Trouble in Turn2

Until last year the second Pocono race fell prior to the Brickyard 400. Under that arrangement we all believed that Pocono served as a tuneup for the Brickyard. We could catch a glimpse of who might run well at one of NASCAR’s elite events. Nevermind the fact that only two drivers, Jeff Gordon (’98) and Bill Elliott (’02) have won a Pocono race and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. We wanted to believe that the second Pocono had a place of meaning on the schedule. Now it’s the week after the Brickyard, granting it slightly more importance than the Pro Bowl in relation to the Super Bowl. It’s a points paying race, but boy is it hard for a fan to get excited about it. The one advantage Pocono does have is that it promises to be feature the longest green flag runs in three weeks and tires shouldn’t be an issue. I realize I’m hard on Pocono, but I also admit I will watch with the same weekly interest and the hope for a good race. The spring race was one of the more exciting Pocono finishes in recent years in fact.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr won his first Cup pole since 2002 but couldn’t hold back Kurt Busch. Busch led 175 of 200 laps and cruised to an easy victory. The race paralleled the points battle between the two drivers that also saw Busch eclipse Earnhardt Jr for 12th place and the final Chase spot. The race was also notable for the absence of Robby Gordon. He was busy sitting in a corner on timeout thanks to his antics at the Montreal Busch race the day before.

Notes

AJ Allmendinger and Red Bull Racing are only one or two solid runs from cracking the top 35 in owner points. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the first two races of the season and was then replaced by Mike Skinner for the next six. After returning to the car at Talladega, Allmendinger has run very well and only sits 63 points shy of 35th place Scott Riggs.

Chad McCumbee will drive the #45 for Petty Enterprises this weekend. McCumbee has failed to qualify at Texas and Dover, but did finish 25th in a Pocono race last year while subbing for Kyle Petty. Petty will return to the car next week at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t look like Petty Enterprises is in a huge rush to get Petty back in the seat which is the strongest signal yet that Petty is nearing retirement. Whether it’s Kyle Petty’s decision or not, more time out of the car will allow him to devote more time and energy to greater things like the Victory Junction Gang Camp. Petty definitely has some very personal reasons for remaining behind the wheel of the #45 and if it NASCAR rides were based on merit over performance Petty would have a ride for life.

5 Drivers Who Like Pocono

Jimmie Johnson has two wins in 13 starts. He only has one finish worse than 15th in his career which includes 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Johnson has run well all summer and more wins should follow his Indy triumph (please don’t call it momentum).

Kurt Busch has seven top fives including 2 wins and four 2nd place finishes.

Denny Hamlin won his first two times at Pocono in 2006. Since then he has never finished worse than 6th and has led 300 laps in only five starts.

Tony Stewart owns the third best driver rating(102.2) over the last seven Pocono events. He led 14 laps at the June race and appeared set for a top 5 run but was caught speeding on pit row, pinning him a lap down and relegated to 35th.

Ryan Newman has won the pole twice, the race once and has five other top 5’s. His 13.9 average finish is also above average.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kurt Busch See above. No matter what the rest of Busch’s season looks like (and right now it looks bleak), he always finds a way to run well at the Triangle of Tedium.

Chump: Clint Bowyer Bowyer hasn’t run well at speedways all season and that trend will likely continue at Pocono.

Sleeper: AJ Allmendinger: Check out his recent speedway driver ratings: Pocono I(95.2), Michigan (79.7), Chicago (83.2), Indy (98.4). That’s a driver ready for some top ten finishes.

Check out One Bad Wheel for more Fantasy news and info on Sleepers.

Who Will Stay Awake Win?

Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s important to remind everyone of the cardinal rule of Fantasy sports: Don’t Outsmart Yourself. Over the past few weeks I have grown tired of choosing Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson to win races each week. So this past week for the Brickyard I decided to tab a darkhorse, Brian Vickers to win. Vickers finished 42nd with an engine failure. While Vickers has certainly impressed this year and is a front runner on speedways, Red Bull Racing isn’t quite ready for prime time and it cost me.

That means this week I’m sticking my hand back into the heavy favorites hat and pulling out a name.

In five races Denny Hamlin has a 130.4 driver rating. That is not the result of one fast car or lucking out. Denny Hamlin is simply awesome at Pocono. After a pit road mistake cost him the race at Indy, you can be sure that was a point of emphasis at the Gibbs shop this week.

This weekend TNT brings back their Wide Open coverage for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. More racing and fewer commercials sounds pretty good. What is even better is a good race at a fun track under the lights and 100 miles shorter than the Daytona 500 in February. It all adds up to one of the best race packages of the season. The Pepsi Coke Zero 400 is almost always an exciting race. Sure there was the monsoon of ought five that pushed the finish past midnight on the west coast, but most races are filled with crashes, daring passes for the lead (the lead!), and heck even some pretty cool one-off paint schemes.

And there’s something else about the plate tracks to like too. It’s the little rivalries at restrictor plate races that add the extra juice. They are four races that have very little bearing on the rest of the season, but teams often take more pride in their plate programs. The current top dogs, Gibbs and Hendrick could offer a great battle this year. So far Toyota, and more specifically Gibbs Racing have dominated the restrictor plate tracks in 2008. One win, four top fives and 57% of all the laps led at Daytona and Talladega. That’s pretty dominant. And that is why I think Hendrick Motorsports will be up to the challenge. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have all won at Daytona and are all very good in the draft. Not all of the cars will be around at the end, but that’s just part of the excitement.

What Happened Last Year

Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin wrecked each other while running 1-2 early in the race. That led to some bickering in the garage. Meanwhile Jamie McMurray edged Kurt and Kyle Busch for his first win since 2002. It was the closest finish in Daytona history (.005 seconds).

Five Drivers Who Like Daytona

Dale Earnhardt Jr won the 2001 Pepsi 400 and the 2004 Daytona 500. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 17 starts.

Tony Stewart has two summer wins and has led 531 laps in ten races. That includes 151 of 160 at the 2005 race. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 19 starts. He also is the only driver with a driver rating above 100 for the last seven Daytona races (108.1)

Jeff Gordon has six wins, most among active drivers. Gordon has recently adopted a “wait and see” approach, which worked at both Talladega events last year and almost paid off again this spring.

Jimmie Johnson has often served as Gordon’s wing man on mad dashes to the front late in races. But Johnson is perfectly capable of winning races himself. He has the highest average running position (9.8) of all drivers over the last seven races, meaning he is always in the lead pack.

Matt Kenseth owns a 92.4 driver rating and has led laps in four of the last five races at Daytona. He has scored 4 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in his career at restrictor plate tracks.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Ryan Newman His Daytona 500 win was not a fluke. Penske has provided strong cars for Daytona and Talladega and Newman and Kurt Busch work well together.

Chump: Carl Edwards Edwards is good in the draft, but has lost his patience at times and that can be costly.

Sleeper: Elliott Sadler When it comes to restrictor plate races, Sadler is excellent at avoiding wrecks, picking the right lane and being around at the end to pick up a nice finish.

Who will win?

Hendrick and Penske cars will surely be strong with a splash of RCR mixed in (watch out for Clint Bowyer). Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are typically strong at Daytona, but Ford is mired in a mini-funk right now. All of these teams will be in the lead pack, but who will win the race? Joe Gibbs. Seriously, take your pick of driver. Denny Hamlin led 32 laps and may have had the best car at the Daytona 500 if not for a pit road accident. Kyle Busch led 86 laps and could, and did, go anywhere he wanted to on the track. Tony Stewart wasn’t as good during the day, but came alive at the end of the race when the sun went down, led 16 laps and finished 3rd. The same pattern held true at Talladega when Hamlin and Stewart seemed able to do whatever they wanted at the front of the pack and Kyle Busch overcame early problems to pop up late and win. Fans of variety, surprise and parity turn away now. Kyle Busch is going to win again. Just because the winner might not be a surprise, the race should be anything but dull.

After another disappointing and undeserved finish for Tony Stewart and the #20 team, it’s easy to wonder what’s wrong this year. The truth is, while some of their finishes have been lower than usual, Stewart rarely wins before June. In his 32 career wins, he has only won four races prior to June. In the last five seasons, he has won 12 races in the summer months and 5 wins each in July and August. Whatever the reason, Tony Stewart really loves the summer. Why? It’s probably a combination of many things. He’s excellent at many of the tracks like road courses, Daytona, Chicago, Indianapolis and Loudon. Maybe the hotter weather caters more to his driving style. It might be that Gibbs does more testing in the spring and he reaps the results in the summer (that was certainly the case in 2005), or that they experiment a little more at the start of seasons with the knowledge that the #20 car is good enough to be in contention at the end of the year.

While Stewart is exceptional in the summer months, other drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch have also traditionally hit their strides when the sun comes out. Here is a breakdown of the drivers with at least three wins in the summer since 2003 [note: due to some minor schedule tweaks, some races have changed months from year to year. I used the following breakdown. June (Dover, Pocono, Michigan, Sonoma). July (Daytona, Loudon, Chicago, Pocono). August (Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Darlington/California).

I’m not sure why, but I think there’s a problem with my table, keep scrolling. Sorry

Time permitting I hope to delve further into trends like this over a whole season. Looking at things like teams or drivers that peak at the right time, most successful drivers in the Chase, etc.

It’s your turn, tell me what the numbers mean to you. Are you Smoke fans excited for July? Can Kenseth and Kurt Busch restart their seasons? Why do some drivers thrive in the heat? Or just tell me it’s hogwash.

For the first 270 laps, Sunday’s race at New Hampshire was pretty tame. The leaders maintained comfortable leads with ease, the top ten positions didn’t change much and barring problems, cars were pretty much locked into a comfortable position and no one was passing. Then a caution came out when Jamie McMurray plowed through Dale Earnhardt Jr and suddenly all hell broke loose. The top drivers pitted while eight other cars stayed out, led by Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart, the dominant car for the day, pitted for two tires and was relegated to 14th on the restart. With one caution plus a pending storm it was pretty obvious that the final results had been turned upside down.

That set up a wild finish, but it wasn’t done yet. Kurt Busch jumped out on the restart, but had to battle lapped car Robby Gordon and nearly hit the outside wall. A few laps later Sam Hornish spilt Clint Bowyer to bring out the caution. Juan Pablo Montoya took the chance to controversy.

“[Busch] hit me under caution, he hit me under green and I retaliated. Did I go a little bit too far retaliating? Yeah. I told them[NASCAR officials] the only reason I did that was I was defending myself.

Somehow Busch tried to play coy and absolve himself from blame.

I got a run on him earlier and I got on the outside and he kind of kept coming up a little bit. I didn’t turn down into him and just barely touched his quarter panel. Then I got by him in three and four and he run me up the race track in the left rear. Then we came to that caution flag and he thought he beat me to the caution flag and I was just trying to get around the 40 (Dario Franchitti) car, who was in front of us there and touched him on the door and he just turned left and spun me down the front straight away. I don’t know what his beef is, but obviously NASCAR should probably fix it.

Montoya was penalized 2 laps for rough driving, dropping his final position to 32nd. His admission that the hit was intentional (which was pretty obvious on the replay) will probably cost Montoya some money, more points and probation for the remainder of the season. Montoya wasn’t going to make the Chase and is not broke so in my mind that biggest penalty is actually the probation. Why? It means Montoya won’t be able to partake in Facewashing with Harvick 2 at Watkins Glen this year. Comparing the Loudon incident with the quasi-fisticuffs from last made me realize something else. Montoya’s favorite expression, “I don’t appreciate that.” That’s getting worked into my everyday phrases. That or “My name is Juan Pablo Montoya, you killed my top 15, prepare to die.”

Some Random thoughts while avoiding the 90+ degree heat

• Bill Weber used “Strategery” when discussing pit stops. Even if it was for comedic value, it fizzled. Later he mentioned that Stewart could become the first driver to sweep the weekend and ended with a grumpy, “there’s a stat for ya’”. What’s wrong with stats? They never did anything to you. Maybe he was just sour today.

• Where was Roush? The fact that the TNT announcers called it a rebound when none of the five drivers were in the top ten is an indictment of how bad they were today.

• Casey Mears had a nice run before slipping at the end. In one sense I’m glad he didn’t score a surprising win because it spared us all headlines and nonsense about how he was more motivated this week. He still managed a top ten in back to back races for the first time this year. Watch out for Mears next weekend at Daytona. He’s good on restrictor plates and nearly won the race last year.

• By the way, Kurt Busch won the race.

• Michael Waltrip scored his first top five finish since 2005 (5th place at Pocono). It’s a huge boost not only for his effort to stay inside the top 35, but also for his sponsorship status with Napa.
  

  I’m not emotional about this, other than the fact to say it’s amazing that NAPA Auto Parts is still on my car after what we went through the last couple years. Just to do anything good for them, outside front row at Daytona, to have a finish like we did today, I just want to say thank you to them by doing well. That’s my goal, is to do good for them.

  Waltrip is often portrayed as a shill, but he really does get it. For all of his struggles in team ownership, he somehow still has large sponsors at least through this year, and he obviously realizes how fortunate he is. As an aside, Waltrip pitted two laps later than Kurt Busch and it would have been interesting to see how things would have ended without the rain stoppage.

• Question: Can you use “McMurray tried to drive through me” as a valid excuse for hitting the commitment cone on pit road?

For more racing news and opinion peep Racing Nation.

Almost every driver has that one track where they just can’t seem to win. It’s like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. No matter how well the approach is, how many different tactics he tried, it always ended with Lucy pulling the ball away. \Here’s a list of ten drivers still waiting for the big breakthrough at different tracks. The list features a lot of domination in the form of fruitless laps (laps led without winning), some close calls and plenty of heartbreak.

• Ryan Newman at Lowe’s In 14 career starts Newman has started from the pole times, scored three top five finishes and five top tens. He has also led 243 laps, the most of any active driver without a win at Lowe’s. He nearly won the 2007 fall race but a flat tire with three laps left sent him into the wall.

• Sterling Marlin at Short Tracks You would think someone with the credentials of Sterling Marlin would be able to score at least one short track win in a career spanning 32 years and 162 short track starts. Marlin has led 1221 laps and finished in the top five 12 times, but never as the top dog.

• Jeff Gordon at Texas-Gordon has 5 top fives and 326 laps led in15 career Texas starts. Texas and Homestead are the only Cup tracks where Gordon has been shut out of Victory Lane. It’s still hard to rank too high on the agony chart when you have won virtually race at almost every track on the circuit.

• Kurt Busch at a road course Busch has led 99 laps at the two Cup road courses, Sonoma and Watkins Glen. That is the highest number for all drivers without a win to show for it. He has finished 3rd, 4th and 5th at Sonoma. While he doesn’t have a top five at Watkins Glen, he did win the 2006 pole and lead 38 laps before getting caught entering the pits before they were open, ruining his chance at a win.

• Denny Hamlin at Richmond He only has five Cup starts at his home track, but has already seen his share of disappointment. He has two poles, two top fives a second, third and sixth place and led 448 laps but no champagne. He won the 2006 pole for the fall race, but then lost a cylinder. Then this year dominated the race only to cut a tire in the final 20 laps.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr at Martinsville 748 laps led and seven top five finishes in 17 career starts. Junior is still waiting for that first grandfather clock.

• Matt Kenseth at Chicago For a track without much history, Matt Kenseth has had several close calls at Chicago. In 2005 he dominated the race leading 176 laps but was snookered by Dale Earnhardt Jr on the final pit stop. In 2006 he again dominated leading 112 laps but was bumped and spun by Jeff Gordon with four laps left. He finished 2nd again last year to Tony Stewart.

• Jeremy Mayfield at almost everywhere Of active drivers, Mayfield has led the most laps that didn’t result in a win at Bristol and Darlington, Rockingham and the second most at Dover. With his recent struggles, it’s easy to forget that Mayfield was a pretty good driver in his prime.

• Tony Stewart at Talladega Eight second place finishes at the Alabama track show how close Smoke has come. In 2005 he was narrowly beat by Dale Jarrett when the caution flag flew on the final lap. He has also led the last nine Talladega races and 244 total laps in his career. At least his consolation was a Nationwide win this spring.

• Mark Martin at Daytona It’s hard to tell if Martin hates Daytona because he can’t seem to win there, or he can’t win because he hates it. Feelings aside, he nearly pulled off the feel good win last year before Kevin Harvick was declared the winner when the official sat on the caution flag. In 46 career starts, Martin has nine top 5’s, 16 top 10’s, 241 laps led, and a best finish of 3rd.

So what do you think? Who will be the first one off this list? Maybe Sterling Marlin will crush at Bristol.

Races at Richmond are awesome. They’re short (in both time and track size), at night, feature competitive action and often offer up good theater in the way of feuds. Need more reasons?

What happened last year

It rained. As a result the race was moved from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon and Jimmie Johnson exercised his Richmond demons to win the first of his season sweep at the track. Hendrick cars took three of the top four spots in the spring race. Of course the bigger news that week was Dale Earnhardt Jr putting in his seven month notice that he was leaving DEI. That set off an onslaught of speculation about where the high-profile driver would wind up after the season. Sound familiar?

Quick Notes

• Tony Stewart has 12 top 10 finishes in 18 career Richmond starts. He also has three wins, although none since 2002.

• Until last year Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon both struggled at Richmond. Then Johnson won both races and Gordon scored two fourths. Gordon had not finished better than 31st in his previous four tries and Johnson had only one other finish (2nd in 2004) inside the top 10.

• Casey Mears is the only current Cup driver with more than four starts without a top ten at Richmond. Mears has ten starts with a best finish of eleventh in 2006.

• The first Richmond race was held in 1953 won by Lee Petty. 27 cars started the 200 lap event. The race was run on dirt until 1968.

• Richard Petty has the most victories with 13. AJ Allmendinger is tied for fewest with zero.

• Tim Richmond won the 1986 race at Richmond. (Note: I failed to mention last week that no driver named Talladega has ever won a race at that track.)

• Carl Edwards gets his crew chief Bob Osborne back this week after a six race suspension. Edwards was fast at Phoenix before a pit road problem. He was also fast at last fall’s Richmond race before he blew the engine.

Four to watch

• Kyle Busch He has five top fives in six Cup starts at Richmond. He had the dominant car in the fall 2006 race before Kevin Harvick pipped him with two laps left.

• Denny Hamlin: It could be a wheelbarrow race in Blacksburg, but as long as it featured Denny Hamlin in the state of Virginia, he’d be a threat to win.

• Kevin Harvick: Just like Hamlin takes to any race in the Old Dominion state Harvick thrives on the flat tracks. It could be a speedskating race in Vermont…you get the picture. Owns the best driver rating over the last six races at 121.2 and owns one win.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr Apparently Junior hasn’t won a Cup race in a while. He has won the last three spring races falling in even years. That stat means nothing in regards to Saturday night. His 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s does, though.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

A weekly glimpse at my picks from the Fantasy NASCAR game. If you haven’t signed up yet, a new segment is starting soon (like four races soon) which means you have a clean slate.

• Champ: Kurt Busch Busch won the 2005 fall race and also owns the fifth best driver rating (100.4) over the last six races.

• Chump: Clint Boywer So far this year Bowyer has been a compiler instead of a front runner. He can’t keep that up forever without experiencing some bad luck.

• Sleeper: Elliott Sadler No one really strikes me as a great choice among the sleepers this week. Sadler has the skill, experience, and just maybe the car (ran very well at Phoenix) to land in the top 15. Be sure and check out all of the Sleeper Analysis at One Bad Wheel

Who Will Win?

So far this season Kasey Kahne has been solid nearly every week. Richmond is the site of his first win and even in his worst years, he has run well at Richmond. It’s something about Richmond and drivers with open-wheel backgrounds like Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

It feels like the Cup boys were just at Daytona, but eight races later the year is one fourth over. I’ve already discussed a few things we’ve learned so far, but it’s time to check out a few teams and drivers and hand out some grades for the quarter. It’s not a final grade (NASCAR is on semesters, right?), but more of a progress report.

These grades aren’t based strictly on performance, but more on preseason expectations. So a car or team expected to run in the thirties that is running in the teens or twenties is a bigger deal than Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch running well. It’s not a surprise that those two are winning races.

Talladega Preview

It’s easy to dismiss restrictor plates as a completely unpredictable crapshoot. There are more crashes and drivers have fewer control in certain situations, but the race outcome is not as simple as pulling one of 43 ping pong balls out of a hopper. Restrictor plate racing is a different category of racing just like road racing, short track racing and intermediate tracks. Each type of track requires its own kind of discipline.

When you think about the teams and drivers that run well at Talladega, they’re are almost always the same. How can that be a crapshoot? If it were truly a crapshoot you would see a small team stealing an occasional win. Instead certain teams have dominated restrictor plates and the domination is especially present at Talladega. Hendrick has won six of the last eight races. Before that DEI won five in a six race span.

It’s more accurate to say Talladega is a crapshoot for drivers not in the top ten. That is where the majority of the wrecks start and subsequently collect other cars. Good restrictor plate drivers like Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhadt Jr and Tony Stewart have all had their share of wrecks, but they also know how to avoid them. Believe it or not that takes skill.

What Happened Last Year

The 2007 spring Talladega race was a bit of a bore as the cars stayed single file for almost an entire fuel run. Then a late wreck set up a frenzied finish with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson making their way to the front before the caution flag froze the field and Gordon won his second straight Cup race. The caution was caused by a wild wreck involving Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray, David Gilliland and a scary crash for Tony Stewart. Smoke also had some choice words after the race:

We get hit and then pushed in the wall. We’re done wrecking right there and then all of a sudden get jacked up by the No. 38 car for no reason. There was absolutely no reason for that to happen. He’s just taking it out on us for yesterday when he turned down across the nose. Leapt into his Cup ride but I don’t know, we’ll see.

Front Runners

• Jeff Gordon: He has two straight wins and has also won three of the last four spring events. Gordon also owns the best driver rating of the last six Talladega races. His two wins last year came courtesy of great surges on the final lap to take the lead.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr: Jr has won four Talladega races, although that don’t mean sh*t because he hasn’t won since 2004. Jr will find his way to the front and, like at Daytona, stay there for most of the day. That is the difference versus the last few seasons with DEI.

• Tony Stewart: Stewart has six runner up finishes but zero wins. He has a total of eight top 5’s and eleven top 10’s in 18 career Talladega starts. With the horsepower that the Camry’s cranked out at Daytona, he has everything required to finally win at Talladega.

• Kurt Busch: Busch has done almost everything but win a restrictor plate race. Laps led 89, top fives (6), wrecks, but no win, yet. The Dodges were more competitive at Daytona than any other track in 2008.

• Jamie McMurray: McMurray has an interesting pattern to his Talladega runs. He has four straight top tens, including three consecutive 5th place finishes in the spring race. In the fall race he has never scored a top ten and wrecks have brought him home in 37th the last two years. Fifteen percent of all his career laps led have been at Talladega. It doesn’t sound like a large number until you consider that Talladega races only have 188 laps per event.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

My Pick

The big question this week, actually it has been every week this year, asks if this is the week for Dale Earnhardt Jr to finally win. Sure he could. But there are a lot of other competitors to make it a slam dunk. One to watch is Kyle Busch, who was dominant at Daytona, but Talladega hasn’t treated Shrub well in the past. I wanted to pick Tony Stewart for the third straight week, but that’s boring. So I went with the next best thing: Denny Hamlin.

Don’t forget to enter the 50 Years of Daytona DVD contest.

After the tire debacle at Atlanta, things can only be better at Texas right? As the tour returns to a high-speed 1.5 mile track, questions remain about the tires. There is a lot of pressure on Goodyear to find a softer, more competitive tire while at the same time retaining the safety. Public opinion wasn’t helped when NASCAR declined Texas Motorspeedway president Eddie Gossage’s invitation for an additional tire test. If things aren’t improved at Texas, it would be embarrassing for NASCAR and Goodyear.

Hopefully that’s the last mention of tires this weekend, so let’s move on to the race itself. In its short history, Texas Motorspeedway has certainly had a rich story. A lap one wreck took out a fourth of the field in the first race. Weepers (and you thought it was a new term at California). Threatened Lawsuits. Jackmen attacking drivers. And that’s only over fourteen races and eleven years of existence.

The Entry List

• Mark Martin returns to the #8 car after his spring break. No he wasn’t at Senor Frogs (although I haven’t verified that).
• Kyle Petty is replaced in the #45 car by Chad McCumbee. More on the Petty situation tomorrow.
• Ken Schrader and Emeril Racing (BAM!) said, “Sike! We’re not going to enter Texas.”
• Schrader might not go racing at Texas, but Burney Lamar is. So to the fans yearning for Burney, be sure to catch Friday’s practice session because making the race is a long shot.

Last Year’s Race

Jeff Burton led the final two laps after a tough battle with Matt Kenseth to nab his only win of 2007. However, as is often the case, the big talk that Monday morning was not about the winner. The wreck involving Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Busch while they slowed for a caution grabbed the headlines. Busch left so Earnhardt stuck around and drove the #5 car for a few laps. I still believe this was unrelated to the later events that saw Earnhardt replace Busch at Hendrick, but it was all anyone wanted to talk about during the week. Both drivers have obviously adaptied to the changes well.

Who runs well?

• Tony Stewart-Won the 2006 fall race and has the best driver rating (109.3) over the last six Texas races.
• Matt Kenseth-He has led 374 laps at Texas and has led at least one lap in 9 of the last 10 races.
• Denny Hamlin-He has four top tens in five career starts. It could have been five for five. He was leading the race last fall when he got loose racing Kenseth too hard and hit the wall.
• Martin Truex Jr-Won the fall 2007 pole and has a 95.7 driver rating in five career starts. So far this year he has not been near the front like the way he ended 2007.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr-He got his first career Cup win at Texas in 2000 and also has seven top tens in 11 tries. I’ll bet anyone a billion dollars that win gets mentioned on Sunday along with some kind of parallel to his first win with Hendrick Motorsports if he is leading at any point in the race.

Fantasy Picks

Champs
Kurt Busch has done almost everything but win at Texas. That includes wrecking former teammate Greg Biffle two years ago that incited a near catfight between the significant others. When he stays on the track the #2 team has had several strong runs only to unravel in the pits.

Chumps
This week the Chumps list is extremely difficult to interpret. Eight of the top 11 Texas driver ratings belong to drivers in this category. Three others, Kasey Kahne Ryan Newman and Jeff Burton have won at Texas. The other two on the list, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick, have had good runs at other intermediate tracks this year. Since his win at Daytona, Newman has one top ten (California).

Sleepers
Casey Mears really likes Texas. In eight career races he has 2 top fives and four top tens. Both numbers are tops for Mears at any track. Racing luck and misfortune have hindered his point standing so far this year, but the cars have been pretty good.

Who will win? Tony Stewart has watched his teammates win two of the last three races. Now it’s his turn. Wouldn’t it be great if he peeled off his firesuit and he had a message waxed in his back hair? Something like “Suck it Goodyear”. [I’m the only one?]

Go fast or go home. It’s a phrase no team wants mentioned in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the teams that have not cracked the top 35 in 2008 owner points will have to qualify on speed for one of the final eight transfer spots. Once the top 35 gets set after Bristol, the chances of entering or exiting that safe haven decrease each week. That places immense pressure on this week’s race for teams that need to either hang on or move up. Holding the crucial fifth race at the potentially volatile Bristol track makes it even more tense. You can be sure nine or ten teams will be packing extra heartburn medicine this weekend.

Two teams have already locked themselves in for race six at Martinsville. Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers could fail to qualify for Bristol(Busch has a provisional anyway) and still have enough points to stay in the top 35. For other drivers it is less fun. Only 86 points separate 31st through 39th. It sounds like a lot, but making a race guarantees 34 points. If a car currently inside the top 35 like Michael Waltrip misses the race, that opens the door for another outside the top 35.

Right now JJ Yeley sits in the final spot in the top 35 safety zone. He is only 18 points ahead of 36th place Sam Hornish Jr, which is the difference of six places, less with five bonus points for leading a lap. 5 teams that will make the Bristol race due to their 2007 owners points are currently outside the top 35 based on 2008 owners points. The #01, #22, #40, #45, #77 all face the possibility of squandering their early season fortune.

All four rookies currently sit outside the top 35. Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Patrick Carpentier sit in 36th, 38th, 39th and 46th respectively. Smith is the only driver that has previously raced at Bristol and that could provide an advantage. The tight confines of Bristol pose a much different challenge and smaller margin for error than the wider and bigger speedways the tour raced at the last three weeks.

It’s also interesting that the open wheelers are all struggling mightily. Hornish Jr had a top 15 at Daytona but then wrecked in his next two starts. Franchitti hasn’t wrecked, but simply run at the tail of the field every week. Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger haven’t qualified for races and sinking their chances before they even had a chance to crash on Sundays. All of this makes Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut even more impressive. At the same point last year Montoya was safely inside the top 35 and scored a top five at Atlanta.

The rookie struggles means, strange as it sounds, that a driver with zero Cup starts could wind up as Rookie of the Year. The #00 has a nice points cushion thanks to David Reutimann making every race so far. After Martinsville, Reutimann will shift to the #44 (also inside the top 35) and rookie Michael McDowell will take the wheel of the #00. He won’t set the world on fire, but he could be the only rookie with a guaranteed starting spot each week.

Rookies, open-wheelers, and open-wheel rookies aren’t the only teams that will need a second coat of Old Spice this weekend. Michael Waltrip Racing currently has all three cars locked inside the top 35, although the #44 and #55 are toeing the edge of the cliff. After a nightmare 2007 debut, Waltrip has rebounded but there is still one more race for each car to make.

Further up in the points are two drivers from marquee teams. Casey Mears in 30th place and Jamie McMurray in 31st are each one bad Bristol crash from plunging into serious danger. Both are top 20 drivers in top 10 equipment, but can’t seem to garner their deserved finishes. It’s one thing to struggle, but another thing entirely to flirt with the top 35.

On the other end of the spectrum is Kyle Petty. He has made every race, but he sits 40th in the points and needs a lot of help or a spectacular run at Bristol to keep his guaranteed starting spot. His teammate Bobby Labonte has been very competitive each week, but Petty has not finished better than 32nd. His 28.5 driver rating exemplifies the team’s struggles. For Petty Enterprises this year it’s one step forward (#43 car) and one backward.

All in all, the bottom 35 is filled with interesting stories. What happens at Bristol will have consequences for the concerned parties for the rest of the year.

Last Week’s Caption Contest Winner

Thanks to everyone that submitted captions. The winner is John. He wins a $20 gift certificate to use at Whatever Sports.