Trouble in Turn2

Hello, my name is Glen. I’m from upstate New York. I throw a party once a year and invite all of my friends to come and hang out for the weekend. My political views are pretty balanced, sometimes I go to the left, other times I lean to the right. Not everyone is used to this balanced path and sometimes it can be frustrating for my friends with less experience at my parties. Alright, I admit it used to be fun playing tricks on these people and watching them spin and get caught in the quicksand, but I’ve matured in recent years. No more sand traps or food poisoning (sorry Tony), only good times and clean fun. Remember 2006? Both the Busch and Cup races featured fierce battles for the lead in the closing laps. So you’re all invited to join the party and hang out this weekend.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon had the dominant car and with 2 laps left he was apparently already dreaming of his Victory Lane kiss from Ingrid when he went wide on a turn allowing Tony Stewart to squeeze by for the win. Gordon wound up 9th. Of course no one cared about that on Monday morning because Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya rubbed each other’s faces after a wreck. Harvick was mad at Montoya for starting a wreck. Montoya was mad because it wasn’t his fault. So they both decided to engage in some quasi-fisticuffs.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champs: Ryan Newman Newman has three top tens in six tries. He is still a very good road course racer and won the 2005 Busch race. It might be a small stretch for a Champ pick, but this week’s options are limited.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer It’s not that Bowyer is a bad road racer, he has a 15.0 average finish at The Glen. It’s just that nearly every other top 12 driver is capable of a lot more.

Sleepers: Marcos Ambrose Kangaroo Meat is fast on road courses. The next step is showing he can avoid the ire of other top drivers and can finish the race in one piece.

Who Will Win?

Jeff Gordon is going to finish the job this year. His record on road courses one of the best in Cup history. And he won’t slip up at the end of the race this time.

Have you ever had a friend that no matter what they do can’t seem to get out of their own way? Maybe they get a raise at work, but then blow it on a new TV they can’t afford? You can’t help but slap your forehead and cover your eyes. In NASCAR that friend is Dodge. For every triumph, there seems to be self-inflicted Dodge has won three of the last six Cup races. When you throw in Kasey Kahne’s All-Star win, that’s 4 in the last seven, which is more than the manufacturer won in all of 2007. On paper, things look pretty good for Dodge and its teams. Of course reality tells a different story, and to anyone that has followed NASCAR in recent years knows how self-sabotaging the Dodge teams can be. Even during high spots, there are more problems than positives.

The big news this week is that Chip Ganassi is putting the #40 car up on cinder blocks for the rest of 2008, meaning Dario Franchitti’s Cup career will also see weeds and grass sprout around it while it sits in the backyard at Ganassi’s shop. The lack of sponsorship was the final blow for the car. While Franchitti entered NASCAR with great credentials like an Indy 500 win and an IRL championship (not to mention the Judd marketing factor), it’s pretty easy to see why companies passed on Ganassi. Their NASCAR teams stink. One Cup win since 2002, no driver has ever made the Chase and since 2005 no driver has scored more than 10 top 10’s in a season. In the middle of 2005 Ganassi announced tentative plans to expand to four cars. It never happened because Jamie McMurray successfully voided his contract and moved to Roush-Fenway, but at the time Ganassi did have enough sponsorship for all four teams. Of course that was before the mortgage crisis (remember Home 1-2-3?) and the overall economic slowdown. It’s a little surprising Franchitti was willing to come to NASCAR despite the lack of funding.

In 2006 Kasey Kahne won a series high 6 races and made the Chase for Evernham Motorsports. At the same time teammate Jeremy Mayfield struggled to stay inside the top 35, was ultimately fired in midseason and threatened legal action. The ugliness only intensified with the inappropriate relationship between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker. That ultimately played a part in the team’s abysmal 2007 season where the team realized halfway through that their season was wasted due using incorrect data to build their cars. Things are just now returning to normal, almost a year and a half later.

How about Penske Racing? In the summer of 2005 they signed one of the biggest free agents, Kurt Busch, to replace the retiring Rusty Wallace. It was the perfect driver to build upon a successful 2005 season that saw two of the three Penske cars make the Chase. Instead Penske chopped the #77 team (not due to sponsorship) and contracted back to two teams. To make things worse, the Penske teams spent the majority of the offseason and the spring trying to run the older Intrepid instead of the current Charger model. The result was-you guessed it-a wasted season. After two seasons of two cars the #77 finally returned to the track this year, but is again struggling as a new team. Had it been running continuously, the team might be a lot further along and more competitive with the other top teams at Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford.

All of the teams at Dodge (don’t forget Petty Enterprises, who is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant) have struggled in the last five years. It’s fitting given the unstable nature of Dodge. Daimler sold the company in 2007 and they are still struggling to compete. Things could only get worse for Dodge on the competition side. With factory support an unknown quantity, there is no real hope for drastic improvement on the track. And based on some of the rumors, top drivers like Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya could have other opportunities with different teams next year as well. While the wins might increase with Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch, the overall picture in the Dodge camp is pretty gloomy.

For the first 270 laps, Sunday’s race at New Hampshire was pretty tame. The leaders maintained comfortable leads with ease, the top ten positions didn’t change much and barring problems, cars were pretty much locked into a comfortable position and no one was passing. Then a caution came out when Jamie McMurray plowed through Dale Earnhardt Jr and suddenly all hell broke loose. The top drivers pitted while eight other cars stayed out, led by Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart, the dominant car for the day, pitted for two tires and was relegated to 14th on the restart. With one caution plus a pending storm it was pretty obvious that the final results had been turned upside down.

That set up a wild finish, but it wasn’t done yet. Kurt Busch jumped out on the restart, but had to battle lapped car Robby Gordon and nearly hit the outside wall. A few laps later Sam Hornish spilt Clint Bowyer to bring out the caution. Juan Pablo Montoya took the chance to controversy.

“[Busch] hit me under caution, he hit me under green and I retaliated. Did I go a little bit too far retaliating? Yeah. I told them[NASCAR officials] the only reason I did that was I was defending myself.

Somehow Busch tried to play coy and absolve himself from blame.

I got a run on him earlier and I got on the outside and he kind of kept coming up a little bit. I didn’t turn down into him and just barely touched his quarter panel. Then I got by him in three and four and he run me up the race track in the left rear. Then we came to that caution flag and he thought he beat me to the caution flag and I was just trying to get around the 40 (Dario Franchitti) car, who was in front of us there and touched him on the door and he just turned left and spun me down the front straight away. I don’t know what his beef is, but obviously NASCAR should probably fix it.

Montoya was penalized 2 laps for rough driving, dropping his final position to 32nd. His admission that the hit was intentional (which was pretty obvious on the replay) will probably cost Montoya some money, more points and probation for the remainder of the season. Montoya wasn’t going to make the Chase and is not broke so in my mind that biggest penalty is actually the probation. Why? It means Montoya won’t be able to partake in Facewashing with Harvick 2 at Watkins Glen this year. Comparing the Loudon incident with the quasi-fisticuffs from last made me realize something else. Montoya’s favorite expression, “I don’t appreciate that.” That’s getting worked into my everyday phrases. That or “My name is Juan Pablo Montoya, you killed my top 15, prepare to die.”

Some Random thoughts while avoiding the 90+ degree heat

• Bill Weber used “Strategery” when discussing pit stops. Even if it was for comedic value, it fizzled. Later he mentioned that Stewart could become the first driver to sweep the weekend and ended with a grumpy, “there’s a stat for ya’”. What’s wrong with stats? They never did anything to you. Maybe he was just sour today.

• Where was Roush? The fact that the TNT announcers called it a rebound when none of the five drivers were in the top ten is an indictment of how bad they were today.

• Casey Mears had a nice run before slipping at the end. In one sense I’m glad he didn’t score a surprising win because it spared us all headlines and nonsense about how he was more motivated this week. He still managed a top ten in back to back races for the first time this year. Watch out for Mears next weekend at Daytona. He’s good on restrictor plates and nearly won the race last year.

• By the way, Kurt Busch won the race.

• Michael Waltrip scored his first top five finish since 2005 (5th place at Pocono). It’s a huge boost not only for his effort to stay inside the top 35, but also for his sponsorship status with Napa.
  

  I’m not emotional about this, other than the fact to say it’s amazing that NAPA Auto Parts is still on my car after what we went through the last couple years. Just to do anything good for them, outside front row at Daytona, to have a finish like we did today, I just want to say thank you to them by doing well. That’s my goal, is to do good for them.

  Waltrip is often portrayed as a shill, but he really does get it. For all of his struggles in team ownership, he somehow still has large sponsors at least through this year, and he obviously realizes how fortunate he is. As an aside, Waltrip pitted two laps later than Kurt Busch and it would have been interesting to see how things would have ended without the rain stoppage.

• Question: Can you use “McMurray tried to drive through me” as a valid excuse for hitting the commitment cone on pit road?

For more racing news and opinion peep Racing Nation.

• Cue the Duck Aflac announced they will sponsor Carl Edwards in 2009. Supplemental insurance is extremely important when you break your neck doing a backflip and can’t work. Is something like that covered? I am already predicting a commercial with Edwards and the duck doing flips after a win. Either that or Edwards can take a fake swing at the duck. As part of the contract, the answer to all Aflac trivia questions is now “Carl Edwards”. The deal is also apparently the second richest sponsorship deal behind Amp and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Of course Earnhardt Jr’s deal with Amp is essentially for co-sponsorship, as the #88 hauls in additional cash from the National Guard.

• Bruton Smith bought another track, this time Kentucky Speedway. It’s a good pickup, but with Tony George owning Indiana Avenue and ISC/France Family owning Illinois Avenue, it will be very hard to get the Red Monopoly and build hotels. Since he already owns North Carolina Ave, I would have made a play for Pennsylvania Ave now and Pacific (Northwest) Ave later.

• Tom Bowles of SI.com has an interesting take on Michael Waltrip Racing.
  

  It’s no secret the driver mortgaged his financial future to move ahead with this program and that he took on an investor (Robert Kauffman) in October to salvage the team’s long-term future. But if all three sponsors bail — this is the final year of NAPA’s agreement with the No. 55 — all the investment money in the world won’t keep this program on track. And with a tough economy making sponsorship difficult, this could be the biggest-level program that winds up biting the dust.

  I guess Napa can only make so many self-deprecating commercials about how bad Waltrip runs. I don’t have the inside scoop that Bowles does, but I was surprised by this. Given SI’s credibility, I have to believe there’s some truth, but my guess is that if MWR can keep all three cars inside the top 35 Waltrip can make it work to stay in business.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr had a few interesting comments on the future of JR Motorsports. He’s considering moving his Nationwide team to Cup in 2009. If NASCAR’s second-tier series is just as costly to operate that’s a serious problem for all parties.

  He also had this to say about Martin Truex Jr:
  

  “Why would he want to come drive for me?” Earnhardt Jr. asked. “He’s in good stuff now and he’s going to have great opportunities from other people. And I would never do that to him.”

  To me, that’s a subtle way of saying DEI should be looking for a driver for 2009. Junior was clear that he wouldn’t hire Truex, but if you look at the link to the story it’s titled “Friends don’t let friends drive junk”. That could be interpreted as not hiring Truex for a startup Cup team, or implying that something is already brewing with another top Cup team.

• Just four races after a crew chief shuffle at Ganassi Racing, there is another one this week. Prior to Talladega Jimmy Elledge moved from the #41 car to Juan Pablo Montoya’s #42 team. Now Elledge has left Ganassi and Montoya is not happy. Elledge is pretty well regarded in Cup and will turn up somewhere if he hasn’t already struck a deal. One place that makes sense is JR Motorsports, since Elledge is Earnhardt Jr’s brother-in-law, although that might be too much family even for JRM.

  Meanwhile Brian Pattie moves from the Ganassi Nationwide team to head up the #42 crew. Montoya has one top ten (2nd at Talladega) while Ganassi as an organization only has two all season. Obviously things are not going well at Acronym Racing (That’s CGRwFS for the uninitiated) and Ganassi has already ripped his organization once this year. Instead of shuffling around internal crew chiefs among the teams, it might be time to look outside the organization for a different perspective.

Off the Beaten Path

A chance for me to discuss whatever else is on my mind this week. Hey, if Peter King can write about his lattes every week…

• I don’t get very political, especially in this space, but it’s inescapable right now. I saw a report that the presidential candidates have raised over $900 million dollars. It’s mind boggling and we’re not even to the official presidential race. Worse, the entire point of donating money to a candidate is for them to burn through it. With so many problems in this country and abroad, imagine how many causes a billion dollars could go to.

• I saw Zodiac last weekend. A pretty good thriller/mystery with a lot of good actors too. It’s based on the true story of the Zodiac serial killer in California and focuses on the investigation. Jake Gyllenhal and Mark Ruffalo are both really good. My one complaint was that the movie ended with a postscript. I have a TV that’s at least ten years old and I couldn’t read what it said. Even if I wanted to throw in a spoiler here, I couldn’t.

• Have a great and safe weekend and be sure to get plenty of rest on Saturday night. We’ll all need it on Sunday afternoon.

Go fast or go home. It’s a phrase no team wants mentioned in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the teams that have not cracked the top 35 in 2008 owner points will have to qualify on speed for one of the final eight transfer spots. Once the top 35 gets set after Bristol, the chances of entering or exiting that safe haven decrease each week. That places immense pressure on this week’s race for teams that need to either hang on or move up. Holding the crucial fifth race at the potentially volatile Bristol track makes it even more tense. You can be sure nine or ten teams will be packing extra heartburn medicine this weekend.

Two teams have already locked themselves in for race six at Martinsville. Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers could fail to qualify for Bristol(Busch has a provisional anyway) and still have enough points to stay in the top 35. For other drivers it is less fun. Only 86 points separate 31st through 39th. It sounds like a lot, but making a race guarantees 34 points. If a car currently inside the top 35 like Michael Waltrip misses the race, that opens the door for another outside the top 35.

Right now JJ Yeley sits in the final spot in the top 35 safety zone. He is only 18 points ahead of 36th place Sam Hornish Jr, which is the difference of six places, less with five bonus points for leading a lap. 5 teams that will make the Bristol race due to their 2007 owners points are currently outside the top 35 based on 2008 owners points. The #01, #22, #40, #45, #77 all face the possibility of squandering their early season fortune.

All four rookies currently sit outside the top 35. Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Patrick Carpentier sit in 36th, 38th, 39th and 46th respectively. Smith is the only driver that has previously raced at Bristol and that could provide an advantage. The tight confines of Bristol pose a much different challenge and smaller margin for error than the wider and bigger speedways the tour raced at the last three weeks.

It’s also interesting that the open wheelers are all struggling mightily. Hornish Jr had a top 15 at Daytona but then wrecked in his next two starts. Franchitti hasn’t wrecked, but simply run at the tail of the field every week. Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger haven’t qualified for races and sinking their chances before they even had a chance to crash on Sundays. All of this makes Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut even more impressive. At the same point last year Montoya was safely inside the top 35 and scored a top five at Atlanta.

The rookie struggles means, strange as it sounds, that a driver with zero Cup starts could wind up as Rookie of the Year. The #00 has a nice points cushion thanks to David Reutimann making every race so far. After Martinsville, Reutimann will shift to the #44 (also inside the top 35) and rookie Michael McDowell will take the wheel of the #00. He won’t set the world on fire, but he could be the only rookie with a guaranteed starting spot each week.

Rookies, open-wheelers, and open-wheel rookies aren’t the only teams that will need a second coat of Old Spice this weekend. Michael Waltrip Racing currently has all three cars locked inside the top 35, although the #44 and #55 are toeing the edge of the cliff. After a nightmare 2007 debut, Waltrip has rebounded but there is still one more race for each car to make.

Further up in the points are two drivers from marquee teams. Casey Mears in 30th place and Jamie McMurray in 31st are each one bad Bristol crash from plunging into serious danger. Both are top 20 drivers in top 10 equipment, but can’t seem to garner their deserved finishes. It’s one thing to struggle, but another thing entirely to flirt with the top 35.

On the other end of the spectrum is Kyle Petty. He has made every race, but he sits 40th in the points and needs a lot of help or a spectacular run at Bristol to keep his guaranteed starting spot. His teammate Bobby Labonte has been very competitive each week, but Petty has not finished better than 32nd. His 28.5 driver rating exemplifies the team’s struggles. For Petty Enterprises this year it’s one step forward (#43 car) and one backward.

All in all, the bottom 35 is filled with interesting stories. What happens at Bristol will have consequences for the concerned parties for the rest of the year.

Last Week’s Caption Contest Winner

Thanks to everyone that submitted captions. The winner is John. He wins a $20 gift certificate to use at Whatever Sports.

Kevin Harvick finished 3rd on the money list, won the two richest races of 2007, the Daytona 500 and the Nextel All-Star Race, made the Chase, and had zero DNF’s. And the year was a major disappointmentAfter a major breakthrough in 2006, Harvick took a step backwards in 2007 and became a survivor as opposed to a front runner. Harvick is one of the most talented drivers in the sport and everything is still in place at Richard Childress for a major rebound in 2008

The season began on an incredible high. He won a dramatic Daytona 500 and followed that up by nearly winning the next week at California. He was catching leader Matt Kenseth until he got a flat tire under the final caution. After that, things cooled off. Four of the next five races ended with finishes of 25th or worse. The rest of the year was spent in the NASCAR underground. He would occasionally pop up to lead laps at a race here (Phoenix) and there (Chicago), but rarely was he challenging for wins (Richmond and Indy). In fact, the most attention he got after his All-Star win at Charlotte was for his face-washing/shoving incident with Juan Pablo Montoya at Watkins Glen.

All of his numbers dipped from 2006. His laps led number dropped by 70%, wins went from 5 to 1 and top 5’s from 15 to 4. He also had the worst average finish (15.5) among Chasers. At this point you might think I’m being too hard on Harvick. After all, he did make the Chase (along with his two teammates), he won the biggest race of the season and finished in 10th place overall. And all of that is quite an improvement compared to RCR’s recent past. All of this is true, but the truth is that Harvick is capable of so much more.

Harvick didn’t score as many top tens, but he had 28 top 20’s. That speaks to his ability to avoid trouble and finishing races. Harvick is an interesting test case for a theory I’ve had. Is avoiding DNF’s a skill? It sounds like a ridiculous question. When you see a driver getting caught up in someone else’s wreck the easy thought is tough luck.

However, in seven Cup seasons, Harvick has had zero or one DNF five times. In 250 career Cup races he only has 13 DNF’s total. The same pattern is found in his Busch career. So does that mean Harvick is simply luckier than other drivers? Answering yes to that sounds even more ridiculous than chalking DNF’s up to luck. Obviously there are races where Harvick has problems and just rides around to finish the race, but he is doing something to minimize that kind of situation. He is known for being very committed to sponsors and finishing races could be something Harvick puts greater value in than other drivers. It still doesn’t completely explain how Harvick can consistently run in the top ten and compete for wins but not wreck. It’s an impressive, if not uncommon, trait that helps make Harvick a top driver.

So what will 2008 look like for Happy Harvick? For starters, there is his ability to win on almost any type of track. If it’s flat, Kevin Harvick will find his way to the front. Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond, Indy and Chicago are all places that Harvick excels at. He also has wins at Bristol, Daytona and Watkins Glen proving his versatility.

Maybe the greatest weakness for the #29 team is the high speed intermediate tracks like California, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. Finding a comfortable setup at these tracks will be crucial for crew chief Todd Berrier. RCR did a good job last year of being above average at the CoT tracks. This year the goal has to be improving from above average to excellent, or in other words joining the Hendrick and Gibbs’ neighborhood of excellence.

Harvick’s talent is unquestioned; he can win on almost any type of track, he is incredible at avoiding danger on the track and RCR’s equipment should be even better in 2008. Making the Chase is fine and good, but it’s only the first step for a team like the #29 car. I expect 3 wins, 10 top 5’s, 18 top 10’s and for Harvick to threaten for a Cup title. Harvick has been given all the tools to compete for a championship, and as the proverb says, “to whom much is given, much is expected.”