Trouble in Turn2

Someone is about to go for a parachute ride. Based on recent history, it’s inevitable that one and maybe two teams sitting on the good side of the points will tumble between now and September. Since the Chase was created in 2004, at least one driver each season has lost altitude and fallen from a Chase position. With only seven races before the Dirty Dozen are chosen for NASCAR’s playoffs, the pack is tight for the final few spots. In recent years drivers like Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick, Dale Jarrett, Elliott Sadler, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Greg Biffle have all seen the bottom fall out. A season filled with the hope of a late season run at a championship suddenly squashed by late season problems.

Of course, for every driver that experiences a late summer slide there is another driver ready to swoop for their Chase spot. Just ask Jeremy Mayfield, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin or Kurt Busch how that feels. One of the keys to making the Chase was winning. Four of these six drivers were propelled to the Chase on the strength of a win. Mayfield’s was the most dramatic. He won the Richmond race to crack the Chase field on the final night. While all wins aren’t as dramatic as Mayfield’s, they all count equally.

This year will again feature some nail biting for some teams as the races count down. 199 points separate 6th place Jeff Gordon from 15th place David Ragan. Ragan is also only 98 points from 12th place Denny Hamlin. A lot can, and will, happen in the next seven races.

Aside from obviously winning a race or scoring six or seven top tens, the biggest key is to avoid awful finishes. Last year Dale Earnhardt Jr had three top fives in the seven races prior to the Chase. Unfortunately he also had three engine failures that resulted in three 30+ finishes. It also didn’t help that his nearest competitor Kurt Busch won two races in the same span.

While some things like engine failures are out of a driver’s control, driver’s still must do everything they can in these seven races to minimize bad finishes. Allowing a rival to pass is worth losing 3-5 points instead of wrecking and losing 50 or more. Maximizing finishes is especially true when looking at the schedule, which is pretty diverse over the next month and a half. Two things that a driver and team must have are a good speedway car and patience. Speedways like Indianapolis, Pocono, Michigan and California are alternated with tricky short tracks like Bristol and Richmond plus the Watkins Glen road course. If a driver doesn’t fare well on road courses or a short track, they must avoid overdriving and making a costly mistake. If their car isn’t handling well, then they have to start considering gambling on pit strategy or fuel mileage.

At this point it’s hard to imagine a team discovering a new trick or making a large advancement that will help over the next seven weeks. For the most part what you’ve seen so far this year is what you can expect from the teams and drivers. With that in mind here’s one way to try and predict who will sneak in to the ball and who will turn into a pumpkin after Richmond. I’m using driver rating to predict future performance. I realize it’s not perfect, but it’s a decent way of telling who is over- and underperforming in relation to their point standings this year.

Of the nine drivers in the gray area (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are safe), drivers with the best driver ratings are Jeff Gordon (5th overall, 95.2), Tony Stewart (6th, 94.9), Denny Hamlin (7th, 93.1), Greg Biffle (8th, 89.7), Kevin Harvick (10th, 88.1) and Matt Kenseth (87.3, 11th). Based on their driver ratings compared (which I mentioned earlier in the season) to their point standing Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin are also driving better than they have actually finished. While this doesn’t always translate into improved finishes, it’s a lot easier to take a fast car and finish well than to take a slower car and hope you can outlast enough people for a strong finish. For Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin it’s also a good sign that they have teammates that are running really well every week. That also tells me that they are capable of not only finishing well, but could win a race. Matt Kenseth, despite a miserable start to his season, also falls in the category of a driver capable of winning a race, based on his last nine starts (eight top tens).

Meanwhile drivers like Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick have finished decently but their driver ratings aren’t as stellar. Despite a 3rd place finish last weekend at Chicago, Kevin Harvick has been very anonymous this year. Because Pocono, Michigan and California are unreliable for Harvick, he can’t afford bad finishes at the tracks where he is usually strong at like Indianapolis, Bristol and Richmond. The same goes for Bowyer who despite his win at Richmond has been more of a compiler than a front runner this year.

A little further back is Brian Vickers. He is the one person that is a wild card. He has been incredibly good on speedways and has a realistic chance to win at Indy, Pocono or Michigan. Unfortunately with Red Bull Racing still new to NASCAR, mistakes and letdowns are always lurking on the #83 team. The other issue is Vickers record at Bristol, Watkins Glen and Richmond. He has a combined 2 top tens in 20 starts at the three tracks. If he can mitigate the damage at these tracks with top 15’s or better, he has the speed on the downforce tracks to put a scare into the RCR cars for a spot in the Chase.

So you tell me, who will make it? Who will get tossed to the side? Who will have heartburn for the next seven weeks?

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In the last four races dating back to Sonoma we have seen Kyle Busch in a nutshell. He has won three races at three completely different tracks and also thrown in a nice scuffle at Loudon for good measure. Since his crash at Pocono (and the accompanying nonsense about his lack of focus) he has seen his lead grow from 21 points to 262. If the Chase started today he would have a 50 point lead over Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

After Kyle Busch’s first win of the season at Atlanta, I compared his fourth Cup season (at age 23) to that of Jeff Gordon’s 1995 season. In that season, Gordon’s 3rd in Cup (age 23), he won 7 races, had 17 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s, and won his first of four championships. At the time it seemed like a fair comparison. Through three years, Busch’s numbers were very similar to Gordon’s at the same age. Of course, thanks to Busch’s last four races, he is on a completely different plane. Busch is beginning to look like the Jeff Gordon of 1996-1998 when he won 10, 10 and 13 races respectively.

It’s undeniable that Busch is having a great season, but let’s hold off with the “Legendary” labels for now. The 2007 New England Patriots could speak intelligently on the subject. While some fans still feel the Chase is contrived, it’s one more challenge that Busch and any other driver has conquer. Of course Busch is doing everything he can in the regular season to gain the NASCAR equivalent of home field advantage throughout the playoffs by racing up as many bonus points as possible. Even if his 50 point lead holds up or grows, he will still face serious competition during the final ten races. Remember, 50 points is the difference between 1st and 8th place. Carl Edwards is stout on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks that litter the Chase schedule. Dale Earnhardt has run in the top 5 for the entire season and Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into to form (he will win at least one to two more races before the Chase starts). Even teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have the tools to challenge Busch for the title during the final stretch. Go ahead and pile the compliments on Kyle Busch’s plate right now, he’s had a dream season to this point. But be careful to assume that Busch will win continue winning races at this pace or that the Chase is only a formality.

• Last week I questioned the need for more night races, but Chicago was a good show. It was a lot tougher to pass at Chicago than some of the similar tracks earlier this year and drivers really had to work for several laps to set up passes. Whether that is from the cooler night temperatures, Goodyear’s improved tires, the quality of the Chicago or a combination of factors, it was a good race to watch. The incredible sunset was a nice touch too.

• Speaking of tough to pass, is there a driver that is tougher to pass than Matt Kenseth? He is so adept at finding the line where another driver wants to be and making it really difficult for other drivers. It’s nothing illegal or cheap but it’s his signature move. Other drivers try it, but no one is able to hold on for so many laps with an inferior car to the one attempting to pass.

• TNT took a commercial break while the race was under green with 17 laps left. In a race that featured a lot of tight racing and had just featured a late pass for the lead, TNT should have stayed with the final 20 laps until either the finish or a caution flag. I realize how difficult it is to time commercials and balance the coverage with paying bills, but it seemed like a poor decision. What happens if Johnson cuts a tire, or Kyle Busch wrecks trying to run Johnson down? It created a situation where a race-altering move could have been missed in the final laps of the race.

• Kevin Harvick scored his first top 5 since Richmond nine races ago. The 3rd place finish allowed him to jump 4 spots in the standings to 9th. Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer’s tailspin continued. After his win at Richmond, Bowyer sat in 4th place in the points and had scored 7 straight top tens. He now sits in 13th and only has two top tens in the last nine. The reason for Bowyer’s slide? In the first quarter of the season he ran in the top ten and top 15 avoided trouble to maximize his finishes. Now Bowyer is still running in the top 15 but has not been able to improve his position. His driver rating (79.7) is 17th best. If Bowyer hopes to make the Chase, that number will have to improve.

• Barring major catastrophe the top 5 drivers are pretty well locked into the Chase. Starting with Jeff Gordon in 6th place and back to 15th place David Ragan, there is only a 200 point gap. A lot could happen between now and Richmond to shuffle the bottom half of the Chase field.

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The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

Now that Dale Earnhardt Jr has scored his breakthrough win for 2008, who is the next driver to win for the first time this year? Nine different drivers have already won at least one race this year, but there are still a lot of big names looking to kick in the door to Victory Lane. Here’s a list of candidates in order of likeliness.

Aside from crazy circumstances, a team finding something revolutionary, or a road course ringer, I can’t see any other drivers challenging for wins this year. Anyone else you see winning this year?

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

For the second straight year Tony Stewart led the Coca Cola 600 late. Last year he was beat when several drivers gambled on fuel. This year Stewart aced the pit stop, came out first and looked like he was on his way to winning his first Coca Cola 600. Then with two laps left he cut a tire, once again sullying his run. Stewart’s disappointment became Kasey Kahne’s elation. As predicted, Kahne ran well at Lowe’s. His driver rating was a race best 131.8 and he led 66 laps. He was also a little fortunate that other top cars like Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson all had problems. This week as countless blogs and media websites talk about how Kahne is a championship contender, keep in mind that this is based off of Kahne’s performance at one track. He has been average at every other track in 2008. Five laps led and no top 5’s prior to Charlotte does not prove that Kahne is ready for a breakout summer.

• I have resisted declaring a problem with Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth as long as I could, but they now officially have problems with their intermediate programs. Neither could find the top ten until they each outlasted enough cars with some help from fuel mileage. Lost in his ability to finish well is the fact that Kevin Harvick is not running well either, and hasn’t at intermediate tracks in two years. each of the three is good enough at other tracks to still make the Chase, but winning races will be tougher to come by. The good news is that the summer does not feature a glut of intermediate tracks. The bad news is that the Chase does.

• David Reutimann scored his first Cup top ten and ran inside the top for almost two thirds of the race.
  

  “It was a good effort for everybody at Michael Waltrip Racing and Toyota did a great job — UPS for sticking with us through this whole program and we haven’t really done much to deliver any good finishes. I think this is maybe a start for things to come and I appreciate them sticking with me and everybody at the shop. I managed to run the top side of the race track all night without knocking the right side off, so that’s a good start. I enjoyed it — the guys did a great job and the pit stops were good. All in all our team’s coming together and I can’t wait until the next race.”

  Sam Hornish Jr also posted a career high of 12th.

• While seemingly every top car experienced some kind of setback, Jeff Burton spent 398 of 400 laps in the top 15, only falling out for green flag pit stops. It’s becoming Burton’s trademark, running well without incident and getting everything out of the car without pushing it too far.

• Have you noticed that most of the NASCAR themed commercials are shot at Phoenix Raceway? Why is that?

• A nice touch by Fox to make suggested pit adjustments throughout the night. It’s something that appeals to more advanced fans. The NASCAR 101 stuff is great, but for the fans that watch every race, it’s about time that the broadcast gives something to them too.

• It was amazing that BrianVickers’ stray tire avoided more trouble. Even after smashing into David Gilliland’s hood, the tire still had enough speed to roll several hundred yards and bounced over a fence and into a camper. That is a 25 pound tire that broke loose from a car going 170 mph and it dropped onto a canvas tent. Nothing was really mentioned about this, but that could have been scary.

• With Memorial Day on Monday, I also want to thank all of the people that allow me to watch and write about NASCAR from the comfort of my couch with nary a thought about my life being in danger. This comfort and freedom that we all enjoy is due to our armed forces, past and present. Thank you.

For more racing news and opinion, check out Racing Nation.

Races at Richmond are awesome. They’re short (in both time and track size), at night, feature competitive action and often offer up good theater in the way of feuds. Need more reasons?

What happened last year

It rained. As a result the race was moved from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon and Jimmie Johnson exercised his Richmond demons to win the first of his season sweep at the track. Hendrick cars took three of the top four spots in the spring race. Of course the bigger news that week was Dale Earnhardt Jr putting in his seven month notice that he was leaving DEI. That set off an onslaught of speculation about where the high-profile driver would wind up after the season. Sound familiar?

Quick Notes

• Tony Stewart has 12 top 10 finishes in 18 career Richmond starts. He also has three wins, although none since 2002.

• Until last year Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon both struggled at Richmond. Then Johnson won both races and Gordon scored two fourths. Gordon had not finished better than 31st in his previous four tries and Johnson had only one other finish (2nd in 2004) inside the top 10.

• Casey Mears is the only current Cup driver with more than four starts without a top ten at Richmond. Mears has ten starts with a best finish of eleventh in 2006.

• The first Richmond race was held in 1953 won by Lee Petty. 27 cars started the 200 lap event. The race was run on dirt until 1968.

• Richard Petty has the most victories with 13. AJ Allmendinger is tied for fewest with zero.

• Tim Richmond won the 1986 race at Richmond. (Note: I failed to mention last week that no driver named Talladega has ever won a race at that track.)

• Carl Edwards gets his crew chief Bob Osborne back this week after a six race suspension. Edwards was fast at Phoenix before a pit road problem. He was also fast at last fall’s Richmond race before he blew the engine.

Four to watch

• Kyle Busch He has five top fives in six Cup starts at Richmond. He had the dominant car in the fall 2006 race before Kevin Harvick pipped him with two laps left.

• Denny Hamlin: It could be a wheelbarrow race in Blacksburg, but as long as it featured Denny Hamlin in the state of Virginia, he’d be a threat to win.

• Kevin Harvick: Just like Hamlin takes to any race in the Old Dominion state Harvick thrives on the flat tracks. It could be a speedskating race in Vermont…you get the picture. Owns the best driver rating over the last six races at 121.2 and owns one win.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr Apparently Junior hasn’t won a Cup race in a while. He has won the last three spring races falling in even years. That stat means nothing in regards to Saturday night. His 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s does, though.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

A weekly glimpse at my picks from the Fantasy NASCAR game. If you haven’t signed up yet, a new segment is starting soon (like four races soon) which means you have a clean slate.

• Champ: Kurt Busch Busch won the 2005 fall race and also owns the fifth best driver rating (100.4) over the last six races.

• Chump: Clint Boywer So far this year Bowyer has been a compiler instead of a front runner. He can’t keep that up forever without experiencing some bad luck.

• Sleeper: Elliott Sadler No one really strikes me as a great choice among the sleepers this week. Sadler has the skill, experience, and just maybe the car (ran very well at Phoenix) to land in the top 15. Be sure and check out all of the Sleeper Analysis at One Bad Wheel

Who Will Win?

So far this season Kasey Kahne has been solid nearly every week. Richmond is the site of his first win and even in his worst years, he has run well at Richmond. It’s something about Richmond and drivers with open-wheel backgrounds like Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

What does Joe Gibbs Racing have to do to win at Bristol? Last spring at Bristol the three Gibbs cars led 443 of 500 laps only to have fuel pump issues that derailed the teams’ cars. In the August race Denny Hamlin had a fast car but blew an engine. This year the three cars led 372 laps, including 267 for Tony Stewart and again mechanical struck two of the three cars. First, after making his way to the front, Kyle Busch lost the power steering and wrecked. Then Denny Hamlin had the lead with 2 laps to go and his fuel pickup failed, allowing Jeff Burton to slip past for the lead.

Oh yeah. And Tony Stewart’s hopes—and his car– got sent packing when Kevin Harvick climbed the racetrack and bumped him into the wall. It all added up to a wild finish and more disappointment for JGR.

As JGR bobbled, Richard Childress Racing was there to pounce. The three cars finished 1-2-3 led by Burton. The finish only accented the fact the the Childress cars have improved over last year. While all three cars made the Chase, it was more a matter of surviving races than running at the front. Through five races the cars have already led 193 laps. Last year the cars led a measly 737 total laps. It’s a long season, but RCR has shown almost as much improvement as the Roush cars. Burton, Harvick and Bowyer are all adept at avoid trouble, so adding stronger cars to the mix makes RCR great optimism for the season.

Top 35 Derby

The top 35 is now set for Martinsville and a big name from a big team will have to qualify on speed. Jamie McMurray’s 43rd place finish cost him his spot in the top 35. McMurray hasn’t finished better than 22nd in the first five races, but has only one crash. The rest of the poor finishes, including his 40th at Atlanta, were the result of slow racecars. As well as the other Roush-Fenway cars have run in 2008, the #26 has been lousy.

McMurray shouldn’t have a problem qualifying for races and re-entering the top 35 (he’s only 4 points shy of 35th place Sam Hornish Jr.), but the fact that he is this far back is troubling. It also raises long term concerns for the #26 team. Crown Royal is a big money sponsor and can’t be pleased with their return on investment. Don’t forget Roush-Fenway also must eliminate a team after 2008 to comply with NASCAR’s cap. McMurray’s season is far from over, in fact Casey Mears was at a similar crossroads last year (and is again), and he bounced back to score a win and finish 15th. McMurray

Kyle Petty, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Dave Blaney also failed to retain a spot in the top 35. That sets up two weeks of wrangling about owners points, past champion’s provisionals and whether NASCAR has any kind of limits on what teams can do (more on this tomorrow).

Other Notes and Thoughts

• In Burton’s last three wins he has led a total of nine laps, all at the end of races. 6 at Dover in 2006, 1 at Texas in 2007 and the final two at Bristol. Talk about leading at the right time.

• I appreciate that NASCAR begins every race with an invocation, it’s a nice salute to the family values that the sport holds dear. Dropping sponsor’s names during the prayer is too far, however.

• Chris Myers said Bristol sells out faster than a Larry the Cable Guy concert. Apparently that is the standard for speed now. Maybe this is out of context, but it seems like a very stereotypical comment about NASCAR fans. I’m sure some NASCAR fans like Larry the Cable Guy, but somehow remarks like Myers’ only cement the idea of a NASCAR fan as lowest common denominator intelligence.

• I usually don’t complain about commercials and when breaks are taken, but Fox knew a competition yellow would fly at lap 50. So what do they do? Break under green flag racing at lap 40, then return just in time for the lap 50 caution. It’s these types of decisions that draws fans’ ire.

• The lengthy postrace coverage probably had more to do with filling time and keeping people from switching to basketball, but wouldn’t it be great if that happened after every race? It’s probably unnecessary to interview Jeff Burton’s entire family, but interviewing as many as nine or ten drivers was great.

• Moving the off-week back to March is a fantastic idea. Now I can devote my entire weekend to the NCAA tourney instead of the frantic flipping I usually do this time of year. I love it when sports dovetail together so nicely. As for my worth-less-than-the-price-of-this-bandwidth picks: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and Wisconsin. Sleeper? Let’s go with Clemson.

• Finally, if you are already tired of certain NASCAR commercials, they pale in comparison to the brutal ads during the NCAA tourney. From the classic yet annoying Looby Lawn to the uppity Cingular guy and every obnoxious chain restaurant in America (I’m looking at you Applebee’s) the spots are absolutely dreadful and worse, repetitive. Be thankful for the quality and variety of commercials, NASCAR fan.

For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation

Kevin Harvick finished 3rd on the money list, won the two richest races of 2007, the Daytona 500 and the Nextel All-Star Race, made the Chase, and had zero DNF’s. And the year was a major disappointmentAfter a major breakthrough in 2006, Harvick took a step backwards in 2007 and became a survivor as opposed to a front runner. Harvick is one of the most talented drivers in the sport and everything is still in place at Richard Childress for a major rebound in 2008

The season began on an incredible high. He won a dramatic Daytona 500 and followed that up by nearly winning the next week at California. He was catching leader Matt Kenseth until he got a flat tire under the final caution. After that, things cooled off. Four of the next five races ended with finishes of 25th or worse. The rest of the year was spent in the NASCAR underground. He would occasionally pop up to lead laps at a race here (Phoenix) and there (Chicago), but rarely was he challenging for wins (Richmond and Indy). In fact, the most attention he got after his All-Star win at Charlotte was for his face-washing/shoving incident with Juan Pablo Montoya at Watkins Glen.

All of his numbers dipped from 2006. His laps led number dropped by 70%, wins went from 5 to 1 and top 5’s from 15 to 4. He also had the worst average finish (15.5) among Chasers. At this point you might think I’m being too hard on Harvick. After all, he did make the Chase (along with his two teammates), he won the biggest race of the season and finished in 10th place overall. And all of that is quite an improvement compared to RCR’s recent past. All of this is true, but the truth is that Harvick is capable of so much more.

Harvick didn’t score as many top tens, but he had 28 top 20’s. That speaks to his ability to avoid trouble and finishing races. Harvick is an interesting test case for a theory I’ve had. Is avoiding DNF’s a skill? It sounds like a ridiculous question. When you see a driver getting caught up in someone else’s wreck the easy thought is tough luck.

However, in seven Cup seasons, Harvick has had zero or one DNF five times. In 250 career Cup races he only has 13 DNF’s total. The same pattern is found in his Busch career. So does that mean Harvick is simply luckier than other drivers? Answering yes to that sounds even more ridiculous than chalking DNF’s up to luck. Obviously there are races where Harvick has problems and just rides around to finish the race, but he is doing something to minimize that kind of situation. He is known for being very committed to sponsors and finishing races could be something Harvick puts greater value in than other drivers. It still doesn’t completely explain how Harvick can consistently run in the top ten and compete for wins but not wreck. It’s an impressive, if not uncommon, trait that helps make Harvick a top driver.

So what will 2008 look like for Happy Harvick? For starters, there is his ability to win on almost any type of track. If it’s flat, Kevin Harvick will find his way to the front. Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond, Indy and Chicago are all places that Harvick excels at. He also has wins at Bristol, Daytona and Watkins Glen proving his versatility.

Maybe the greatest weakness for the #29 team is the high speed intermediate tracks like California, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. Finding a comfortable setup at these tracks will be crucial for crew chief Todd Berrier. RCR did a good job last year of being above average at the CoT tracks. This year the goal has to be improving from above average to excellent, or in other words joining the Hendrick and Gibbs’ neighborhood of excellence.

Harvick’s talent is unquestioned; he can win on almost any type of track, he is incredible at avoiding danger on the track and RCR’s equipment should be even better in 2008. Making the Chase is fine and good, but it’s only the first step for a team like the #29 car. I expect 3 wins, 10 top 5’s, 18 top 10’s and for Harvick to threaten for a Cup title. Harvick has been given all the tools to compete for a championship, and as the proverb says, “to whom much is given, much is expected.”