Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005.

Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr, Reed Sorenson, JJ Yeley, David Stremme, David Gilliland. Total wins: 6

The rookie class of 2006 was labeled as a special group and almost three years later that still holds true, but maybe not to the degree originally expected. The top three drivers of the class all made the 2007 Chase, won Cup races and appear set to compete at the top level for the next decade. The rest are still finding their way.

When Denny Hamlin was given a tryout in the #11 car at the end of 2005, it looked like nothing more than a placeholder while Joe Gibbs Racing could find another driver. Then Hamlin scored three top tens and won a pole in seven races. He smoothly slid into the #11 car on a fulltime basis for 2006 and immediately took off. While some drivers and analysts could see his talent, no one expected him to adjust to the Cup level so smoothly.

Right out of the gate, he won the Bud Shootout holding off teammate Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr, both shrewd plate racers. At this time he hadn’t even won a Busch race prior to his promotion to Cup. He went on to win both Pocono races. On the strength of 4 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s he made the Chase field as a rookie. During the Chase he scored 4 more top 5’s to stay in contention until the latter stages of the Chase. His final numbers were impressive. He finished 3rd in the final standings, had 2 wins, 8 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s and easily won Rookie of the Year.

He followed up in 2007 with another win and a Chase berth. He spent the majority of the first 26 races in 2nd place in the standings and had numerous chances to win races. A disappointing Chase took some of the luster out of the season, but it was still an impressive sophomore season.

So far in 2008 Hamlin has won a race at Martinsville, scored 6 top 5’s and led more laps(696) through 21 races than all of 2005. A Chase spot appears sewn up and thanks to the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing builds the cars Hamlin drives he has a chance to win a Cup title in the coming years.

After winning back to back Busch championships in 2004 and 2005, Martin Truex Jr was more than ready for the Cup circuit. He was widely picked as the favorite for Rookie of the Year and quick success was assumed by almost everyone. So it was a little surprising when Truex struggled to an 19th place finish and failed to compete for wins. He had a few nice results scattered amongst a lot of crashes and poor finishes. His final numbers, 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s fell well short of expectations but by the end of the year he and rookie crew chief Kevin Manion were showing signs of figuring out the Cup game.

In 2007 Truex finally broke through. After he spent the first quarter of the season alternating between top 10 finishes and tough luck crashes, he finally caught a break and won the Nextel Open exhibition race. Two weeks later he cruised to his first Cup win at Dover. That win was one bookend of a hot summer that propelled him to a spot in the Chase. He finished with 1 win, 7 top 5’s and 14 top 10’s. While Truex hasn’t vaulted to stardom his DEI equipment also tends to be subpar. Truex is a solid all around driver and could be a big lure on the free agency market in 2009.

Clint Bowyer didn’t have the hype of Martin Truex Jr or Reed Sorenson or the overnight success of Denny Hamlin, but he did prove his toughness as a Cup rookie. Bowyer jumped out of the gates with a surprising 6th place finish in the Daytona 500. He hung inside the top 20 in points all season and registered a respectable 4 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s. He also hinted at his strength with strong runs at flat, short tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

In 2007 Bowyer continued his ascent and locked down a spot in the Chase. He also won his first career Cup race at Loudon, in dominant fashion. Bowyer finisheda surprising third in the Chase standings and scored a total of 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s. 2008 began well with a win at Richmond and is again in the hunt for a Chase spot. Another trait that has developed in Bowyer’s style is his ability to avoid DNF’s. Aside from 4 his rookie season, Bowyer has finished 100% of the races in the last two seasons. It helps offset his lack of laps at the front of the pack.

As a 19 year old Reed Sorenson was already running a full Busch Series schedule and winning 2 races. After a fourth place points finish, he was quickly promoted to the Cup Series to drive Chip Ganassi’s #41 car for the 2006 season. As expected for a 20 year old rookie, Sorenson’s season was filled with inconsistency. One week would see him crash early and finish in the 40’s and then follow it up with a top ten run. Despite only 1 top 5 and 5 top 10’s, it was clear that the young driver had talent.

Maybe the most surprising thing about Sorenson’s rookie season was that it was his best year to date. 2007 was expected to build on his rookie effort, but that improvement didn’t come. While his peripheral numbers (3 top 5’s, 6 top 10’s) were slightly better, his average finish, DNF’s and laps led were all worse. 2008 has been an even greater struggle. Through 22 races Sorenson sits in 30th place in the points and has mustered only two top 10’s and has ten sub-30 finishes. Despite the struggles, and they are not all Sorenson’s fault, he is still only 22 and talent doesn’t evaporate. Looking back on the class in 5-10 years may still portray a different story for Sorenson.

JJ Yeley had an impressive resume in sprint cars, winning the USAC triple crown. He moved to the Busch Series and then landed a Cup ride with Joe Gibbs Racing thanks in part to a personal recommendation from Tony Stewart. The general scouting report on Yeley was that he was talented but raw. He displayed some of his talent (1 top 5, 6 top 10’s, 1 pole) and a lot of the rawness (28 sub-30’s, 11 DNF’s) in his first two years with Gibbs. When Gibbs had the chance to sign Kyle Busch, Yeley was the obvious cut.

He was still considered a good prospect at the Cup level and signed with Hall of Fame Racing for 2008. Unfortunately Yeley could only manage 1 top 5 in 17 starts, lost his spot in the top 35 and failed to qualify for 4 races. That led to his firing from the #96 car after 22 races.

After several seasons of mild success in the Busch Series, David Stremme got his big break in 2006. Chip Ganassi promoted him to the #40 seat to replace Sterling Marlin. After five races Stremme was sitting on the outside of the top 35. This forced the team to switch to survival mode and simply qualify for races and essentially washed away Stremme’s season. He did manage to return to the top 35, but didn’t score a top ten and finished a disappointing 33rd in the final standings.

2007 brought a fresh start for Stremme and the #40 team. Stremme finished in the top 20 in five of the first six races and included his first Cup top ten. The summer wasn’t as kind and Stremme could only manage three top tens in total and suffered 14 sub 30 finishes. He was released after the season to make way for the incoming Dario Franchitti.

After a chain of events in August of 2006, the Robert Yates #38 car was suddenly vacant. Enter David Gilliland, who was a complete unknown only months earlier. After winning the Kentucky Busch race in an underfunded car Gilliland was suddenly a star in the making. While his truncated rookie season was a series of wrecks and backup cars, Gilliland did have a handful of promising runs. He won the pole at Talladega and finished 15th and then had two other nice runs at Atlanta and Phoenix.

He then won the pole for the Daytona 500 the following spring and scored his first top ten in the process. While Gilliland went on to show some improvement in 2007, it was sometimes hard to tell whether he was struggling as a driver or Yates no longer had the cars to keep up.

In 2008 Gilliland has displayed more progress. He has cut down on the wrecks and has scored ten top 20’s in 22 starts. While it’s doubtful he will become a superstar at the Cup level he looks set to be a solid driver capable of the occasional top 5 or win.

Verdict: Hamlin is already a star while Bowyer and Truex have the potential to challenge for wins and Chase berths. Sorenson’s potential is still there if he can put an ugly 2008 behind him. Yeley, Gilliland and Stremme will probably never be drivers that teams are built around but can certainly make a living shuttling between the Cup and Nationwide series.

How to Piss off a Cup Driver: Part I

Last week Rusty Wallace claimed Ryan Newman was fired by Penske instead of a mutual parting. Newman didn’t appreciate his former teammate/bicker buddy sticking his nose into Newman’s business. Wallace went on to say that Roger Penske didn’t appreciate Newman’s criticisms of the company and the team’s performance.

Let me take this moment to remind Rusty that Penske has been a second tier team for years (prior to Wallace’s retirement) and Newman hasn’t been a front runner since 2004. Whether Newman used the proper platform for his criticisms is one thing, but it’s hard to say the criticisms are misplaced. Tune in next week when Newman will reveal the real reason why Wallace was removed from the ESPN booth.

How to Piss off a Cup Driver: Part II

To the likely bemusement of the Diecast Dude, ESPN.com’s NASCAR crew made someone mad again. This time it was Martin Truex Jr when David Newton tried to report that Truex had signed a new contract with DEI. Truex’s frank, “That’s bullsh*t” response left little room for interpretation that the report was false. Truex added that the two sides were still negotiating. A word of advice to Newton (beyond reporting facts), when Truex gets pissed off, he can be quite literal.

Jimmie and Randy: Homies

As a Vikings fan I was fortunate to see Randy Moss’ greatest seasons so despite his occasional pouting and one bizarre traffic incident, I still have a certain fondness for Moss. He is not a bad guy and can be pretty funny. Take the time he scored the infamous Mooning Touchdown at Green Bay (which has it’s own partially-justified story behind it). He was fined $10,000 by the NFL and when a reporter asked how he paid his fine, Moss simply said, “Straight cash homey.” I still use that line all the time.

Now that Moss is involved with NASCAR I picture him paying all of the team’s bills with straight cash, homey. And that is exactly how I think he convinced Jimmie Johnson to drive Moss’ truck at Bristol.

Off the Beaten Path

On the personal side of this blog, things have been pretty busy. The second Pocono roughly marks the 2 year birthday of Trouble in Turn2. If it lasts another 2 years, I’ll be amazed.

If you are looking for something fresh for your iPod, try Eddie Vedder’s soundtrack for Into the Wild. Most of the songs are only 1 or 2 minutes, but they are really good. If you haven’t seen the movie, that too is excellent. It makes you want to go camping…for a year.

Have a good weekend. I will again be rating the Pocono race versus undesirable home improvement projects. This week it’s installing a dishwasher!

Saturday night’s race at Daytona was a perfect example of why Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are having such great seasons. They have each enjoyed dominant stretches during the season, but their ability to take advantage of other’s mistakes and finish well when they’re at less than their best is why they are both early favorites to win the Championship.

Busch was solid early on when swapping the lead with Dale Earnhardt Jr. But then he somehow lost the steering on the car(a theme for the race) and fell to the last car on the lead lap. Meanwhile Edwards only spent 72 laps in the top 15 and didn’t crack the top ten until lap 92. The only lap he led was when he stayed out under yellow on lap 112, but then went to the back of the pack on the next lap. And then with three laps left Edwards and Busch were suddenly both poised to win the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and even David Gilliland had greater chances at winning, only to see them all slip from a variety of reasons. What Edwards and especially Busch did is exactly what Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson did last year. They didn’t thrash everyone on a weekly basis, but were very opportunistic and finished races when others didn’t. That’s the quality of a top team.

Kyle Busch now has 60 points towards his Chase score. That’s 40 more than Edwards and Kasey Kahne. If other drivers with title ambitions like Earnhardt Jr, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart hope to keep up, they need to rattle off a few wins to close the gap at the start of the Chase.

• Tony Stewart suffered from dehydration and had to have JJ Yeley sub for him midway through the race. The look on Stewart’s face after he exited the car was one of pure exhaustion. Sometimes it’s easy to forget how physically and mentally demanding races can be, especially at restrictor plate where there is no time to relax.
  

  “I thought we were going to be able to (make it) for the first two runs, but once the car got a little bit loose and we had to start really sawing on the wheel, it’s like it zapped the energy out of me and I started making mistakes. It was a situation where I was trying to look out for everybody involved on the race team. I wasn’t doing us any favors by not being 100 percent. It was better to get out as early as we could versus sticking it out with 20 to go and expecting J.J. (Yeley) to get the thing back in the top-five. It’s one of those decisions you have to make early enough, and I knew I wasn’t feeling good and I wasn’t feeling any better and it was getting worse as we were going. Before the race, the nurse said she was going to buy us a couple of hours and we got three hours out of it. We still had to go out there and try.

• Kyle Petty and Bill Weber were trying to name other recent substitute drivers, but never answered their own question. Ricky Rudd subbed for Stewart in 2006 at Dover after Stewart hurt his shoulder at Lowe’s. Petty subbed for Kevin Harvick at Bristol in August 2004 when Harvick’s arm went numb. Dale Earnhardt also required subs at Loudon (Martin Truex) and Pocono (John Andretti) after his fiery accident in a Grand Am event at Infineion in 2004.

• DEI had a mixed bag this weekend. Paul Menard was the surprise pole winner and led the first ten laps. Mark Martin started 2nd and spent the majority of the race in the top ten before finishing 10th. On the other hand Regan Smith hit Menard from behind in the pits and later wrecked on the last lap and Martin Truex Jr was involved in numerous incidents before finishing 16th. Three cars in the top 20 is nice, but only Martin had a car good enough to hang with the top cars.

• For the second year, the Wide Open coverage was great. Seeing nearly all of the on-track action was exciting, especially in a race with a lot of great action. What would make it even better is if the announcers would be less, um, Wide Open. For example, Weber mentioned Yeley several times and what a great story that would make if he won the race. It’s true, that would have been a great story, but Weber shouldn’t try to force the story, especially when it obviously wasn’t going to happen. Wally Dallenbach, who I tend to like, could also have a bigger impact by saying less. Yelling over Petty and Weber doesn’t add anything and interrupting with a “Whoa!” when cars are single file, also doesn’t enhance the broadcast. Overall the broadcast matched the tempo of the race and did an exciting night justice.

For more racing news and opinion, be sure to check out Racing Nation

A brief history of the #40 car. Once upon a time there was a driver named Sterling Marlin. He was hired to drive a racecar full time for Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates Racing (This was before they changed their name to Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates Mostly Riding Around). And he drove quite well. He won 2 races in 2001 and 2002. He finished 3rd in the points in ‘01 and was even leading the point standings for most of ‘02. He drove the #40 Coors Light car, which at the time was the organization’s flagship team. Unfortunately his 2002 was ended early by a wreck at Kansas.

The years went by and while Marlin was not quite the same, he still was a solid driver, holding his own at most tracks and running quite well at others. Despite his serious injury, he was still a top 20 driver and managed to keep the #40 car there as well.

One day in 2005 Felix Sabates came along and asked Marlin to stop driving the #40 Cup car. He explained that Coors Light didn’t believe old people drank beer anymore. Since Sterling was old, he could no longer identify with this bourgeoisie of beer drinkers. A fresh, young driver named Daivd Stremme would be the one that the public would look to when thirsty. Sabates also offered Marlin the chance to “hang out”, run some Busch races (note: at that time old people still drank Busch beer) and collect a six-figure check. Marlin was so blown away by Sabates’ offer that he joined MB2 sports and drove fulltime in the Cup series in 2006 and 2007 (based on reports he made much more than six figures).

So Marlin moved on, away from the #40 car that had reaped so much success for himself and Ganassi. Meanwhile Stremme and Ganassi struggled. They fell outside the top 35, and it took Stremme 40 races to score a top ten.

After 2007, Coors Light decided that no matter how young or cool their driver was, it was hard to peddle beer while finishing 25th. Then this year was the final blow. IRL star Dario Franchitti came in and struggled more than Stremme. The #40 car’s windows were boarded up and cobwebs will soon decorate the rest of the car. And if you listen carefully you can hear the faint sound of laughter, belonging of course to Marlin.

Other Notes.

• Aric Almirola will drive the #8 car for DEI next year. Almirola is definitely talented and, depending on Martin Truex’s 2009 status, becomes DEI’s #1 or #2 driver. He’s certainly more talented than Regan Smith and Paul Menard. What I can’t figure out is why Almirola hasn’t been entered into any Nationwide races this year? Even if the cost is too much for DEI to bear, there has to be another Nationwide team they could farm him out to for seat time. That would be like the Yankees telling Joba Chamberlain, “We think you will be our #1 starting pitcher in 2009. To prepare for this high profile role, we will have you sporadically start 10 times this year. The rest of the time we’d like you to pitch batting practice and have bullpen sessions.”

  NASCAR will surely tout it as a victory for diversity, but I prefer to look at it as a good young driver who has paid his dues in the lower ranks including the Truck series that earned his chance. Whether that chance was accelerated by the Drive for Diversity program, I don’t fully know.

• Speaking of DEI, NASCAR impounded the #1 car of Martin Truex Jr. Since it’s a new DEI car, it came with all the latest DEI technology. Technology like a radar for where 17th place is on the track, an in-car #3 diecast retail store, and a gas pedal that wouldn’t go all the way to the floor. Reports that Truex wanted to drive one of Haas-CNC or Penske’s backup cars are completely false as well.

• I saw Baby Mama last weekend at the cheap theater. I’m a big fan of Amy Poehler and for three dollars it was defintely worth watching. If you are a fan of 30 Rock, you should enjoy this movie too. Tina Fey plays essentially her same role as Liz Lemon on 30 Rock: mostly serious, having to clean up others’ mistakes but also free to stray into comedy as well. That allowed Poehler , who I think is one of the funniest female actors around, to shine as the white trash surrogate. If you’re looking for a night to mentally unplug, it’s a good choice.

NASCAR’s Silly Season is kind of like a big game of Jenga. The year begins with everything in a solid block but then slowly a piece gets pulled from the bottom and moved to the top. After a while a lot of holes appear, the formation begins to sway until all it takes is removing one more piece and every block in the structure is affected. Right now the entire Jenga puzzle is teetering on a few major moves, none more important than what Tony Stewart decides to do in 2009. Once that decision is announced (my guess it’s already been made) the aftershock will affect at least 10 drivers.

Last year the pieces were more sequential. Dale Earnhardt Jr, clearly the top free agent in NASCAR, made his decision, then Kyle Busch moved to Gibbs, Mark Martin slid into the #8 car and JJ Yeley moved to Hall of Fame Racing. It was more like a draft where you took the best player left on the board. This year is much more complex because drivers are looking for slightly different things. Stewart does not need to upgrade, he’s already with the top Cup team. He is looking for a place with ownership possibilities. Mark Martin is rumored to be looking for one more shot a the title belt. Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman are looking for the best long term shot at winning races and championships. There is at least one new team, Richard Childress’ 4th team that should attract a top driver. This variety of goals makes it muddier than last year.

It really looks like Stewart is going to leave Gibbs Racing, which automatically opens up one of the elite rides in the sport. Unless Stewart goes to RCR’s 4th ride, he will take someone else’s job. If he becomes an owner, that could affect the other drivers in that company as well. Would he be able to attract other high profile free agent drivers to his new company? A lot depends on where Stewart goes. If he decides to take the best ride available, he would probably head to Hendrick Motorsports’ #5 car. Based on rumors, that would throw a wrench in Martin’s plans for a full time run in 2009 with Hendrick.

Whatever happens, Casey Mears is out of the #5 car. It looks like it’s true and isn’t a big surprise. Like his old teammate Jamie McMurray discovered when he joined Roush-Fenway, an upgrade to elite equipment doesn’t necessarily mean an upgrade in success. Mears had his best Cup season in 2007, but it simply is not good enough for what the Hendrick cars are capable of. Now, ironically, it looks like Mears will be competing with McMurray for the whatever second-tier options are available.

If Martin exits DEI, that leaves a huge void. Will the Army be willing to re-sign with DEI knowing that Aric Almirola can’t match Martin’s on-track success, merchandise sales or visibility? Martin Truex Jr is not signed and appears willing to see what else is available. If he leaves, then DEI would take a very big dive. Sure Paul Menard, Almirola and Smith are young, but that doesn’t equate to immense talent or success. DEI is also already struggling to fully sponsor four teams, and that’s including Menard’s essentially personal sponsorship. What happens if Army and Truex leave? It’s hard to see Bass Pro Shops wanting to hang around either.

If Martin is indeed planning on a one year run for the title that means the #5 car would then have another new driver in 2010 (likely Brad Keselowski or Landon Cassill). That’s four different drivers in four years. Is Hendrick willing to do that? Is a longtime sponsor like Kelloggs willing to do that? Would Martin really have a serious shot at a title run?

There will be a lot more people, sponsors and teams affected by what happens in the next two months. It’s a good thing this post isn’t printed on real paper because by next week when everything I just wrote proves false you would have to rip it up anyway.

Other Thoughts off the beaten path

The Euro 2008 tourney wraps up on Sunday. Germany plays Spain. Overall the tournament has been fantastic. Games have had dramatic late goals, great individual skill and a welcome absence of boring, defensive soccer. The final should be another good game and with the potential for rain in New England, do yourself a favor and work the “previous channel” button on your remote.

I haven’t seen any movies lately (it’s too nice outside), but I have taken a peak at the summer movies. Here’s a few recommendations.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

Now that Dale Earnhardt Jr has scored his breakthrough win for 2008, who is the next driver to win for the first time this year? Nine different drivers have already won at least one race this year, but there are still a lot of big names looking to kick in the door to Victory Lane. Here’s a list of candidates in order of likeliness.

Aside from crazy circumstances, a team finding something revolutionary, or a road course ringer, I can’t see any other drivers challenging for wins this year. Anyone else you see winning this year?

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.

• Cue the Duck Aflac announced they will sponsor Carl Edwards in 2009. Supplemental insurance is extremely important when you break your neck doing a backflip and can’t work. Is something like that covered? I am already predicting a commercial with Edwards and the duck doing flips after a win. Either that or Edwards can take a fake swing at the duck. As part of the contract, the answer to all Aflac trivia questions is now “Carl Edwards”. The deal is also apparently the second richest sponsorship deal behind Amp and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Of course Earnhardt Jr’s deal with Amp is essentially for co-sponsorship, as the #88 hauls in additional cash from the National Guard.

• Bruton Smith bought another track, this time Kentucky Speedway. It’s a good pickup, but with Tony George owning Indiana Avenue and ISC/France Family owning Illinois Avenue, it will be very hard to get the Red Monopoly and build hotels. Since he already owns North Carolina Ave, I would have made a play for Pennsylvania Ave now and Pacific (Northwest) Ave later.

• Tom Bowles of SI.com has an interesting take on Michael Waltrip Racing.
  

  It’s no secret the driver mortgaged his financial future to move ahead with this program and that he took on an investor (Robert Kauffman) in October to salvage the team’s long-term future. But if all three sponsors bail — this is the final year of NAPA’s agreement with the No. 55 — all the investment money in the world won’t keep this program on track. And with a tough economy making sponsorship difficult, this could be the biggest-level program that winds up biting the dust.

  I guess Napa can only make so many self-deprecating commercials about how bad Waltrip runs. I don’t have the inside scoop that Bowles does, but I was surprised by this. Given SI’s credibility, I have to believe there’s some truth, but my guess is that if MWR can keep all three cars inside the top 35 Waltrip can make it work to stay in business.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr had a few interesting comments on the future of JR Motorsports. He’s considering moving his Nationwide team to Cup in 2009. If NASCAR’s second-tier series is just as costly to operate that’s a serious problem for all parties.

  He also had this to say about Martin Truex Jr:
  

  “Why would he want to come drive for me?” Earnhardt Jr. asked. “He’s in good stuff now and he’s going to have great opportunities from other people. And I would never do that to him.”

  To me, that’s a subtle way of saying DEI should be looking for a driver for 2009. Junior was clear that he wouldn’t hire Truex, but if you look at the link to the story it’s titled “Friends don’t let friends drive junk”. That could be interpreted as not hiring Truex for a startup Cup team, or implying that something is already brewing with another top Cup team.

• Just four races after a crew chief shuffle at Ganassi Racing, there is another one this week. Prior to Talladega Jimmy Elledge moved from the #41 car to Juan Pablo Montoya’s #42 team. Now Elledge has left Ganassi and Montoya is not happy. Elledge is pretty well regarded in Cup and will turn up somewhere if he hasn’t already struck a deal. One place that makes sense is JR Motorsports, since Elledge is Earnhardt Jr’s brother-in-law, although that might be too much family even for JRM.

  Meanwhile Brian Pattie moves from the Ganassi Nationwide team to head up the #42 crew. Montoya has one top ten (2nd at Talladega) while Ganassi as an organization only has two all season. Obviously things are not going well at Acronym Racing (That’s CGRwFS for the uninitiated) and Ganassi has already ripped his organization once this year. Instead of shuffling around internal crew chiefs among the teams, it might be time to look outside the organization for a different perspective.

Off the Beaten Path

A chance for me to discuss whatever else is on my mind this week. Hey, if Peter King can write about his lattes every week…

• I don’t get very political, especially in this space, but it’s inescapable right now. I saw a report that the presidential candidates have raised over $900 million dollars. It’s mind boggling and we’re not even to the official presidential race. Worse, the entire point of donating money to a candidate is for them to burn through it. With so many problems in this country and abroad, imagine how many causes a billion dollars could go to.

• I saw Zodiac last weekend. A pretty good thriller/mystery with a lot of good actors too. It’s based on the true story of the Zodiac serial killer in California and focuses on the investigation. Jake Gyllenhal and Mark Ruffalo are both really good. My one complaint was that the movie ended with a postscript. I have a TV that’s at least ten years old and I couldn’t read what it said. Even if I wanted to throw in a spoiler here, I couldn’t.

• Have a great and safe weekend and be sure to get plenty of rest on Saturday night. We’ll all need it on Sunday afternoon.

After the tire debacle at Atlanta, things can only be better at Texas right? As the tour returns to a high-speed 1.5 mile track, questions remain about the tires. There is a lot of pressure on Goodyear to find a softer, more competitive tire while at the same time retaining the safety. Public opinion wasn’t helped when NASCAR declined Texas Motorspeedway president Eddie Gossage’s invitation for an additional tire test. If things aren’t improved at Texas, it would be embarrassing for NASCAR and Goodyear.

Hopefully that’s the last mention of tires this weekend, so let’s move on to the race itself. In its short history, Texas Motorspeedway has certainly had a rich story. A lap one wreck took out a fourth of the field in the first race. Weepers (and you thought it was a new term at California). Threatened Lawsuits. Jackmen attacking drivers. And that’s only over fourteen races and eleven years of existence.

The Entry List

• Mark Martin returns to the #8 car after his spring break. No he wasn’t at Senor Frogs (although I haven’t verified that).
• Kyle Petty is replaced in the #45 car by Chad McCumbee. More on the Petty situation tomorrow.
• Ken Schrader and Emeril Racing (BAM!) said, “Sike! We’re not going to enter Texas.”
• Schrader might not go racing at Texas, but Burney Lamar is. So to the fans yearning for Burney, be sure to catch Friday’s practice session because making the race is a long shot.

Last Year’s Race

Jeff Burton led the final two laps after a tough battle with Matt Kenseth to nab his only win of 2007. However, as is often the case, the big talk that Monday morning was not about the winner. The wreck involving Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Busch while they slowed for a caution grabbed the headlines. Busch left so Earnhardt stuck around and drove the #5 car for a few laps. I still believe this was unrelated to the later events that saw Earnhardt replace Busch at Hendrick, but it was all anyone wanted to talk about during the week. Both drivers have obviously adaptied to the changes well.

Who runs well?

• Tony Stewart-Won the 2006 fall race and has the best driver rating (109.3) over the last six Texas races.
• Matt Kenseth-He has led 374 laps at Texas and has led at least one lap in 9 of the last 10 races.
• Denny Hamlin-He has four top tens in five career starts. It could have been five for five. He was leading the race last fall when he got loose racing Kenseth too hard and hit the wall.
• Martin Truex Jr-Won the fall 2007 pole and has a 95.7 driver rating in five career starts. So far this year he has not been near the front like the way he ended 2007.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr-He got his first career Cup win at Texas in 2000 and also has seven top tens in 11 tries. I’ll bet anyone a billion dollars that win gets mentioned on Sunday along with some kind of parallel to his first win with Hendrick Motorsports if he is leading at any point in the race.

Fantasy Picks

Champs
Kurt Busch has done almost everything but win at Texas. That includes wrecking former teammate Greg Biffle two years ago that incited a near catfight between the significant others. When he stays on the track the #2 team has had several strong runs only to unravel in the pits.

Chumps
This week the Chumps list is extremely difficult to interpret. Eight of the top 11 Texas driver ratings belong to drivers in this category. Three others, Kasey Kahne Ryan Newman and Jeff Burton have won at Texas. The other two on the list, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick, have had good runs at other intermediate tracks this year. Since his win at Daytona, Newman has one top ten (California).

Sleepers
Casey Mears really likes Texas. In eight career races he has 2 top fives and four top tens. Both numbers are tops for Mears at any track. Racing luck and misfortune have hindered his point standing so far this year, but the cars have been pretty good.

Who will win? Tony Stewart has watched his teammates win two of the last three races. Now it’s his turn. Wouldn’t it be great if he peeled off his firesuit and he had a message waxed in his back hair? Something like “Suck it Goodyear”. [I’m the only one?]