the cars each week, but that doesn’t diminish the physical toughness they have to drive in discomfort all afternoon. It’s one thing to simply drive for 250 miles scrunched into a car not known for comfort, but then add 42 other cars and the inevitable contact for three plus hours and it’s more impressive.

“I feel pretty good. I appreciate Dennis Setzer working with us the last two days giving me a little break on Friday and Saturday and that made a big difference today. I took a few Tylenol and I felt great during the race. I’m a little sore. I’ll definitely be feeling this in the morning. My back did not get any worse during the race; it stayed at the same level of soreness the whole time.”

I’m sure Sadler would have tried to drive at any track, but considering it was a home race for him had to be added incentive.

• Hendrick cars took 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th. Granted, Hendrick cars always run well at Martinsville, but can we finally stop talking about a mythical Hendrick slump? Dale Earnhardt Jr, Gordon and Johnson all sit inside the top 12. Prior to Johnson getting clipped by Ryan Newman, it was looking like a Hendrick sweep was possible. The wins will come.

• Martinsville is a tough race for anyone, but doubly rough for a rookie debut. Michael McDowell ran on the lead lap for 400+ miles but ran into trouble when the leaders closed in. After giving Jeff Burton a tough time, he then spun from a flat tire to finish three laps down in 26th place. To pile on, he drew the ire of Burton, one of the calmest and most level-headed drivers in the sport.

• What was up with Matt Kenseth? He was involved in at least three accidents, including an on-track spat with David Gilliland. That move resulted in NASCAR holding Kenseth for two laps. It’s no secret Kenseth doesn’t run well at Martinsville, but he sure didn’t improve the situation today.

• Jamie McMurray had a very solid weekend, qualifying fifth and then spending 499 of 500 laps in the top 15. His eighth place finish returned him to the top 35, knocking David Reutimann and the #44 team from their safe perch. Regan Smith also had a solid run, finishing 14th and dislodging Sam Hornish Jr from the top 35. It was by far Smith’s best race of the season.

• There are several reasons I enjoy the Martinsville races, but here’s one I realized today. It’s not a matter of keeping your car clean, it’s keeping it cleaner than everyone else. It’s great to see the top five cars all have donuts and dents on them, yet still run well. It’s not scientific, it just looks cool.

Check out more racing news and opinion at Racing Nation.

What does Joe Gibbs Racing have to do to win at Bristol? Last spring at Bristol the three Gibbs cars led 443 of 500 laps only to have fuel pump issues that derailed the teams’ cars. In the August race Denny Hamlin had a fast car but blew an engine. This year the three cars led 372 laps, including 267 for Tony Stewart and again mechanical struck two of the three cars. First, after making his way to the front, Kyle Busch lost the power steering and wrecked. Then Denny Hamlin had the lead with 2 laps to go and his fuel pickup failed, allowing Jeff Burton to slip past for the lead.

Oh yeah. And Tony Stewart’s hopes—and his car– got sent packing when Kevin Harvick climbed the racetrack and bumped him into the wall. It all added up to a wild finish and more disappointment for JGR.

As JGR bobbled, Richard Childress Racing was there to pounce. The three cars finished 1-2-3 led by Burton. The finish only accented the fact the the Childress cars have improved over last year. While all three cars made the Chase, it was more a matter of surviving races than running at the front. Through five races the cars have already led 193 laps. Last year the cars led a measly 737 total laps. It’s a long season, but RCR has shown almost as much improvement as the Roush cars. Burton, Harvick and Bowyer are all adept at avoid trouble, so adding stronger cars to the mix makes RCR great optimism for the season.

Top 35 Derby

The top 35 is now set for Martinsville and a big name from a big team will have to qualify on speed. Jamie McMurray’s 43rd place finish cost him his spot in the top 35. McMurray hasn’t finished better than 22nd in the first five races, but has only one crash. The rest of the poor finishes, including his 40th at Atlanta, were the result of slow racecars. As well as the other Roush-Fenway cars have run in 2008, the #26 has been lousy.

McMurray shouldn’t have a problem qualifying for races and re-entering the top 35 (he’s only 4 points shy of 35th place Sam Hornish Jr.), but the fact that he is this far back is troubling. It also raises long term concerns for the #26 team. Crown Royal is a big money sponsor and can’t be pleased with their return on investment. Don’t forget Roush-Fenway also must eliminate a team after 2008 to comply with NASCAR’s cap. McMurray’s season is far from over, in fact Casey Mears was at a similar crossroads last year (and is again), and he bounced back to score a win and finish 15th. McMurray

Kyle Petty, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Dave Blaney also failed to retain a spot in the top 35. That sets up two weeks of wrangling about owners points, past champion’s provisionals and whether NASCAR has any kind of limits on what teams can do (more on this tomorrow).

Other Notes and Thoughts

• In Burton’s last three wins he has led a total of nine laps, all at the end of races. 6 at Dover in 2006, 1 at Texas in 2007 and the final two at Bristol. Talk about leading at the right time.

• I appreciate that NASCAR begins every race with an invocation, it’s a nice salute to the family values that the sport holds dear. Dropping sponsor’s names during the prayer is too far, however.

• Chris Myers said Bristol sells out faster than a Larry the Cable Guy concert. Apparently that is the standard for speed now. Maybe this is out of context, but it seems like a very stereotypical comment about NASCAR fans. I’m sure some NASCAR fans like Larry the Cable Guy, but somehow remarks like Myers’ only cement the idea of a NASCAR fan as lowest common denominator intelligence.

• I usually don’t complain about commercials and when breaks are taken, but Fox knew a competition yellow would fly at lap 50. So what do they do? Break under green flag racing at lap 40, then return just in time for the lap 50 caution. It’s these types of decisions that draws fans’ ire.

• The lengthy postrace coverage probably had more to do with filling time and keeping people from switching to basketball, but wouldn’t it be great if that happened after every race? It’s probably unnecessary to interview Jeff Burton’s entire family, but interviewing as many as nine or ten drivers was great.

• Moving the off-week back to March is a fantastic idea. Now I can devote my entire weekend to the NCAA tourney instead of the frantic flipping I usually do this time of year. I love it when sports dovetail together so nicely. As for my worth-less-than-the-price-of-this-bandwidth picks: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and Wisconsin. Sleeper? Let’s go with Clemson.

• Finally, if you are already tired of certain NASCAR commercials, they pale in comparison to the brutal ads during the NCAA tourney. From the classic yet annoying Looby Lawn to the uppity Cingular guy and every obnoxious chain restaurant in America (I’m looking at you Applebee’s) the spots are absolutely dreadful and worse, repetitive. Be thankful for the quality and variety of commercials, NASCAR fan.

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