Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003.

The 2004 Class (Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Scott Riggs, Scott Wimmer, Johnny Sauter, Brendan Gaughan, Carl Edwards)

Kasey Kahne took the Cup world by storm in 2004 when he finished 2nd in two of the first three races, narrowly losing to Matt Kenseth at Rockingham and Las Vegas. While he couldn’t find victory lane as a rookie, he did finish 2nd 5 times. His good looks also didn’t hurt for attracting fans and sponsors. He easily won rookie of the year and almost made the Chase, eventually settling for 13th place in the standings. He finished the season with 13 top 5’s, 14 top 10’s and 4 poles.

Amid raised expectations 2005 was a struggle. He won his first Cup race at Richmond, but had an overall disappointing sophomore season. The big breakthrough finally came in 2006 when he won 6 races, all at intermediate tracks, and made the Chase. While he still has some inconsistency issues, Kahne is one of the top drivers at intermediate tracks and can also excel at short tracks. He has proven his speedway prowess again this year with two more wins so far.

Kahne was the runaway surprise of the 2004 rookie class. That instant success was initially pegged for another driver. Brian Vickers won the 2003 Busch Championship and at the time was expected to easily adjust to the Cup level with Hendrick Motorsports. Of course people forgot that Vickers was only 20. While teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon were fighting for titles, Vickers struggled like almost any 20 year old would. Looking back it should have been expected, especially given the tough circumstances at the end of 2004. The Hendrick team was struck by tragedy which included the loss of Vickers’ close friend Ricky Hendrick. Despite his struggles he still managed 4 top tens and two poles as a rookie.

2005 and 2006 saw improvement and several times looked capable of winning. Vickers did finally win in the fall Talladega race, but at the expense of wrecking his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr, which hardly cultivated fans for Vickers. After the 2006 season he sought a fresh start with the brand new Toyota Red Bull team. Like every Toyota team in 2007, Vickers struggled to make races and finished 38th in points. This year he has elevated his game and is again on the verge of winning races. Maybe it’s because he’s in his fifth Cup season, but it’s easy to forget that he is only 24. While it wasn’t a straight ascent to the top as expected Vickers is finally realizing his potential.

Brendan Gaughan scored what appeared to be a top ride for a rookie when Penske Racing South signed him to drive for the 2004 season. Coming off a six win Truck season in 2003, he appeared ready for the next level. Like most normal rookies, he struggled to finish races and only scored four top tens all season. He was let go after the season to make way for another rookie, Travis Kvapil. Gaughan returned to the Truck Series where he still drives for his family’s team. He made one substitute appearance for Haas-CNC in 2005, wrecked Kyle Petty, and has not resurfaced on the Cup level since. While Gaughan was far from brilliant in his rookie season, Kvapil did not fare any better in the same car the next year. Maybe he would have improved with more time, but it looks like Gaughan’s one chance at the Cup level is all he will get.

It took Scott Riggs a few years to gain traction at the Cup level he improved in each of his first three seasons. After a move from MB/2 Motorsports to Evernham in 2006 Riggs posted 1 top 5, 8 top 10’s and won two poles and finished 20th in the points. Unfortunately Riggs saw everything around him unravel in 2007 as the organization made some major engineering mistakes and Riggs fell outside the top 35. While Riggs is a steady driver and capable of piloting a fast car, he seems destined to be a career journeyman. 2009 will mark his fourth team in six Cup seasons.

Scott Wimmer nearly pulled off one of the biggest shocks of 2004 right off the bat. He gambled on pit strategy at the Daytona 500 and suddenly found himself in the lead with 29 laps to go. He eventually lost the lead but held on for an impressive 3rd place finish. Unfortunately it is Wimmer’s only top 5 to date at the Cup level. After two unremarkable years with Bill Davis Racing and one forgettable year with the struggling Morgan-McClure team Wimmer returned to the Nationwide Series where he runs a part time schedule and tests for RCR. He won the Nationwide race at Nashville earlier this year. His connection with RCR will likely continue to land him occasional Cup starts.

Based on his solid results in the lower ranks and the Busch Series, Johnny Sauter was given a chance on the Cup side with Richard Childress Racing. He began the season in the #30 AOL car and like every other rookie excluding Kahne, Sauter struggled. After failing to score a top ten in his first 13 races he was released in favor of veteran Dave Blaney. He has since landed rides with Phoenix Racing and Haas Racing with limited success. Sauter has three career top tens at the Cup level including a best of 5th.

Ironically, Sauter’s early exit eventually led to RCR hiring Jeff Burton to drive the car in midseason. Burton’s exit from Roush paved the way for a young driver to take NASCAR by surprise. Carl Edwards jumped into the #99 car at the August Michigan race and scored a top ten. While the rest of the season was not as smooth, he did have 5top tens in only 13 races.

Originally pegged to one day replace Mark Martin, Edwards had carved out his own identity with the #99 car. He won his first Cup race in style, passing Jimmie Johnson on the final turn at Atlanta. He then pulled off his signature backflip for the first time in a Cup race. He won four races and made the Chase field. With a late surge he nearly won the Chase but finished tied for second with teammate Greg Biffle.

Edwards struggled to repeat his charmed 2005 and went winless in 2006 and missed the Chase. He rebounded in 2007 with three wins and a spot in the Chase. He also has three wins through 19 races in 2008 and is in good shape to make his third Chase in four full seasons.

Verdict: The 2004 class had seven drivers which increases the odds that at least one driver will succeed, but three out of seven drivers are Cup winners and top 20 drivers. The rest makeup the underappreciated NASCAR workforce. The class gets a big boost from Edwards’ inclusion. Edwards and Kahne are bona fide stars at the Cup level, while Vickers is a very solid driver that is still improving. Scott Riggs and Johnny Sauter are both capable drivers that probably will remain Cup journeymen with the occasional highlights. Scott Wimmer has found success with RCR’s Nationwide team and will probably get another chance at the Cup level. Gaughan will likely remain a footnote for the rookie class.

It’s Indy time for the Cup guys. That means speeds over 200 mph, a huge purse (last year was over $8 million) and tight racing. With not a lot of room to pass in the corners, horsepower on the straightaways is a driver’s best friend. Dale Earnhardt Jr participated in the recent Goodyear tire test and he also quelled concern about tires.

Tire wear was a big issue. When we first started out, you recall last year and in years past, when we first get there, we go to the cords in about five laps. It takes the whole weekend to build the rubber up on the track before that goes away. We did that again, and we found a tire that will work with another tire that lasted quite a bit longer and ran just as quick.

Because Indianapolis is such a large track, tires can wear out quickly. It’s compounded by the fact that the Trucks and Nationwide cars don’t see the track. That also minimizes the amount of rubber buildup. The fact that Earnhardt is happy with the durability and quality of the tire is a good thing for the level of racing and safety.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr dominated the early stages of the race but blew an engine. It was one of three engine failures in the final seven races before the Chase, completely souring his chances to make the Chase or win a race. Tony Stewart took advantage and went on to cruise to an easy win. The win also produced two of the more memorable quotes from Stewart. While closing in on Kevin Harvick, Stewart casually uttered “Here kitty kitty” over the team radio. Then after his win he swore in Victory Lane on live TV. In a post Janet Jackson-FCC crackdown society, Stewart was fined. It didn’t help that it was ESPN’s first broadcast of their new television deal.

Notes

• In the short history at the Brickyard Jeff Gordon owns almost all of the records. 4 wins, 11 top 10’s, 433 laps led, and three poles are all tops.

• In 9 Indy starts Dave Blaney has never led a lap. Every driver with more than 4 starts has led at least one lap.

• Chevy has won the last five races and nine of 14 overall at Indianapolis. Dodge and Pontiac have one win each while Ford has three, although none since 1999. Toyota is tied with Oldsmobile and Scion at zero.

• James at One Bad Wheel has an interesting article on the history of victory lane celebrations. Todd Parrott is credited with starting the brick kissing tradition in 1996. It’s interesting to see how different traditions start and what makes one action stick while others are considered lame? Kissing bricks, climbing fences and drinking milk. They all make perfect sense. In a way it’s like nicknaming yourself. You can’t try too hard and make it intentional or it looks desperate. His article also reminded me of the time in 2005 when Kurt Busch won the fall Richmond race and kissed the asphalt. No one has done it since, thankfully.

• Bill Elliott will attempt to make his 15th Brickyard race. While he is no longer a threat to win races, Elliott can still get it done at select tracks. He has never finished worse than 23rd at Indy and has 5 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s in his career. That includes his 2002 win where he led 93 laps.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is becoming a serious threat on intermediate tracks. Last year he relied on attrition to score a decent finish. This year he is running in the top 10 and top 15 for the bulk of races.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Chump: Carl Edwards Sure Edwards can win at any track, but so far in his career Indy hasn’t agreed with him. A ninth place finish in 2006 is sandwiched by two mediocre finishes (12th, 18th) with bad driver ratings (69.6 and 67.1).

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin stayed in the top 5 almost all day at Pocono and has already said he can win at Indy. He is not one to exaggerate.

Who Will Get to 1st Base with the Bricks?

Tony Stewart will surely be a popular choice along with his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Kasey Kahne has been very good on speedways this summer and Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr could also show up in strength. Kevin Harvick is also one to watch (no matter what loser bloggers might say about his season, he comes good at Indy). Maybe I’m bored of picking the same four or five drivers each week, but I’m going deeper for my pick this week. Over the last two months
Brian Vickers has quietly ran with the leaders on a weekly basis. His driver rating over the last 8 races is a very neat 92.2. He was the fastest car at Michigan and one of the fastest at Lowe’s, Dover and Pocono. He is ready to win and it will be surprising if he doesn’t have a win by the time the Chase rolls around. Win number one for Red Bull Racing might come this weekend.

Someone is about to go for a parachute ride. Based on recent history, it’s inevitable that one and maybe two teams sitting on the good side of the points will tumble between now and September. Since the Chase was created in 2004, at least one driver each season has lost altitude and fallen from a Chase position. With only seven races before the Dirty Dozen are chosen for NASCAR’s playoffs, the pack is tight for the final few spots. In recent years drivers like Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick, Dale Jarrett, Elliott Sadler, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Greg Biffle have all seen the bottom fall out. A season filled with the hope of a late season run at a championship suddenly squashed by late season problems.

Of course, for every driver that experiences a late summer slide there is another driver ready to swoop for their Chase spot. Just ask Jeremy Mayfield, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin or Kurt Busch how that feels. One of the keys to making the Chase was winning. Four of these six drivers were propelled to the Chase on the strength of a win. Mayfield’s was the most dramatic. He won the Richmond race to crack the Chase field on the final night. While all wins aren’t as dramatic as Mayfield’s, they all count equally.

This year will again feature some nail biting for some teams as the races count down. 199 points separate 6th place Jeff Gordon from 15th place David Ragan. Ragan is also only 98 points from 12th place Denny Hamlin. A lot can, and will, happen in the next seven races.

Aside from obviously winning a race or scoring six or seven top tens, the biggest key is to avoid awful finishes. Last year Dale Earnhardt Jr had three top fives in the seven races prior to the Chase. Unfortunately he also had three engine failures that resulted in three 30+ finishes. It also didn’t help that his nearest competitor Kurt Busch won two races in the same span.

While some things like engine failures are out of a driver’s control, driver’s still must do everything they can in these seven races to minimize bad finishes. Allowing a rival to pass is worth losing 3-5 points instead of wrecking and losing 50 or more. Maximizing finishes is especially true when looking at the schedule, which is pretty diverse over the next month and a half. Two things that a driver and team must have are a good speedway car and patience. Speedways like Indianapolis, Pocono, Michigan and California are alternated with tricky short tracks like Bristol and Richmond plus the Watkins Glen road course. If a driver doesn’t fare well on road courses or a short track, they must avoid overdriving and making a costly mistake. If their car isn’t handling well, then they have to start considering gambling on pit strategy or fuel mileage.

At this point it’s hard to imagine a team discovering a new trick or making a large advancement that will help over the next seven weeks. For the most part what you’ve seen so far this year is what you can expect from the teams and drivers. With that in mind here’s one way to try and predict who will sneak in to the ball and who will turn into a pumpkin after Richmond. I’m using driver rating to predict future performance. I realize it’s not perfect, but it’s a decent way of telling who is over- and underperforming in relation to their point standings this year.

Of the nine drivers in the gray area (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are safe), drivers with the best driver ratings are Jeff Gordon (5th overall, 95.2), Tony Stewart (6th, 94.9), Denny Hamlin (7th, 93.1), Greg Biffle (8th, 89.7), Kevin Harvick (10th, 88.1) and Matt Kenseth (87.3, 11th). Based on their driver ratings compared (which I mentioned earlier in the season) to their point standing Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin are also driving better than they have actually finished. While this doesn’t always translate into improved finishes, it’s a lot easier to take a fast car and finish well than to take a slower car and hope you can outlast enough people for a strong finish. For Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin it’s also a good sign that they have teammates that are running really well every week. That also tells me that they are capable of not only finishing well, but could win a race. Matt Kenseth, despite a miserable start to his season, also falls in the category of a driver capable of winning a race, based on his last nine starts (eight top tens).

Meanwhile drivers like Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick have finished decently but their driver ratings aren’t as stellar. Despite a 3rd place finish last weekend at Chicago, Kevin Harvick has been very anonymous this year. Because Pocono, Michigan and California are unreliable for Harvick, he can’t afford bad finishes at the tracks where he is usually strong at like Indianapolis, Bristol and Richmond. The same goes for Bowyer who despite his win at Richmond has been more of a compiler than a front runner this year.

A little further back is Brian Vickers. He is the one person that is a wild card. He has been incredibly good on speedways and has a realistic chance to win at Indy, Pocono or Michigan. Unfortunately with Red Bull Racing still new to NASCAR, mistakes and letdowns are always lurking on the #83 team. The other issue is Vickers record at Bristol, Watkins Glen and Richmond. He has a combined 2 top tens in 20 starts at the three tracks. If he can mitigate the damage at these tracks with top 15’s or better, he has the speed on the downforce tracks to put a scare into the RCR cars for a spot in the Chase.

So you tell me, who will make it? Who will get tossed to the side? Who will have heartburn for the next seven weeks?

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Have you ever had a friend that no matter what they do can’t seem to get out of their own way? Maybe they get a raise at work, but then blow it on a new TV they can’t afford? You can’t help but slap your forehead and cover your eyes. In NASCAR that friend is Dodge. For every triumph, there seems to be self-inflicted Dodge has won three of the last six Cup races. When you throw in Kasey Kahne’s All-Star win, that’s 4 in the last seven, which is more than the manufacturer won in all of 2007. On paper, things look pretty good for Dodge and its teams. Of course reality tells a different story, and to anyone that has followed NASCAR in recent years knows how self-sabotaging the Dodge teams can be. Even during high spots, there are more problems than positives.

The big news this week is that Chip Ganassi is putting the #40 car up on cinder blocks for the rest of 2008, meaning Dario Franchitti’s Cup career will also see weeds and grass sprout around it while it sits in the backyard at Ganassi’s shop. The lack of sponsorship was the final blow for the car. While Franchitti entered NASCAR with great credentials like an Indy 500 win and an IRL championship (not to mention the Judd marketing factor), it’s pretty easy to see why companies passed on Ganassi. Their NASCAR teams stink. One Cup win since 2002, no driver has ever made the Chase and since 2005 no driver has scored more than 10 top 10’s in a season. In the middle of 2005 Ganassi announced tentative plans to expand to four cars. It never happened because Jamie McMurray successfully voided his contract and moved to Roush-Fenway, but at the time Ganassi did have enough sponsorship for all four teams. Of course that was before the mortgage crisis (remember Home 1-2-3?) and the overall economic slowdown. It’s a little surprising Franchitti was willing to come to NASCAR despite the lack of funding.

In 2006 Kasey Kahne won a series high 6 races and made the Chase for Evernham Motorsports. At the same time teammate Jeremy Mayfield struggled to stay inside the top 35, was ultimately fired in midseason and threatened legal action. The ugliness only intensified with the inappropriate relationship between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker. That ultimately played a part in the team’s abysmal 2007 season where the team realized halfway through that their season was wasted due using incorrect data to build their cars. Things are just now returning to normal, almost a year and a half later.

How about Penske Racing? In the summer of 2005 they signed one of the biggest free agents, Kurt Busch, to replace the retiring Rusty Wallace. It was the perfect driver to build upon a successful 2005 season that saw two of the three Penske cars make the Chase. Instead Penske chopped the #77 team (not due to sponsorship) and contracted back to two teams. To make things worse, the Penske teams spent the majority of the offseason and the spring trying to run the older Intrepid instead of the current Charger model. The result was-you guessed it-a wasted season. After two seasons of two cars the #77 finally returned to the track this year, but is again struggling as a new team. Had it been running continuously, the team might be a lot further along and more competitive with the other top teams at Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford.

All of the teams at Dodge (don’t forget Petty Enterprises, who is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant) have struggled in the last five years. It’s fitting given the unstable nature of Dodge. Daimler sold the company in 2007 and they are still struggling to compete. Things could only get worse for Dodge on the competition side. With factory support an unknown quantity, there is no real hope for drastic improvement on the track. And based on some of the rumors, top drivers like Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya could have other opportunities with different teams next year as well. While the wins might increase with Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch, the overall picture in the Dodge camp is pretty gloomy.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

During Sunday’s race I had to paint a room in our house while listening to MRN and occasionally stealing time in front of the TV. With that context I can certifiably state that the Pocono race was more exciting than watching paint dry. Actually it was a lot more exciting. Whether it was the CoT, the new patch in turn 3, the hot and sticky weather, a great tire package from Goodyear or a combination, the racing was pretty good. Cars could make their way through traffic, but the leader didn’t necessarily check out in clean air.

Kasey Kahne was strong again winning his second Cup points race in three weeks and third Cup race (the All-Star exhibition race) in four. Kahne was obviously the best car on the track, but once again he got a little bit of help via other cars’ misfortune. Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart both suffered pit road speeding penalties on the final pit stop, ruining top five runs. Carl Edwards, who was content to lurk during the first 150 laps, got a flat tire on the final pit stop and watched his chance at the win vanish. Even the way Brian Vickers was able to hold off the faster Denny Hamlin in the final segment allowed Kahne to pull away without any serious challenges. Kahne had the best car and deserved to win, but it’s interesting all the different cars that could have challenged him but instead fell short for a variety of reasons.

• In the Top 35 Derby, Michael Waltrip fell outside the bubble giving way to Scott Riggs. Riggs had a very solid day, starting 9th then leading six laps on his way to a 21st place showing. It’s only one race, but that will make the #66 team’s week much easier not having to worry about qualifying for the next race without crew chief Bootie Barker. The Top 35 remains a tight scrum. Regan Smith is in 31st place but only leads 36th place Waltrip by 56 points. With Somoma and Daytona pending, the next month could really shuffle the top 35 battle.

• After Juan Pablo Montoya was collected by a wrecking Clint Bowyer, he was more concerned with how he was running prior to the crash. He only spent 17 laps in the top 15 and was clearly unhappy with Team Ganassi’s performance. When you see Montoya outperform his teammates and most other Dodge cars on a weekly basis, it’s pretty obvious Montoya is holding up his end of the bargain. It’s also clear that Ganassi, and to a smaller degree Dodge, is not providing strong enough equipment for Montoya.

• Red Bull Racing had their best race so far in their short NASCAR career. Brian Vickers led 18 laps and held off Denny Hamlin for second place. Teammate AJ Allmendinger qualified 8th, spent three fourths of the race inside the top 15 and came home 12th. It was Allmendinger’s best Cup finish and his 95.2 was by far his highest driver rating. Obviously the large horsepower from Toyota helps, but it takes more than a strong engine to threaten for wins and top tens. Allmendinger still endures his share of struggles, but he is also showing signs that he is getting comfortable in a stock car. Vickers explained the difference from last year:
  

  in this sport, it’s all about people. Jay Frye (general manager, Red Bull Racing Team) coming on board has been great leadership from the top. It always starts from the top down, but there’s been a lot of other people. Jay has been a large part of it, but I don’t want to give him all the credit. There’s a lot of people that have come on board and a lot of great people that are still there from last year

  Some people thought Vickers made a mistake to leave Hendrick two years ago, but that bold decision now looks like the right one. He is getting strong cars and is also proving his driving talent away from the spotlight of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Vickers is a legitimate threat to win a race this year and could even compete for a spot in the Chase in 2009.

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For the second straight year Tony Stewart led the Coca Cola 600 late. Last year he was beat when several drivers gambled on fuel. This year Stewart aced the pit stop, came out first and looked like he was on his way to winning his first Coca Cola 600. Then with two laps left he cut a tire, once again sullying his run. Stewart’s disappointment became Kasey Kahne’s elation. As predicted, Kahne ran well at Lowe’s. His driver rating was a race best 131.8 and he led 66 laps. He was also a little fortunate that other top cars like Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson all had problems. This week as countless blogs and media websites talk about how Kahne is a championship contender, keep in mind that this is based off of Kahne’s performance at one track. He has been average at every other track in 2008. Five laps led and no top 5’s prior to Charlotte does not prove that Kahne is ready for a breakout summer.

• I have resisted declaring a problem with Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth as long as I could, but they now officially have problems with their intermediate programs. Neither could find the top ten until they each outlasted enough cars with some help from fuel mileage. Lost in his ability to finish well is the fact that Kevin Harvick is not running well either, and hasn’t at intermediate tracks in two years. each of the three is good enough at other tracks to still make the Chase, but winning races will be tougher to come by. The good news is that the summer does not feature a glut of intermediate tracks. The bad news is that the Chase does.

• David Reutimann scored his first Cup top ten and ran inside the top for almost two thirds of the race.
  

  “It was a good effort for everybody at Michael Waltrip Racing and Toyota did a great job — UPS for sticking with us through this whole program and we haven’t really done much to deliver any good finishes. I think this is maybe a start for things to come and I appreciate them sticking with me and everybody at the shop. I managed to run the top side of the race track all night without knocking the right side off, so that’s a good start. I enjoyed it — the guys did a great job and the pit stops were good. All in all our team’s coming together and I can’t wait until the next race.”

  Sam Hornish Jr also posted a career high of 12th.

• While seemingly every top car experienced some kind of setback, Jeff Burton spent 398 of 400 laps in the top 15, only falling out for green flag pit stops. It’s becoming Burton’s trademark, running well without incident and getting everything out of the car without pushing it too far.

• Have you noticed that most of the NASCAR themed commercials are shot at Phoenix Raceway? Why is that?

• A nice touch by Fox to make suggested pit adjustments throughout the night. It’s something that appeals to more advanced fans. The NASCAR 101 stuff is great, but for the fans that watch every race, it’s about time that the broadcast gives something to them too.

• It was amazing that BrianVickers’ stray tire avoided more trouble. Even after smashing into David Gilliland’s hood, the tire still had enough speed to roll several hundred yards and bounced over a fence and into a camper. That is a 25 pound tire that broke loose from a car going 170 mph and it dropped onto a canvas tent. Nothing was really mentioned about this, but that could have been scary.

• With Memorial Day on Monday, I also want to thank all of the people that allow me to watch and write about NASCAR from the comfort of my couch with nary a thought about my life being in danger. This comfort and freedom that we all enjoy is due to our armed forces, past and present. Thank you.

For more racing news and opinion, check out Racing Nation.

Nigel Tufnel: You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You’re on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you’re on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?
Marty DiBergi: I don’t know.
Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?
Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.
Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.

-“This is Spinal Tap”

I imagine that’s the way Humpy Wheeler might have described the Coca Cola 600 compared to other 500 mile events. He’s retiring after this weekend from his position as President and GM of Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Monte Dutton does a great job summarizing his impact.

Should we have been surprised by Kasey Kahne’s success at Lowe’s? So far this season Kahne has been solid but not quite a front runner and he supported that with a fifth place run in the All-Star undercard race. What we should have realized is that in his short career Kahne has been exceptional at Lowe’s. In 2004 he was one of the few cars capable of running down Jimmie Johnson in the Coke 600 before he brushed the wall on the final run, finishing 12th. Then in the fall race he was the dominant car, leading 207 of the first 267 laps, and in one of the coolest paint schemes in recent years. Unfortunately a cut tire sent him hard into the wall, spoiling a chance at his first career Cup win.

In 2005 Kahne led both races but again failed to garner good finishes. Then his big breakthrough came in 2006 when he swept both races in impressive fashion. He led 158 and 134 laps respectively in winning two of his six races that year. Last year was an unmitigated struggle for Kahne and Evernham but he still managed an eighth place finish in the fall race. It’s pretty clear that Kahne is very good at Charlotte regardless of how the rest of his season goes.

What Happened Last year

Jimmie Johnson was arguably the best car on the track. Jeff Gordon was involved in a wreck that sent him airborne. Tony Stewart was leading the race near the end when it became apparent that teams would not make it to the end on fuel. With most of the leaders pitting, Casey Mears stayed on track, had enough fuel to finish and claimed his first Cup win.

Other Notes

• Jimmie Johnson hasn’t won at Lowe’s in four races, but he’s still the top driver there. 5 wins plus two other wins in the exhibition All-Star race. His average finish is 6.8 and he has 8 top fives in 13 races. That’s pretty good, I guess.

• Racingone has a cool writeup on the history of the World/Coke 600. Especially interesting was the story of David Pearson’s win at Charlotte. He was working as a roofer when he got the call to subsitute for another driver. He went on to win the race.
  

  With a little over one lap to go, Pearson’s Pontiac blew a tire. He knew a pit stop would dash his hopes for a victory, so he pressed on. Pearson limped across the finish line in a shower of sparks for his first of 105 wins in NASCAR’s premier series.

• Has Bill Cosby ever been grand marshal of the Coke (and a smile) 600? He should be. What about Darryl Strawberry or Doc Gooden? They probably shouldn’t be.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

• Champs It makes a lot of sense to pick Kahne this week. Didn’t you read the previous notes?

• Chumps Kevin Harvick hasn’t scored a top ten at Lowe’s since 2003. He will obviously be running at the end because he never gets DNF’s, but where will he be running is the key? My guess is not on the lead lap.

• Sleepers Jamie McMurray has a win, 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s. He stands above the crowd in this group.

Who Will Win?

A lot can happen in 600 miles, almost anything can happen. That extra 100 miles can wreak havoc with the best laid plans. Which makes sense considering the team with the most success, the #48 team, is probably the best at adjusting on the fly. Johnson would be a good bet to run in the top five, but I’m going to take a slight risk and pick Greg Biffle for his first win of 2008.

Self Promotion

As the old adage says, be wary of Canadians promising things. It’s not a real proverb, but I was tricked by one this week. Bob at 4Ever3 conned me into answering my own questions about Blogging. So if you’ve made it this far in the post and still have have a fever for more cowbell info on me, head over to his site .You should probably make it a habit to check out his site regularly anyway.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media

Kasey Kahne won the All-Star race thanks in part to the fans. He finished 5th in the Sprint Showdown, but made the feature event from the fans voting him. I’m sure some people will say he didn’t deserve to make the race, but so what? Involving the fans in an exhibition race is the whole point. All-Star games in every sport see players that don’t deserve to make it, but wind up in the starting lineup every year. Give Kahne credit for parlaying his spot into a giant check (the more I think about it, the more I want to win a physicaly giant check. Even if it’s for $5, I want a big check.).

Kahne’s win also highlights how the track changes from day to night. He didn’t run particularly well in the qualifying heat but was far better when the track was cooler. It’s hard to cull a lot of information from this weekend and apply it to the Coca Cola 600, but that is one point to remember. In a 400 lap race we will see cars struggle in the first 100-200 laps but then look a lot better in the second half of the race.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr made an interesting observation about that relating to the 600.

I’ll tell you one thing I was surprised about was how much my car changed from the start of the run to the end of the run in 25 laps. I would go from real tight to real, real loose and we’re going to have to run 60 laps in the 600 on gas and you will be hanging on for dear life. It should be a real tough, tough 600. Probably tougher than any other one any of us has ever ran.

Long green flag runs at intermediate tracks haven’t been kind to the CoT. Hopefully the Lowe’s test will help, but as Junior noted things could get dull this weekend.

• If Joe Gibbs Racing is going to have a race where they lose three engines during the weekend, it may as well be an exhibition race. Of course if you’re going to pick a weekend to experiment with engines, well this is the weekend for that too. According to Denny Hamlin, that’s exactly what they did.
  

  “This is definitely experimental ‘All-Star only’ racing. We came out here with our guns loaded and unfortunately our gun went off a little bit before the end of the race. It just wasn’t enough. We knew this engine wasn’t going to go 500 miles. It was built for just a few more laps past 100 and it just didn’t make it.”

• Thumbs up for AJ Allmendinger for winning the undercard race, the Spring Showdown. After really struggling to get his NASCAR career on track, he finally had a positive breakthrough.

  I feel like I won the Daytona 500. Nobody understands how much this means to me after what we went through as a team. It may be just an All-Star Showdown, but this means the world to me. These guys — everybody at Red Bull Racing Team and Toyota — they’ve stuck behind me.

  After Red Bull replaced Allmendinger with Mike Skinner for five races, it was reasonable to believe that Allmendinger may not get another chance in the #84. Obviously 40 good laps won’t mean much in a points paying race, but it is proof that he’s capable of running much better than he’s shown so far. He did score his career best finish last fall at Lowe’s (15th). The fact that he also accepted 100% of the blame for bumping Elliott Sadler into the wall also shows he’s learning the political side of NASCAR too.

• I’m all for new and creative ideas, but I don’t think the burnout contest is one of them. Maybe I’m in the minority, but there’s not much variety in burnouts. Obviously it’s different being at the race and watching, but for a televised event it’s pretty lame.

  It’s kind of like where the NBA dunk contest is now. All the good, creative dunks have already been done, so everything is pretty vanilla.

For more racing news, check out Racing Nation

Races at Richmond are awesome. They’re short (in both time and track size), at night, feature competitive action and often offer up good theater in the way of feuds. Need more reasons?

What happened last year

It rained. As a result the race was moved from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon and Jimmie Johnson exercised his Richmond demons to win the first of his season sweep at the track. Hendrick cars took three of the top four spots in the spring race. Of course the bigger news that week was Dale Earnhardt Jr putting in his seven month notice that he was leaving DEI. That set off an onslaught of speculation about where the high-profile driver would wind up after the season. Sound familiar?

Quick Notes

• Tony Stewart has 12 top 10 finishes in 18 career Richmond starts. He also has three wins, although none since 2002.

• Until last year Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon both struggled at Richmond. Then Johnson won both races and Gordon scored two fourths. Gordon had not finished better than 31st in his previous four tries and Johnson had only one other finish (2nd in 2004) inside the top 10.

• Casey Mears is the only current Cup driver with more than four starts without a top ten at Richmond. Mears has ten starts with a best finish of eleventh in 2006.

• The first Richmond race was held in 1953 won by Lee Petty. 27 cars started the 200 lap event. The race was run on dirt until 1968.

• Richard Petty has the most victories with 13. AJ Allmendinger is tied for fewest with zero.

• Tim Richmond won the 1986 race at Richmond. (Note: I failed to mention last week that no driver named Talladega has ever won a race at that track.)

• Carl Edwards gets his crew chief Bob Osborne back this week after a six race suspension. Edwards was fast at Phoenix before a pit road problem. He was also fast at last fall’s Richmond race before he blew the engine.

Four to watch

• Kyle Busch He has five top fives in six Cup starts at Richmond. He had the dominant car in the fall 2006 race before Kevin Harvick pipped him with two laps left.

• Denny Hamlin: It could be a wheelbarrow race in Blacksburg, but as long as it featured Denny Hamlin in the state of Virginia, he’d be a threat to win.

• Kevin Harvick: Just like Hamlin takes to any race in the Old Dominion state Harvick thrives on the flat tracks. It could be a speedskating race in Vermont…you get the picture. Owns the best driver rating over the last six races at 121.2 and owns one win.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr Apparently Junior hasn’t won a Cup race in a while. He has won the last three spring races falling in even years. That stat means nothing in regards to Saturday night. His 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s does, though.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

A weekly glimpse at my picks from the Fantasy NASCAR game. If you haven’t signed up yet, a new segment is starting soon (like four races soon) which means you have a clean slate.

• Champ: Kurt Busch Busch won the 2005 fall race and also owns the fifth best driver rating (100.4) over the last six races.

• Chump: Clint Boywer So far this year Bowyer has been a compiler instead of a front runner. He can’t keep that up forever without experiencing some bad luck.

• Sleeper: Elliott Sadler No one really strikes me as a great choice among the sleepers this week. Sadler has the skill, experience, and just maybe the car (ran very well at Phoenix) to land in the top 15. Be sure and check out all of the Sleeper Analysis at One Bad Wheel

Who Will Win?

So far this season Kasey Kahne has been solid nearly every week. Richmond is the site of his first win and even in his worst years, he has run well at Richmond. It’s something about Richmond and drivers with open-wheel backgrounds like Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.