Trouble in Turn2

If you missed Sunday’s race at Pocono here is a quick recap in a segment I like to call, “Pocono in a nutshell”: Carl Edwards won(again) the race on fuel mileage, Mark Martin was undone by no fault of his own (again), Jimmie Johnson looked strong(again) and the Deathstar(Kyle Busch) appears to be penetrable(slightly). Meanwhile my kitchen remodel is coming along nicely.

Pocono ended i a fuel mileage race which is becoming a trend this year. I have a theory why. The CoT is so hard to drive that teams are willing to take more risks with strategy because it’s so difficult to pass under green. The fact that there are fewer cautions late with the car also means longer green flag runs at long speedways like Pocono and Michigan which also contributes.

• Nice run for Chad McCumbee in the #45 Petty Enterprises car. He finished a career high 17th on Sunday. It was only the 3rd top 20 of the season for the team as they scramble to crack the top 35. They still sit in 40th place and Kyle Petty will return to the seat next week at Watkins Glen. Last year when Petty drove at the Glen he got in a wreck, finished last and injured himself after slamming his hand in frustration. In an unrelated story Petty Enterprises is ordering extra steering wheel padding.

• One of the silliest graphics during a broadcast is the “estimated fuel gauge”. Whenever there is a fuel mileage race, the networks pull that one out. It’s inaccurate, doesn’t really show the viewer anything they didn’t already know and usually all the drivers listed on the graphic are all low on fuel. Thanks for the info, TV.

• Speaking of no fuel, did anyone else think it was funny when Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon drag raced to the finish line as both ran out of fuel? It was like a photo finish in speedwalking.

• Kevin Harvick regained his spot in the top 12 with a 4th place finish. He spun on the first lap, but incredibly didn’t hit anything. Despite the 4th place result, he didn’t gain many points on his closest competition because David Ragan finished 5th, Clint Bowyer 6th and Matt Kenseth led a lap and finished 11th. Only 19 points separate the four drivers with only five races left. While everyone from TV, news and nerdy, stats-based bloggers will talk about the Chase and how close the points battle is, Harvick will take a different approach, “You just go out and race as fast as you can. That’s about all you can do.” And Harvick is exactly right. Everything else is out of his control. According to Sports Club Stats, Harvick has a 69.2% chance of making the Chase while Ragan in 14th has a less than 50% chance. It’s going to stay crazy until Richmond.

For more NASCAR mumbo jumbo, check out Racing Nation.

How to Piss off a Cup Driver: Part I

Last week Rusty Wallace claimed Ryan Newman was fired by Penske instead of a mutual parting. Newman didn’t appreciate his former teammate/bicker buddy sticking his nose into Newman’s business. Wallace went on to say that Roger Penske didn’t appreciate Newman’s criticisms of the company and the team’s performance.

Let me take this moment to remind Rusty that Penske has been a second tier team for years (prior to Wallace’s retirement) and Newman hasn’t been a front runner since 2004. Whether Newman used the proper platform for his criticisms is one thing, but it’s hard to say the criticisms are misplaced. Tune in next week when Newman will reveal the real reason why Wallace was removed from the ESPN booth.

How to Piss off a Cup Driver: Part II

To the likely bemusement of the Diecast Dude, ESPN.com’s NASCAR crew made someone mad again. This time it was Martin Truex Jr when David Newton tried to report that Truex had signed a new contract with DEI. Truex’s frank, “That’s bullsh*t” response left little room for interpretation that the report was false. Truex added that the two sides were still negotiating. A word of advice to Newton (beyond reporting facts), when Truex gets pissed off, he can be quite literal.

Jimmie and Randy: Homies

As a Vikings fan I was fortunate to see Randy Moss’ greatest seasons so despite his occasional pouting and one bizarre traffic incident, I still have a certain fondness for Moss. He is not a bad guy and can be pretty funny. Take the time he scored the infamous Mooning Touchdown at Green Bay (which has it’s own partially-justified story behind it). He was fined $10,000 by the NFL and when a reporter asked how he paid his fine, Moss simply said, “Straight cash homey.” I still use that line all the time.

Now that Moss is involved with NASCAR I picture him paying all of the team’s bills with straight cash, homey. And that is exactly how I think he convinced Jimmie Johnson to drive Moss’ truck at Bristol.

Off the Beaten Path

On the personal side of this blog, things have been pretty busy. The second Pocono roughly marks the 2 year birthday of Trouble in Turn2. If it lasts another 2 years, I’ll be amazed.

If you are looking for something fresh for your iPod, try Eddie Vedder’s soundtrack for Into the Wild. Most of the songs are only 1 or 2 minutes, but they are really good. If you haven’t seen the movie, that too is excellent. It makes you want to go camping…for a year.

Have a good weekend. I will again be rating the Pocono race versus undesirable home improvement projects. This week it’s installing a dishwasher!

Until last year the second Pocono race fell prior to the Brickyard 400. Under that arrangement we all believed that Pocono served as a tuneup for the Brickyard. We could catch a glimpse of who might run well at one of NASCAR’s elite events. Nevermind the fact that only two drivers, Jeff Gordon (’98) and Bill Elliott (’02) have won a Pocono race and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. We wanted to believe that the second Pocono had a place of meaning on the schedule. Now it’s the week after the Brickyard, granting it slightly more importance than the Pro Bowl in relation to the Super Bowl. It’s a points paying race, but boy is it hard for a fan to get excited about it. The one advantage Pocono does have is that it promises to be feature the longest green flag runs in three weeks and tires shouldn’t be an issue. I realize I’m hard on Pocono, but I also admit I will watch with the same weekly interest and the hope for a good race. The spring race was one of the more exciting Pocono finishes in recent years in fact.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr won his first Cup pole since 2002 but couldn’t hold back Kurt Busch. Busch led 175 of 200 laps and cruised to an easy victory. The race paralleled the points battle between the two drivers that also saw Busch eclipse Earnhardt Jr for 12th place and the final Chase spot. The race was also notable for the absence of Robby Gordon. He was busy sitting in a corner on timeout thanks to his antics at the Montreal Busch race the day before.

Notes

AJ Allmendinger and Red Bull Racing are only one or two solid runs from cracking the top 35 in owner points. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the first two races of the season and was then replaced by Mike Skinner for the next six. After returning to the car at Talladega, Allmendinger has run very well and only sits 63 points shy of 35th place Scott Riggs.

Chad McCumbee will drive the #45 for Petty Enterprises this weekend. McCumbee has failed to qualify at Texas and Dover, but did finish 25th in a Pocono race last year while subbing for Kyle Petty. Petty will return to the car next week at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t look like Petty Enterprises is in a huge rush to get Petty back in the seat which is the strongest signal yet that Petty is nearing retirement. Whether it’s Kyle Petty’s decision or not, more time out of the car will allow him to devote more time and energy to greater things like the Victory Junction Gang Camp. Petty definitely has some very personal reasons for remaining behind the wheel of the #45 and if it NASCAR rides were based on merit over performance Petty would have a ride for life.

5 Drivers Who Like Pocono

Jimmie Johnson has two wins in 13 starts. He only has one finish worse than 15th in his career which includes 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Johnson has run well all summer and more wins should follow his Indy triumph (please don’t call it momentum).

Kurt Busch has seven top fives including 2 wins and four 2nd place finishes.

Denny Hamlin won his first two times at Pocono in 2006. Since then he has never finished worse than 6th and has led 300 laps in only five starts.

Tony Stewart owns the third best driver rating(102.2) over the last seven Pocono events. He led 14 laps at the June race and appeared set for a top 5 run but was caught speeding on pit row, pinning him a lap down and relegated to 35th.

Ryan Newman has won the pole twice, the race once and has five other top 5’s. His 13.9 average finish is also above average.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kurt Busch See above. No matter what the rest of Busch’s season looks like (and right now it looks bleak), he always finds a way to run well at the Triangle of Tedium.

Chump: Clint Bowyer Bowyer hasn’t run well at speedways all season and that trend will likely continue at Pocono.

Sleeper: AJ Allmendinger: Check out his recent speedway driver ratings: Pocono I(95.2), Michigan (79.7), Chicago (83.2), Indy (98.4). That’s a driver ready for some top ten finishes.

Check out One Bad Wheel for more Fantasy news and info on Sleepers.

Who Will Stay Awake Win?

Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s important to remind everyone of the cardinal rule of Fantasy sports: Don’t Outsmart Yourself. Over the past few weeks I have grown tired of choosing Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson to win races each week. So this past week for the Brickyard I decided to tab a darkhorse, Brian Vickers to win. Vickers finished 42nd with an engine failure. While Vickers has certainly impressed this year and is a front runner on speedways, Red Bull Racing isn’t quite ready for prime time and it cost me.

That means this week I’m sticking my hand back into the heavy favorites hat and pulling out a name.

In five races Denny Hamlin has a 130.4 driver rating. That is not the result of one fast car or lucking out. Denny Hamlin is simply awesome at Pocono. After a pit road mistake cost him the race at Indy, you can be sure that was a point of emphasis at the Gibbs shop this week.

On Monday morning at the water cooler the NASCAR fans that have been talking about Kyle Busch all summer will be talking about tires. In November, the same fans might be talking about Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johnson. Whatever struggles the organization had early in the season are no longer an issue. Jimmie Johnson was in a class by himself at Indianapolis, leading 71 laps and winning his second Brickyard 400. As I have written before, Jimmie Johnson is still the reigning Cup holder. It is his until someone takes it from him. He and the #48 team have their speedway program in order after the slow start. It’s not just Johnson’s team either. Jeff Gordon ran in the top five all day, led 7 laps and had a 120.1 driver rating while finishing 5th. Dale Earnhardt Jr had a very fast car but had to play catchup the entire race after an early flat tire put him a lap down.

Thanks to the tire wear issues, the race was reduced to a series of heat races. With green flag runs lasting no longer than 12 laps thanks to crashes and NASCAR dictated competition cautions, there were 11 caution flags that created essentially 12 segments. Despite the erratic pace to the day, Johnson always found his way to the front. Of the 12 “segments”, Johnson was the leader entering the pits on 8 of them not to mention when he took the checkered flag. While others tried pit strategy to gain the lead, Johnson simply drove to the front with ease. That is the kind of performance it will take to beat Kyle Busch during the Chase. Sunday Hendrick Motorsports showed that they can still produce dominant cars, and my guess is that there’s more where that came from.

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All the attention right now is focused on Kyle Busch and rightfully so given his incredible season. That’s probably fine with Jimmie Johnson. Johnson is probably the most invisible 2-time champion in the history of NASCAR. Johnson has only one win so far in 2008, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t running well. Fans, writers and broadcasters might not notice Johnson like in past years, but when September rolls around, the #48 car will be in the thick of the championship hunt.

He began this season with a wreck at Daytona, a 2nd place at California and one race, Las Vegas, where he and the team were out to lunch. Johnson had a 47.1 driver rating at Vegas, which is totally unacceptable for a team like the #48. At that point the team realized they were behind on the Car of Tomorrow (CoT) and dedicated themselves to more testing. The Hendrick teams conceded that last year’s Chase set back the #24 and #48 cars. It cost them testing time on the CoT speedway program last fall and both teams struggled in the early months of the season.Some teams might have dismissed the poor run at Las Vegas and kept things unchanged for a few weeks, but crew chief Chad Knaus and Johnson were willing to strive for improvement based only on three races.

The testing didn’t result in wins, but the progress can be seen. He led 65 laps and had a 130.6 driver rating at Texas, the first intermediate track after the team’s intense testing. The next week he again had a driver rating of 130, led 120 laps and won the race at Phoenix. Then he led 35 laps at Lowe’s before suffering a blown engine while leading the race with 49 to go. The engine failure was the first since 2005 for Johnson. Despite his DNF and 39th place finish he still had a 94.5 driver rating, showing how strong he was.

This summer has seen Johnson have a driver rating better than 100 in 5 of 7 races. He had top three cars at Pocono, Michigan, Loudon and Chicagoland. A win is coming and it should come before the Chase begins. He has won at Indianapolis, Pocono, California and Richmond. After a sluggish spring, Johnson is back to being a threat to win on a weekly basis, regardless of the track.

Chad Knaus is the master of playing the game to his advantage. Last year they won 6 races before the Chase and took several risks in others in order to accumulate as many bonus points as possible. Many people saw Jeff Gordon with a huge points lead prior to the Chase, but Johnson and Knaus had the most wins. They also saved some of their best cars for the Chase. I suspect Knaus is running a similar plan for this year’s Chase.

Even if Johnson doesn’t win another race before the Chase, he has made up large deficits in previous years and can do it again. Since 2004 when the Chase began, Johnson has won 11 races during the Chase. Only one other driver (Greg Biffle has four wins) has won more than three races. The tracks set up incredibly well for Johnson. He has won at eight of the ten Chase tracks that account for 21 total wins. Only Homestead and Kansas have eluded Johnson, although he led the most laps at the 2006 Kansas race and finished 2nd in the 2004 Homestead race.

So go ahead, pick Kyle Busch to win every remaining race, the championship and America’s hear (just kidding). Go on and say that Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt Jr will pose serious threats for the title, or that Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth will wriggle into contention, but to me Jimmie Johnson is still the champion until someone else takes it from him. And for every driver and fan that isn’t paying attention, Johnson is ready to sneak up on everyone. Again.

In the last four races dating back to Sonoma we have seen Kyle Busch in a nutshell. He has won three races at three completely different tracks and also thrown in a nice scuffle at Loudon for good measure. Since his crash at Pocono (and the accompanying nonsense about his lack of focus) he has seen his lead grow from 21 points to 262. If the Chase started today he would have a 50 point lead over Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

After Kyle Busch’s first win of the season at Atlanta, I compared his fourth Cup season (at age 23) to that of Jeff Gordon’s 1995 season. In that season, Gordon’s 3rd in Cup (age 23), he won 7 races, had 17 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s, and won his first of four championships. At the time it seemed like a fair comparison. Through three years, Busch’s numbers were very similar to Gordon’s at the same age. Of course, thanks to Busch’s last four races, he is on a completely different plane. Busch is beginning to look like the Jeff Gordon of 1996-1998 when he won 10, 10 and 13 races respectively.

It’s undeniable that Busch is having a great season, but let’s hold off with the “Legendary” labels for now. The 2007 New England Patriots could speak intelligently on the subject. While some fans still feel the Chase is contrived, it’s one more challenge that Busch and any other driver has conquer. Of course Busch is doing everything he can in the regular season to gain the NASCAR equivalent of home field advantage throughout the playoffs by racing up as many bonus points as possible. Even if his 50 point lead holds up or grows, he will still face serious competition during the final ten races. Remember, 50 points is the difference between 1st and 8th place. Carl Edwards is stout on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks that litter the Chase schedule. Dale Earnhardt has run in the top 5 for the entire season and Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into to form (he will win at least one to two more races before the Chase starts). Even teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have the tools to challenge Busch for the title during the final stretch. Go ahead and pile the compliments on Kyle Busch’s plate right now, he’s had a dream season to this point. But be careful to assume that Busch will win continue winning races at this pace or that the Chase is only a formality.

• Last week I questioned the need for more night races, but Chicago was a good show. It was a lot tougher to pass at Chicago than some of the similar tracks earlier this year and drivers really had to work for several laps to set up passes. Whether that is from the cooler night temperatures, Goodyear’s improved tires, the quality of the Chicago or a combination of factors, it was a good race to watch. The incredible sunset was a nice touch too.

• Speaking of tough to pass, is there a driver that is tougher to pass than Matt Kenseth? He is so adept at finding the line where another driver wants to be and making it really difficult for other drivers. It’s nothing illegal or cheap but it’s his signature move. Other drivers try it, but no one is able to hold on for so many laps with an inferior car to the one attempting to pass.

• TNT took a commercial break while the race was under green with 17 laps left. In a race that featured a lot of tight racing and had just featured a late pass for the lead, TNT should have stayed with the final 20 laps until either the finish or a caution flag. I realize how difficult it is to time commercials and balance the coverage with paying bills, but it seemed like a poor decision. What happens if Johnson cuts a tire, or Kyle Busch wrecks trying to run Johnson down? It created a situation where a race-altering move could have been missed in the final laps of the race.

• Kevin Harvick scored his first top 5 since Richmond nine races ago. The 3rd place finish allowed him to jump 4 spots in the standings to 9th. Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer’s tailspin continued. After his win at Richmond, Bowyer sat in 4th place in the points and had scored 7 straight top tens. He now sits in 13th and only has two top tens in the last nine. The reason for Bowyer’s slide? In the first quarter of the season he ran in the top ten and top 15 avoided trouble to maximize his finishes. Now Bowyer is still running in the top 15 but has not been able to improve his position. His driver rating (79.7) is 17th best. If Bowyer hopes to make the Chase, that number will have to improve.

• Barring major catastrophe the top 5 drivers are pretty well locked into the Chase. Starting with Jeff Gordon in 6th place and back to 15th place David Ragan, there is only a 200 point gap. A lot could happen between now and Richmond to shuffle the bottom half of the Chase field.

For more NASCAR opinion plus other major racing series, check out Racing Nation.

The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. We’ll begin with the 2002 class.

2002: Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman 47 combined wins

What the class lacked in quantity was easily made up for in quality. Despite moderate results in the Busch Series, both Johnson and Newman both became Cup stars almost immediately. They both won races as rookies, and while Newman earned Rookie of the Year, Johnson actually had the better year, winning more races (3 to 1) and a higher finish in the standings (3rd). Both drivers scored 20+ top tens in their rookie seasons, proving their skill at the Cup level. 2003 they each debunked the myth of the Sophomore Slump. Newman won 8 races and driver of the year while Johnson finished third in the final standings.

Despite winning a season high 8 races in 2003, Newman has tailed off as a championship contender. Since 2003 he has only won 4 races in four and a half seasons. Although he has not reached the elite heights of NASCAR (due to a variety of reasons), Newman is a very solid driver. In six full seasons he has averaged 2 wins, 9.8 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. Plenty of drivers would take those numbers. Despite those numbers most fans would agree that Newman is talented enough to achieve even more. His point standings in the first four years were 6th, 6th, 7th and 6th, but the last two seasons he has missed the Chase. Among his accomplishments are 43 poles, which already ranks 11th on the all-time list in only six plus seasons. He also won the 2008 Daytona 500 in dramatic fashion.

If Jimmie Johnson was an unknown entering NASCAR, he has blossomed into one of the top three drivers in the sport. Johnson has won 34 races, including a Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, and the season title in 2006 and 2007. He has also never finished worse than 5th in the standings. His average stats for his first five full seasons are 5.5 wins, 14.3 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. He has also won at 15 of the 22 Cup tracks, proving his versatility. He and crew chief Chad Knaus have formed one of the longest driver-crew chief combinations and are widely regarding as one of the top pairings in the sport.

Verdict: Obviously it’s easier to assess this class because it’s older. In only 6+ seasons, Johnson is already one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport and could already begin filling out some of the details on his Hall of Fame application. It wasn’t a sure thing in 2002, however. Based on his Busch record, Johnson was a risky hire. Newman began his career with a flourish but has since struggled a bit, although that isn’t entirely his fault. As a class the two drivers have combined to win 47 races and have made the Chase 6 out of a possible 8 times. Overall this class produced one elite driver and another good driver. That’s a pretty good success rate.

This weekend TNT brings back their Wide Open coverage for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. More racing and fewer commercials sounds pretty good. What is even better is a good race at a fun track under the lights and 100 miles shorter than the Daytona 500 in February. It all adds up to one of the best race packages of the season. The Pepsi Coke Zero 400 is almost always an exciting race. Sure there was the monsoon of ought five that pushed the finish past midnight on the west coast, but most races are filled with crashes, daring passes for the lead (the lead!), and heck even some pretty cool one-off paint schemes.

And there’s something else about the plate tracks to like too. It’s the little rivalries at restrictor plate races that add the extra juice. They are four races that have very little bearing on the rest of the season, but teams often take more pride in their plate programs. The current top dogs, Gibbs and Hendrick could offer a great battle this year. So far Toyota, and more specifically Gibbs Racing have dominated the restrictor plate tracks in 2008. One win, four top fives and 57% of all the laps led at Daytona and Talladega. That’s pretty dominant. And that is why I think Hendrick Motorsports will be up to the challenge. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have all won at Daytona and are all very good in the draft. Not all of the cars will be around at the end, but that’s just part of the excitement.

What Happened Last Year

Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin wrecked each other while running 1-2 early in the race. That led to some bickering in the garage. Meanwhile Jamie McMurray edged Kurt and Kyle Busch for his first win since 2002. It was the closest finish in Daytona history (.005 seconds).

Five Drivers Who Like Daytona

Dale Earnhardt Jr won the 2001 Pepsi 400 and the 2004 Daytona 500. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 17 starts.

Tony Stewart has two summer wins and has led 531 laps in ten races. That includes 151 of 160 at the 2005 race. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 19 starts. He also is the only driver with a driver rating above 100 for the last seven Daytona races (108.1)

Jeff Gordon has six wins, most among active drivers. Gordon has recently adopted a “wait and see” approach, which worked at both Talladega events last year and almost paid off again this spring.

Jimmie Johnson has often served as Gordon’s wing man on mad dashes to the front late in races. But Johnson is perfectly capable of winning races himself. He has the highest average running position (9.8) of all drivers over the last seven races, meaning he is always in the lead pack.

Matt Kenseth owns a 92.4 driver rating and has led laps in four of the last five races at Daytona. He has scored 4 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in his career at restrictor plate tracks.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Ryan Newman His Daytona 500 win was not a fluke. Penske has provided strong cars for Daytona and Talladega and Newman and Kurt Busch work well together.

Chump: Carl Edwards Edwards is good in the draft, but has lost his patience at times and that can be costly.

Sleeper: Elliott Sadler When it comes to restrictor plate races, Sadler is excellent at avoiding wrecks, picking the right lane and being around at the end to pick up a nice finish.

Who will win?

Hendrick and Penske cars will surely be strong with a splash of RCR mixed in (watch out for Clint Bowyer). Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are typically strong at Daytona, but Ford is mired in a mini-funk right now. All of these teams will be in the lead pack, but who will win the race? Joe Gibbs. Seriously, take your pick of driver. Denny Hamlin led 32 laps and may have had the best car at the Daytona 500 if not for a pit road accident. Kyle Busch led 86 laps and could, and did, go anywhere he wanted to on the track. Tony Stewart wasn’t as good during the day, but came alive at the end of the race when the sun went down, led 16 laps and finished 3rd. The same pattern held true at Talladega when Hamlin and Stewart seemed able to do whatever they wanted at the front of the pack and Kyle Busch overcame early problems to pop up late and win. Fans of variety, surprise and parity turn away now. Kyle Busch is going to win again. Just because the winner might not be a surprise, the race should be anything but dull.

After another disappointing and undeserved finish for Tony Stewart and the #20 team, it’s easy to wonder what’s wrong this year. The truth is, while some of their finishes have been lower than usual, Stewart rarely wins before June. In his 32 career wins, he has only won four races prior to June. In the last five seasons, he has won 12 races in the summer months and 5 wins each in July and August. Whatever the reason, Tony Stewart really loves the summer. Why? It’s probably a combination of many things. He’s excellent at many of the tracks like road courses, Daytona, Chicago, Indianapolis and Loudon. Maybe the hotter weather caters more to his driving style. It might be that Gibbs does more testing in the spring and he reaps the results in the summer (that was certainly the case in 2005), or that they experiment a little more at the start of seasons with the knowledge that the #20 car is good enough to be in contention at the end of the year.

While Stewart is exceptional in the summer months, other drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch have also traditionally hit their strides when the sun comes out. Here is a breakdown of the drivers with at least three wins in the summer since 2003 [note: due to some minor schedule tweaks, some races have changed months from year to year. I used the following breakdown. June (Dover, Pocono, Michigan, Sonoma). July (Daytona, Loudon, Chicago, Pocono). August (Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Darlington/California).

I’m not sure why, but I think there’s a problem with my table, keep scrolling. Sorry

Time permitting I hope to delve further into trends like this over a whole season. Looking at things like teams or drivers that peak at the right time, most successful drivers in the Chase, etc.

It’s your turn, tell me what the numbers mean to you. Are you Smoke fans excited for July? Can Kenseth and Kurt Busch restart their seasons? Why do some drivers thrive in the heat? Or just tell me it’s hogwash.