Trouble in Turn2

One of the first topics to come up when a Cup race at Michigan is mentioned is fuel mileage. That is something that usually sets Michigan apart, but this year has already featured four such finishes including the June Michigan race. What is it about Michigan that lends itself to fuel mileage races? I suspect it has to do with a lack of cautions thanks to a wider racing surface plus the ability to pass without incident. It doesn’t explain everything, but it will be a factor come Sunday.

What Happened Last Year

Rain happened. A lot of rain that delayed the race for two days. When the track finally dried on Tuesday morning Kurt Busch was the dominant car, leading 92 laps and winning his second race in three weeks. To be honest, it was a rather uneventful race which seems to fit the mold of rain delayed races. Everyone usually wants to get it over with, pack up and go home.

Notes

• Only 44 cars are on the Michigan entry list. Quick quiz: When was the last time a race only had 43 cars entered? Hint: It’s probably more recent than you think. Last year’s Daytona 500 featured a 61 car entry list. Now the number of willing participants has dwindled to 44. Granted Michigan is longer trip from Charlotte, but the bottom rung teams are really struggling to afford cars each week. [2004 at Rockingham was the last Cup race to feature only 43 entrants, while the 2002 Loudon race was the last with a short field].

• Tony Stewart is entered in this weekend’s Nationwide race and he will sport a special paint scheme publicizing the “Give the Kids the Wolrd view-A-Thon”.
  

  the #20 Old Spice Car will have a new look as it races to help special children from around the world. Give Kids The World, the nonprofit organization that provides week-long, cost-free vacations to Central Florida for children with life-threatening illnesses and their families, will be honored with its very own “Give Kids The World Village” design. The brightly colored car was designed by Wish child Emily Marsala and will be driven by Joe Gibbs Racing driver Tony Stewart.

  In celebration of this unique partnership, Give Kids The World is encouraging NASCAR fans everywhere to participate in a View-A-Thon to help us raise $25,000, or $100 for every mile of the race.

  

• Brad Coleman will make his Cup debut on Sunday, when he takes the wheel for Hall of Fame Racing’s #96 car. Coleman is only 20 and is a legitimate prospect. He will need to qualify on time, but given his solid Busch/Nationwide qualifying record (16.7 avg start) he shouldn’t have a problem. It will be interesting to see whether he can improve on JJ Yeley’s numbers for 2008. While Yeley definitely struggled this year, I don’t think it was all his fault. The team could probably use some veteran feedback to set a workable baseline. You know, someone like Mike Skinner. Unfortunately for HoF Racing, Toyota’s official/unofficial consultant is already booked this weekend for Michael Waltrip Racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is inching closer to winning and there won’t be a better chance than at the track that Roush owns (not in the literal sense like Roger Penske formerly did, but in the Jimmie Johnson, My House! sense).

Chump: Kyle Busch Yeah I said it! He wasn’t great at Indy and was decent at Pocono. I think he’s due for a crash this weekend.

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin is phenomenal at Michigan: 4 wins, 16 top 5’s and 27 top 10’s. He also has an 81.3 driver rating in the past seven events and that includes two cool Batman paint schemes.

Who Will Win?

Matt Kenseth. I don’t need to explain why. He’s due, he’s good at Michigan and Roush cars always win at least once at Michigan. Plus I want to see more robot commercials.

[Note: Blogging is a great thing. It allows for freedom and flexibility. These things only apply with the help of a computer, which in my case went AWOL Sunday night. My apologies.]

All right people, move along. Kyle Busch won another Cup race. Nothing to see here.

After Dale Earnhardt Jr passed Busch on the second lap of the race it looked like Busch would be relegated to a middling finish. Instead Busch got off sequence with most of the leaders, pitted earlier and suddenly grabbed the lead and his sequence won out. Given the fact that Busch was joined by his Gibbs Racing teammates, Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin, on the early pit stop makes you wonder if it was all planned to sandbag the first 15-20 laps.

While some are noting that Busch is closing in on the #1 seed in the Chase, he has already clinched it. Carl Edwards could match his 8 wins, but because of the penalty at Las Vegas he can’t match Busch’s 80 bonus points. The other thing to take away from Watkins Glen is that aside from Busch’s 10 bonus points, the race has zero bearing on what will transpire during the Chase. There are no road races during the Chase, so teams can’t really apply anything they learned on Sunday. Plus the concept of momentum is as effective as the rabbit’s foot on Bobby Labonte’s keychain (seriously, I can’t name a driver that gets caught up in more bad wrecks than Labonte).

While the race won’t have a bearing on the Chase, it did highlight how off Jeff Gordon and Steve Letarte have been at times this year. They’ve struggled at other tracks this year, most notably at certain intermediate speedways, but Gordon is one of the elite road course racers. To struggle at Watkins Glen, especially when teammates Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson ran well, was shocking. While Letarte won’t have to set up another road car, the fact that they missed a fundamental chance for a good day is noteworthy in the Chase.

If you missed Sunday’s race at Pocono here is a quick recap in a segment I like to call, “Pocono in a nutshell”: Carl Edwards won(again) the race on fuel mileage, Mark Martin was undone by no fault of his own (again), Jimmie Johnson looked strong(again) and the Deathstar(Kyle Busch) appears to be penetrable(slightly). Meanwhile my kitchen remodel is coming along nicely.

Pocono ended i a fuel mileage race which is becoming a trend this year. I have a theory why. The CoT is so hard to drive that teams are willing to take more risks with strategy because it’s so difficult to pass under green. The fact that there are fewer cautions late with the car also means longer green flag runs at long speedways like Pocono and Michigan which also contributes.

• Nice run for Chad McCumbee in the #45 Petty Enterprises car. He finished a career high 17th on Sunday. It was only the 3rd top 20 of the season for the team as they scramble to crack the top 35. They still sit in 40th place and Kyle Petty will return to the seat next week at Watkins Glen. Last year when Petty drove at the Glen he got in a wreck, finished last and injured himself after slamming his hand in frustration. In an unrelated story Petty Enterprises is ordering extra steering wheel padding.

• One of the silliest graphics during a broadcast is the “estimated fuel gauge”. Whenever there is a fuel mileage race, the networks pull that one out. It’s inaccurate, doesn’t really show the viewer anything they didn’t already know and usually all the drivers listed on the graphic are all low on fuel. Thanks for the info, TV.

• Speaking of no fuel, did anyone else think it was funny when Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon drag raced to the finish line as both ran out of fuel? It was like a photo finish in speedwalking.

• Kevin Harvick regained his spot in the top 12 with a 4th place finish. He spun on the first lap, but incredibly didn’t hit anything. Despite the 4th place result, he didn’t gain many points on his closest competition because David Ragan finished 5th, Clint Bowyer 6th and Matt Kenseth led a lap and finished 11th. Only 19 points separate the four drivers with only five races left. While everyone from TV, news and nerdy, stats-based bloggers will talk about the Chase and how close the points battle is, Harvick will take a different approach, “You just go out and race as fast as you can. That’s about all you can do.” And Harvick is exactly right. Everything else is out of his control. According to Sports Club Stats, Harvick has a 69.2% chance of making the Chase while Ragan in 14th has a less than 50% chance. It’s going to stay crazy until Richmond.

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The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004.

The 2005 rookie class only features two members, Kyle Busch and Travis Kvapil. Busch has been a hot prospect since he was a teenager and is now a bona fide superstar thanks to his big year in 2008. Meanwhile Kvapil has taken a more indirect path to the Cup series but looks to have finally established himself as a skilled Cup driver.

Kyle Busch made his NASCAR debut at 16 in the Truck Series in 2001. NASCAR created an age limit for their top three series and Busch was forced to wait until he turned 18 before he could compete again. If not for the rule he may have made his Cup debut prior to his 18th birthday. Upon his return it didn’t take long to stand out. He won 5 races in the Busch Series in 2004 and finished 2nd in the points.

In 2005 he moved to the #5 car at Hendrick Motorsports, replacing the retiring legend Terry Labonte. He won two races and became the youngest driver to win a Cup race at age 19. Despite typical rookie struggles, Busch scored 9 top 5’s, 13 top 10’s and finished 20th in the overall standings. He won Rookie of the Year in a class of two.

In 2006 and 2007 Busch didn’t ascend to stardom but did win two races and made the Chase playoff field in both seasons. He also had his share of controversy with other drivers due to his attitude and occasional bouts of immaturity. He left Hendrick Motorsports after 2007 to make way for Dale Earnhardt Jr and he landed a ride with Joe Gibbs Racing. Whether it was the move or simply Busch’s experience catching up with his talent, 2008 has been a banner year. Through July Busch has
seven wins and leads the point standings.

Travis Kvapil won the 2003 Truck Series title but didn’t land a Cup ride until 2005. Roger Penske hired him to drive their third car, the #77. In hindsight it was an exercise in futility. Kvapil did not have the same equipment as his teammates, Ryan Newman and Rusty Wallace, and he struggled all season. He managed only 2 top tens and teetered on the edge of the top 35 in points.

After the 2005 season the #77 team was contracted and Kvapil was left to scramble for another ride. The best he could manage was with Cal Wells’ fledging PPI Racing team. The team hadn’t been competitive since 2003 and Kvapil again had little chance of success. Kvapil didn’t finish better than 19th and struggled to simply make races. The team folded after the 2006 seson relegating Kvapil to the Truck Series again.

After a successful truck season Kvapil was hired by Yates Racing to drive the #28 car. Teamed with crew chief Todd Parrott, the duo has found speed in the car. Kvapil has three top tens through 20 races, proving he is a capable driver given quality equipment.

Verdict: Kyle Busch is one of the top stars in NASCAR and has an excellent chance at his first Cup title this year. Kvapil took a while to find a decent team but has displayed his skill. It’s difficult to rate the class very high in comparison to other deeper classes. In ten years Busch may wind up as one of the two or three best drivers to emerge since Tony Stewart was a rookie in 1999. that would probably reflect well on the class too.

On Monday morning at the water cooler the NASCAR fans that have been talking about Kyle Busch all summer will be talking about tires. In November, the same fans might be talking about Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johnson. Whatever struggles the organization had early in the season are no longer an issue. Jimmie Johnson was in a class by himself at Indianapolis, leading 71 laps and winning his second Brickyard 400. As I have written before, Jimmie Johnson is still the reigning Cup holder. It is his until someone takes it from him. He and the #48 team have their speedway program in order after the slow start. It’s not just Johnson’s team either. Jeff Gordon ran in the top five all day, led 7 laps and had a 120.1 driver rating while finishing 5th. Dale Earnhardt Jr had a very fast car but had to play catchup the entire race after an early flat tire put him a lap down.

Thanks to the tire wear issues, the race was reduced to a series of heat races. With green flag runs lasting no longer than 12 laps thanks to crashes and NASCAR dictated competition cautions, there were 11 caution flags that created essentially 12 segments. Despite the erratic pace to the day, Johnson always found his way to the front. Of the 12 “segments”, Johnson was the leader entering the pits on 8 of them not to mention when he took the checkered flag. While others tried pit strategy to gain the lead, Johnson simply drove to the front with ease. That is the kind of performance it will take to beat Kyle Busch during the Chase. Sunday Hendrick Motorsports showed that they can still produce dominant cars, and my guess is that there’s more where that came from.

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All the attention right now is focused on Kyle Busch and rightfully so given his incredible season. That’s probably fine with Jimmie Johnson. Johnson is probably the most invisible 2-time champion in the history of NASCAR. Johnson has only one win so far in 2008, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t running well. Fans, writers and broadcasters might not notice Johnson like in past years, but when September rolls around, the #48 car will be in the thick of the championship hunt.

He began this season with a wreck at Daytona, a 2nd place at California and one race, Las Vegas, where he and the team were out to lunch. Johnson had a 47.1 driver rating at Vegas, which is totally unacceptable for a team like the #48. At that point the team realized they were behind on the Car of Tomorrow (CoT) and dedicated themselves to more testing. The Hendrick teams conceded that last year’s Chase set back the #24 and #48 cars. It cost them testing time on the CoT speedway program last fall and both teams struggled in the early months of the season.Some teams might have dismissed the poor run at Las Vegas and kept things unchanged for a few weeks, but crew chief Chad Knaus and Johnson were willing to strive for improvement based only on three races.

The testing didn’t result in wins, but the progress can be seen. He led 65 laps and had a 130.6 driver rating at Texas, the first intermediate track after the team’s intense testing. The next week he again had a driver rating of 130, led 120 laps and won the race at Phoenix. Then he led 35 laps at Lowe’s before suffering a blown engine while leading the race with 49 to go. The engine failure was the first since 2005 for Johnson. Despite his DNF and 39th place finish he still had a 94.5 driver rating, showing how strong he was.

This summer has seen Johnson have a driver rating better than 100 in 5 of 7 races. He had top three cars at Pocono, Michigan, Loudon and Chicagoland. A win is coming and it should come before the Chase begins. He has won at Indianapolis, Pocono, California and Richmond. After a sluggish spring, Johnson is back to being a threat to win on a weekly basis, regardless of the track.

Chad Knaus is the master of playing the game to his advantage. Last year they won 6 races before the Chase and took several risks in others in order to accumulate as many bonus points as possible. Many people saw Jeff Gordon with a huge points lead prior to the Chase, but Johnson and Knaus had the most wins. They also saved some of their best cars for the Chase. I suspect Knaus is running a similar plan for this year’s Chase.

Even if Johnson doesn’t win another race before the Chase, he has made up large deficits in previous years and can do it again. Since 2004 when the Chase began, Johnson has won 11 races during the Chase. Only one other driver (Greg Biffle has four wins) has won more than three races. The tracks set up incredibly well for Johnson. He has won at eight of the ten Chase tracks that account for 21 total wins. Only Homestead and Kansas have eluded Johnson, although he led the most laps at the 2006 Kansas race and finished 2nd in the 2004 Homestead race.

So go ahead, pick Kyle Busch to win every remaining race, the championship and America’s hear (just kidding). Go on and say that Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt Jr will pose serious threats for the title, or that Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth will wriggle into contention, but to me Jimmie Johnson is still the champion until someone else takes it from him. And for every driver and fan that isn’t paying attention, Johnson is ready to sneak up on everyone. Again.

In the last four races dating back to Sonoma we have seen Kyle Busch in a nutshell. He has won three races at three completely different tracks and also thrown in a nice scuffle at Loudon for good measure. Since his crash at Pocono (and the accompanying nonsense about his lack of focus) he has seen his lead grow from 21 points to 262. If the Chase started today he would have a 50 point lead over Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

After Kyle Busch’s first win of the season at Atlanta, I compared his fourth Cup season (at age 23) to that of Jeff Gordon’s 1995 season. In that season, Gordon’s 3rd in Cup (age 23), he won 7 races, had 17 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s, and won his first of four championships. At the time it seemed like a fair comparison. Through three years, Busch’s numbers were very similar to Gordon’s at the same age. Of course, thanks to Busch’s last four races, he is on a completely different plane. Busch is beginning to look like the Jeff Gordon of 1996-1998 when he won 10, 10 and 13 races respectively.

It’s undeniable that Busch is having a great season, but let’s hold off with the “Legendary” labels for now. The 2007 New England Patriots could speak intelligently on the subject. While some fans still feel the Chase is contrived, it’s one more challenge that Busch and any other driver has conquer. Of course Busch is doing everything he can in the regular season to gain the NASCAR equivalent of home field advantage throughout the playoffs by racing up as many bonus points as possible. Even if his 50 point lead holds up or grows, he will still face serious competition during the final ten races. Remember, 50 points is the difference between 1st and 8th place. Carl Edwards is stout on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks that litter the Chase schedule. Dale Earnhardt has run in the top 5 for the entire season and Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into to form (he will win at least one to two more races before the Chase starts). Even teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have the tools to challenge Busch for the title during the final stretch. Go ahead and pile the compliments on Kyle Busch’s plate right now, he’s had a dream season to this point. But be careful to assume that Busch will win continue winning races at this pace or that the Chase is only a formality.

• Last week I questioned the need for more night races, but Chicago was a good show. It was a lot tougher to pass at Chicago than some of the similar tracks earlier this year and drivers really had to work for several laps to set up passes. Whether that is from the cooler night temperatures, Goodyear’s improved tires, the quality of the Chicago or a combination of factors, it was a good race to watch. The incredible sunset was a nice touch too.

• Speaking of tough to pass, is there a driver that is tougher to pass than Matt Kenseth? He is so adept at finding the line where another driver wants to be and making it really difficult for other drivers. It’s nothing illegal or cheap but it’s his signature move. Other drivers try it, but no one is able to hold on for so many laps with an inferior car to the one attempting to pass.

• TNT took a commercial break while the race was under green with 17 laps left. In a race that featured a lot of tight racing and had just featured a late pass for the lead, TNT should have stayed with the final 20 laps until either the finish or a caution flag. I realize how difficult it is to time commercials and balance the coverage with paying bills, but it seemed like a poor decision. What happens if Johnson cuts a tire, or Kyle Busch wrecks trying to run Johnson down? It created a situation where a race-altering move could have been missed in the final laps of the race.

• Kevin Harvick scored his first top 5 since Richmond nine races ago. The 3rd place finish allowed him to jump 4 spots in the standings to 9th. Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer’s tailspin continued. After his win at Richmond, Bowyer sat in 4th place in the points and had scored 7 straight top tens. He now sits in 13th and only has two top tens in the last nine. The reason for Bowyer’s slide? In the first quarter of the season he ran in the top ten and top 15 avoided trouble to maximize his finishes. Now Bowyer is still running in the top 15 but has not been able to improve his position. His driver rating (79.7) is 17th best. If Bowyer hopes to make the Chase, that number will have to improve.

• Barring major catastrophe the top 5 drivers are pretty well locked into the Chase. Starting with Jeff Gordon in 6th place and back to 15th place David Ragan, there is only a 200 point gap. A lot could happen between now and Richmond to shuffle the bottom half of the Chase field.

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We’re in a recession. Everyone’s felling it and it’s not very funny. But what’s the point if you can’t at least try and laugh about it.

1. The Labor Day race at Fontana will be moved to LA and filmed in front of a green screen. (note: I’ve seen the script and you won’t believe what happens to Kirk Shelmerdine!)

2. Fans at Talladega cease throwing bottles and cans at Jeff Gordon in order to collect the deposit.

3. Pocono sets up a tollbooth at the start of the Long Pond straightaway.

4. With DEI exceeding their budget for tires, crew chief Bono Manion tells Martin Truex to stay out…the entire race.

5. In addition to their necks, fans are now seeing red on their bank statements.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr collectors only buy nine diecast cars this year instead of the normal eleven.

7. The pace car becomes a Toyota Prius. Pace car driver Brett Bodine is replaced by a remote control operated by a 12 year old.

8. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart can’t even buy a win.

9. After the prerace invocation, Mike Helton tries to pass offering plates around the pit area.

10. In an effort to save fuel the #18 pit crew will push Kyle Busch’s car during all burnouts.

11. Bloggers can’t even afford to complete their top ten lists.

Enjoy your weekend and may Saturday’s race be a nice diversion from reality.

Saturday night’s race at Daytona was a perfect example of why Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are having such great seasons. They have each enjoyed dominant stretches during the season, but their ability to take advantage of other’s mistakes and finish well when they’re at less than their best is why they are both early favorites to win the Championship.

Busch was solid early on when swapping the lead with Dale Earnhardt Jr. But then he somehow lost the steering on the car(a theme for the race) and fell to the last car on the lead lap. Meanwhile Edwards only spent 72 laps in the top 15 and didn’t crack the top ten until lap 92. The only lap he led was when he stayed out under yellow on lap 112, but then went to the back of the pack on the next lap. And then with three laps left Edwards and Busch were suddenly both poised to win the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and even David Gilliland had greater chances at winning, only to see them all slip from a variety of reasons. What Edwards and especially Busch did is exactly what Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson did last year. They didn’t thrash everyone on a weekly basis, but were very opportunistic and finished races when others didn’t. That’s the quality of a top team.

Kyle Busch now has 60 points towards his Chase score. That’s 40 more than Edwards and Kasey Kahne. If other drivers with title ambitions like Earnhardt Jr, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart hope to keep up, they need to rattle off a few wins to close the gap at the start of the Chase.

• Tony Stewart suffered from dehydration and had to have JJ Yeley sub for him midway through the race. The look on Stewart’s face after he exited the car was one of pure exhaustion. Sometimes it’s easy to forget how physically and mentally demanding races can be, especially at restrictor plate where there is no time to relax.
  

  “I thought we were going to be able to (make it) for the first two runs, but once the car got a little bit loose and we had to start really sawing on the wheel, it’s like it zapped the energy out of me and I started making mistakes. It was a situation where I was trying to look out for everybody involved on the race team. I wasn’t doing us any favors by not being 100 percent. It was better to get out as early as we could versus sticking it out with 20 to go and expecting J.J. (Yeley) to get the thing back in the top-five. It’s one of those decisions you have to make early enough, and I knew I wasn’t feeling good and I wasn’t feeling any better and it was getting worse as we were going. Before the race, the nurse said she was going to buy us a couple of hours and we got three hours out of it. We still had to go out there and try.

• Kyle Petty and Bill Weber were trying to name other recent substitute drivers, but never answered their own question. Ricky Rudd subbed for Stewart in 2006 at Dover after Stewart hurt his shoulder at Lowe’s. Petty subbed for Kevin Harvick at Bristol in August 2004 when Harvick’s arm went numb. Dale Earnhardt also required subs at Loudon (Martin Truex) and Pocono (John Andretti) after his fiery accident in a Grand Am event at Infineion in 2004.

• DEI had a mixed bag this weekend. Paul Menard was the surprise pole winner and led the first ten laps. Mark Martin started 2nd and spent the majority of the race in the top ten before finishing 10th. On the other hand Regan Smith hit Menard from behind in the pits and later wrecked on the last lap and Martin Truex Jr was involved in numerous incidents before finishing 16th. Three cars in the top 20 is nice, but only Martin had a car good enough to hang with the top cars.

• For the second year, the Wide Open coverage was great. Seeing nearly all of the on-track action was exciting, especially in a race with a lot of great action. What would make it even better is if the announcers would be less, um, Wide Open. For example, Weber mentioned Yeley several times and what a great story that would make if he won the race. It’s true, that would have been a great story, but Weber shouldn’t try to force the story, especially when it obviously wasn’t going to happen. Wally Dallenbach, who I tend to like, could also have a bigger impact by saying less. Yelling over Petty and Weber doesn’t add anything and interrupting with a “Whoa!” when cars are single file, also doesn’t enhance the broadcast. Overall the broadcast matched the tempo of the race and did an exciting night justice.

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This weekend TNT brings back their Wide Open coverage for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. More racing and fewer commercials sounds pretty good. What is even better is a good race at a fun track under the lights and 100 miles shorter than the Daytona 500 in February. It all adds up to one of the best race packages of the season. The Pepsi Coke Zero 400 is almost always an exciting race. Sure there was the monsoon of ought five that pushed the finish past midnight on the west coast, but most races are filled with crashes, daring passes for the lead (the lead!), and heck even some pretty cool one-off paint schemes.

And there’s something else about the plate tracks to like too. It’s the little rivalries at restrictor plate races that add the extra juice. They are four races that have very little bearing on the rest of the season, but teams often take more pride in their plate programs. The current top dogs, Gibbs and Hendrick could offer a great battle this year. So far Toyota, and more specifically Gibbs Racing have dominated the restrictor plate tracks in 2008. One win, four top fives and 57% of all the laps led at Daytona and Talladega. That’s pretty dominant. And that is why I think Hendrick Motorsports will be up to the challenge. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have all won at Daytona and are all very good in the draft. Not all of the cars will be around at the end, but that’s just part of the excitement.

What Happened Last Year

Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin wrecked each other while running 1-2 early in the race. That led to some bickering in the garage. Meanwhile Jamie McMurray edged Kurt and Kyle Busch for his first win since 2002. It was the closest finish in Daytona history (.005 seconds).

Five Drivers Who Like Daytona

Dale Earnhardt Jr won the 2001 Pepsi 400 and the 2004 Daytona 500. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 17 starts.

Tony Stewart has two summer wins and has led 531 laps in ten races. That includes 151 of 160 at the 2005 race. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 19 starts. He also is the only driver with a driver rating above 100 for the last seven Daytona races (108.1)

Jeff Gordon has six wins, most among active drivers. Gordon has recently adopted a “wait and see” approach, which worked at both Talladega events last year and almost paid off again this spring.

Jimmie Johnson has often served as Gordon’s wing man on mad dashes to the front late in races. But Johnson is perfectly capable of winning races himself. He has the highest average running position (9.8) of all drivers over the last seven races, meaning he is always in the lead pack.

Matt Kenseth owns a 92.4 driver rating and has led laps in four of the last five races at Daytona. He has scored 4 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in his career at restrictor plate tracks.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Ryan Newman His Daytona 500 win was not a fluke. Penske has provided strong cars for Daytona and Talladega and Newman and Kurt Busch work well together.

Chump: Carl Edwards Edwards is good in the draft, but has lost his patience at times and that can be costly.

Sleeper: Elliott Sadler When it comes to restrictor plate races, Sadler is excellent at avoiding wrecks, picking the right lane and being around at the end to pick up a nice finish.

Who will win?

Hendrick and Penske cars will surely be strong with a splash of RCR mixed in (watch out for Clint Bowyer). Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are typically strong at Daytona, but Ford is mired in a mini-funk right now. All of these teams will be in the lead pack, but who will win the race? Joe Gibbs. Seriously, take your pick of driver. Denny Hamlin led 32 laps and may have had the best car at the Daytona 500 if not for a pit road accident. Kyle Busch led 86 laps and could, and did, go anywhere he wanted to on the track. Tony Stewart wasn’t as good during the day, but came alive at the end of the race when the sun went down, led 16 laps and finished 3rd. The same pattern held true at Talladega when Hamlin and Stewart seemed able to do whatever they wanted at the front of the pack and Kyle Busch overcame early problems to pop up late and win. Fans of variety, surprise and parity turn away now. Kyle Busch is going to win again. Just because the winner might not be a surprise, the race should be anything but dull.