Trouble in Turn2

One of the first topics to come up when a Cup race at Michigan is mentioned is fuel mileage. That is something that usually sets Michigan apart, but this year has already featured four such finishes including the June Michigan race. What is it about Michigan that lends itself to fuel mileage races? I suspect it has to do with a lack of cautions thanks to a wider racing surface plus the ability to pass without incident. It doesn’t explain everything, but it will be a factor come Sunday.

What Happened Last Year

Rain happened. A lot of rain that delayed the race for two days. When the track finally dried on Tuesday morning Kurt Busch was the dominant car, leading 92 laps and winning his second race in three weeks. To be honest, it was a rather uneventful race which seems to fit the mold of rain delayed races. Everyone usually wants to get it over with, pack up and go home.

Notes

• Only 44 cars are on the Michigan entry list. Quick quiz: When was the last time a race only had 43 cars entered? Hint: It’s probably more recent than you think. Last year’s Daytona 500 featured a 61 car entry list. Now the number of willing participants has dwindled to 44. Granted Michigan is longer trip from Charlotte, but the bottom rung teams are really struggling to afford cars each week. [2004 at Rockingham was the last Cup race to feature only 43 entrants, while the 2002 Loudon race was the last with a short field].

• Tony Stewart is entered in this weekend’s Nationwide race and he will sport a special paint scheme publicizing the “Give the Kids the Wolrd view-A-Thon”.
  

  the #20 Old Spice Car will have a new look as it races to help special children from around the world. Give Kids The World, the nonprofit organization that provides week-long, cost-free vacations to Central Florida for children with life-threatening illnesses and their families, will be honored with its very own “Give Kids The World Village” design. The brightly colored car was designed by Wish child Emily Marsala and will be driven by Joe Gibbs Racing driver Tony Stewart.

  In celebration of this unique partnership, Give Kids The World is encouraging NASCAR fans everywhere to participate in a View-A-Thon to help us raise $25,000, or $100 for every mile of the race.

  

• Brad Coleman will make his Cup debut on Sunday, when he takes the wheel for Hall of Fame Racing’s #96 car. Coleman is only 20 and is a legitimate prospect. He will need to qualify on time, but given his solid Busch/Nationwide qualifying record (16.7 avg start) he shouldn’t have a problem. It will be interesting to see whether he can improve on JJ Yeley’s numbers for 2008. While Yeley definitely struggled this year, I don’t think it was all his fault. The team could probably use some veteran feedback to set a workable baseline. You know, someone like Mike Skinner. Unfortunately for HoF Racing, Toyota’s official/unofficial consultant is already booked this weekend for Michael Waltrip Racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is inching closer to winning and there won’t be a better chance than at the track that Roush owns (not in the literal sense like Roger Penske formerly did, but in the Jimmie Johnson, My House! sense).

Chump: Kyle Busch Yeah I said it! He wasn’t great at Indy and was decent at Pocono. I think he’s due for a crash this weekend.

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin is phenomenal at Michigan: 4 wins, 16 top 5’s and 27 top 10’s. He also has an 81.3 driver rating in the past seven events and that includes two cool Batman paint schemes.

Who Will Win?

Matt Kenseth. I don’t need to explain why. He’s due, he’s good at Michigan and Roush cars always win at least once at Michigan. Plus I want to see more robot commercials.

In the last four races dating back to Sonoma we have seen Kyle Busch in a nutshell. He has won three races at three completely different tracks and also thrown in a nice scuffle at Loudon for good measure. Since his crash at Pocono (and the accompanying nonsense about his lack of focus) he has seen his lead grow from 21 points to 262. If the Chase started today he would have a 50 point lead over Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

After Kyle Busch’s first win of the season at Atlanta, I compared his fourth Cup season (at age 23) to that of Jeff Gordon’s 1995 season. In that season, Gordon’s 3rd in Cup (age 23), he won 7 races, had 17 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s, and won his first of four championships. At the time it seemed like a fair comparison. Through three years, Busch’s numbers were very similar to Gordon’s at the same age. Of course, thanks to Busch’s last four races, he is on a completely different plane. Busch is beginning to look like the Jeff Gordon of 1996-1998 when he won 10, 10 and 13 races respectively.

It’s undeniable that Busch is having a great season, but let’s hold off with the “Legendary” labels for now. The 2007 New England Patriots could speak intelligently on the subject. While some fans still feel the Chase is contrived, it’s one more challenge that Busch and any other driver has conquer. Of course Busch is doing everything he can in the regular season to gain the NASCAR equivalent of home field advantage throughout the playoffs by racing up as many bonus points as possible. Even if his 50 point lead holds up or grows, he will still face serious competition during the final ten races. Remember, 50 points is the difference between 1st and 8th place. Carl Edwards is stout on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks that litter the Chase schedule. Dale Earnhardt has run in the top 5 for the entire season and Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into to form (he will win at least one to two more races before the Chase starts). Even teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have the tools to challenge Busch for the title during the final stretch. Go ahead and pile the compliments on Kyle Busch’s plate right now, he’s had a dream season to this point. But be careful to assume that Busch will win continue winning races at this pace or that the Chase is only a formality.

• Last week I questioned the need for more night races, but Chicago was a good show. It was a lot tougher to pass at Chicago than some of the similar tracks earlier this year and drivers really had to work for several laps to set up passes. Whether that is from the cooler night temperatures, Goodyear’s improved tires, the quality of the Chicago or a combination of factors, it was a good race to watch. The incredible sunset was a nice touch too.

• Speaking of tough to pass, is there a driver that is tougher to pass than Matt Kenseth? He is so adept at finding the line where another driver wants to be and making it really difficult for other drivers. It’s nothing illegal or cheap but it’s his signature move. Other drivers try it, but no one is able to hold on for so many laps with an inferior car to the one attempting to pass.

• TNT took a commercial break while the race was under green with 17 laps left. In a race that featured a lot of tight racing and had just featured a late pass for the lead, TNT should have stayed with the final 20 laps until either the finish or a caution flag. I realize how difficult it is to time commercials and balance the coverage with paying bills, but it seemed like a poor decision. What happens if Johnson cuts a tire, or Kyle Busch wrecks trying to run Johnson down? It created a situation where a race-altering move could have been missed in the final laps of the race.

• Kevin Harvick scored his first top 5 since Richmond nine races ago. The 3rd place finish allowed him to jump 4 spots in the standings to 9th. Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer’s tailspin continued. After his win at Richmond, Bowyer sat in 4th place in the points and had scored 7 straight top tens. He now sits in 13th and only has two top tens in the last nine. The reason for Bowyer’s slide? In the first quarter of the season he ran in the top ten and top 15 avoided trouble to maximize his finishes. Now Bowyer is still running in the top 15 but has not been able to improve his position. His driver rating (79.7) is 17th best. If Bowyer hopes to make the Chase, that number will have to improve.

• Barring major catastrophe the top 5 drivers are pretty well locked into the Chase. Starting with Jeff Gordon in 6th place and back to 15th place David Ragan, there is only a 200 point gap. A lot could happen between now and Richmond to shuffle the bottom half of the Chase field.

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The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

Now that Dale Earnhardt Jr has scored his breakthrough win for 2008, who is the next driver to win for the first time this year? Nine different drivers have already won at least one race this year, but there are still a lot of big names looking to kick in the door to Victory Lane. Here’s a list of candidates in order of likeliness.

Aside from crazy circumstances, a team finding something revolutionary, or a road course ringer, I can’t see any other drivers challenging for wins this year. Anyone else you see winning this year?

Finally.

Dale Earnhardt Jr returned to Victory Lane in a Cup race. The last time Dale Earnhardt Jr won a Cup points race, Bill Clinton was in office. Or at least some people made it seem like it had been that long. The way Junior’s 2008 has gone, he could actually have multiple wins by now. He’s been a top five car nearly every week. It also doesn’t matter that he won on fuel mileage. They all count. The whole object of a race is to get to the front at the right time. Part of the reason the #88 team could gamble on fuel was their position in the standings. In prior seasons Earnhardt Jr has been near the bottom of the Chase standings and couldn’t afford a 25th place finish. With their 3rd place position it opens up more opportunities to take risks, which is exactly how they won on Sunday. Compare that with some of the other teams fighting for a Chase spot like Kevin Harvick, David Ragan and Jamie McMurray that were forced to pit under the final caution.

Not everyone is an Earnhardt Jr fan, but my guess is that the majority of NASCAR fans can appreciate Jr’s win and feel good about it. Put aside the fact that he’s the most popular driver in NASCAR, consider how hard it is to win Cup races. Now look at a few of the races where he’s come tantalizingly close to winning. He’s been wrecked while leading (Talladega 2006, Richmond 2008), had engine failures while running in the top 3 (Indianapolis, Richmond 2007), and been on the other side of the fuel mileage game (Charlotte 2007). It was a deserved, and popular, win.

• Tony Stewart is donating his winnings from Sunday’s race to the Red Cross and specifically the Indiana flood relief. Stewart spent most of the day in the top ten before coming home fifth. That’s a nice $136, 986 check for those in need.

  “I’m happy we got a top-five for everyone in Columbus, Indiana, and that we can do something to help our community out,” Stewart said. “It’s been on my mind all weekend. That’s what this top-five is for. When it’s your own community and your own neighbors, it’s good to generate a good amount of winnings for them.”

  The finish was also Stewart’s first top ten since a 4th place run at Richmond last month.

• I tried the Race Buddy, which is great. You can toggle between different camera views like Pit Road, In-Car, On Track Battles or four angles at once. It’s a poor man’s Hot Pass. The one downside, as my wife pointed out, is that there is no Bill Weber to complain about.

• Matt Kenseth continued his rebound with a 3rd place finish after leading 41 laps. It could have been better if not for his pit road incident with a track official. As Kenseth was leaving his pit, he had to brake when the official was still in front of his car for some reason. It cost him spots on the track that he never made up. Kenseth’s teammate Greg Biffle also had a costly pit road incident. The team was changing two tires but Biffle took off before the front tire changer could clear the car and was almost hit. Unfortunately the move also was a penalty because the air gun was left on the wrong side of the car. It was another top five run for Biffle, spoiled by a team mistake.

• Red Bull Racing’s intermediate program is really coming alive. Not only did Brian Vickers have one of the strongest cars in the race but AJ Allmendinger was also strong (79.7 driver rating) before getting shuffled back at the end. The team is still growing and needs improvement on the shorter tracks, but is one of the big stories of the last month. Now Allmendinger heads to Sonoma with a very good chance of scoring his first top ten finish.

• Kyle Petty noted how many races have come down to pit strategy with the new car. That’s true, but I think it has less to do with the car itself and more from the timing of the cautions. With track position at an even greater premium and crew chiefs unsure how even the best car will handle in traffic, getting to the front is now paramount.

• The win was Chevy’s first at Michigan since 2001.

• 18 different drivers have won Cup races since Earnhardt Jr’s last Cup win in 2006.

• The race lasted 2 hours 47 minutes. Last week’s race at Pocono last 4 hours.


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I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

I just finished watching Days of Thunder, and despite knowing almost everything that would happen, I still found it more enteraining than Sunday’s Best Buy 400 at Dover. Officially the race had 17 green flag lead changes. In reality it was a three car race with most lead changes (9) only occurring during green flag pit stops. Essentially Kyle Busch’s pit crew beat Carl Edwards’ and Greg Biffle’s. By lap 160 Jeff Gordon made his way into fifth place and the top five never changed again. One point to make was that the lack of excitement didn’t have very much to do with the lack of lead lap cars, it was simply a race with long green flag runs and not much passing. There were times when cars would ride nose to tail for 20 or 30 laps with neither able to pull away. Busch summed up the lack of excitement this way,

“It wasn’t I guess all that exciting. You know, that’s a product of what we’ve got going on here. We’re working on trying to make our cars go as fast as they can. The faster we make them go, the more aero-dependent they’re going to be. The more you put out on the racetrack, the more the air is going to get screwed up. You know, we’re all fighting for space. We’re all fighting for air. We’re all fighting for everything. Sorry it wasn’t exciting.”

It’s not Busch’s fault the race was boring, nor is it the teams’ fault. With the CoT still in its infancy, there will continue to be snoozers like we saw at Dover. It’s not pretty to watch, but expect more of the same as teams, Goodyear and NASCAR all get a grasp on the car.

The one nugget of excitement came on lap 19 when several top cars collected after Elliott Sadler and David Gilliland made contact. First Tony Stewart, then Denny Hamlin and finally Bill Elliott and Scott Riggs all took turns diving on the hog pile in turn 2. As you might expect, the reactions were varied. First Stewart:

“I take 100% responsibility — it’s my fault for being even anywhere close to Elliott (Sadler). If I’m within a half a lap of him, I expect that to happen. It’s my fault — I’m the one that hit him. When I hit him it caused all the guys behind us to wreck. So it’s my fault.”

Obviously there is still some residual ill-will from Stewart for the wreck at Darlington. Stewart has had wrecks in three of the last five races, and last week had a win snuffed out by a flat tire. Common sense says Stewart will rebound during the summer months, but he had similar problems in 2006 and failed to make the Chase. It’s definitely something to watch.

Meanwhile teammate Denny Hamlin received a lot of heat for plowing into the wreck late. It did appear that other drivers managed to slow down in less time than Hamlin, but Elliott and Riggs were even further behind Hamlin and still couldn’t stop in time.

“It’s so tight off of turn two right there. I feel bad for Elliott (Sadler). I came piling in there way late. I had the 43 (Bobby Labonte) right on my bumper trying not to get hit from him. When I heard wreck off turn two I immediately was on the brakes. It’s just these cars don’t stop as well as they had in the past. Luckily, I wasn’t the last one. It looked like guys even behind me piled in there. It’s just part of the race track.”

While I find it a little easy to blame the track and the heavier car, something obviously caused problems for numerous cars in the accident. After his incident last weekend in the Nationwide race, Hamlin is probably not a popular driver with many fans, but it’s not really fair either.

Other Notes

Nice runs by Dave Blaney, Travis Kvapil and Juan Pablo Montoya. All scored top 12’s. Meanwhile Sam Hornish Jr finished 19th to return to the top 35. The finish was his second top 20 and moved him all the way to 33rd in the owners standings. Meanwhile thanks to a steep 150 point penalty earlier this week and a bad wreck on Sunday, Scott Riggs and the #66 car fell outside the top 35. With the other Haas car missing another race, things are getting tough in a hurry for Haas-CNC.

Fox did a good job this year with their NASCAR coverage (although I could have passed on the letter grades feature today). Now it’s on to TNT. At least Kyle Petty will keep things fresh.

I always used to refer to Dover’s track as Bristol on Steroids. Of course now that is probably cause for a congressional hearing and it would only drag Miles the Monster through the mud. Dover is an exciting track because it’s made of concrete, tough to pass and drivers can get frustrated. One of my favorite finishes of any race in recent years was the duel between Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth. Burton was on fresh tires but Kenseth made it impossible to pass until the very end. Not only is Dover a track that’s enhanced beyond normal tracks, but so is the name of the race: Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks.

What Happened Last Year

Rain pushed the race to Monday morning and Martin Truex Jr led 216 laps to score his first career Cup win. Unforutnately for Truex, the win was overshadowed by two other events. Kurt Busch was parked after confronting Tony Stewart in the pits and nearly hitting a crew member. Did I mention he was still in his car?

The race also ended on a sad tone when it was announced that Bill France Jr had passed away.

Five Drivers who love Dover

Ryan Newman has 4 poles, 3 wins, 6 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s in 12 career starts. He was a top two car almost the entire race last spring, but unfortunately Martin Truex Jr was simply dominant.

Jimmie Johnson 3 wins, 4 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in his career at Dover. Johnson almost ran down Truex in last spring’s race but suffered a flat tire in the final green flag run.

Matt Kenseth 1 win in 2006 and 5 top 5’s to boot. Kenseth has led 549 laps since 2004.

Kyle Busch For people that are tired of seeing Shrub run up front and threaten for wins, they might want to turn away. He owns the 5th best driver rating at Dover, 101.5. He has 4 top 5’s in six career starts and probably would have had a fifth top 5 if not for an engine failure at the fall 2006 race.

Greg Biffle won the 2005 spring race. In the last six Dover races he has the highest average driver rating (113.7) among all Cup drivers. He also has 3 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 11 career races. Biffle tends to excel at the tight, challenging tracks like Darlington and Dover.

One driver who doesn’t

It’s not that Tony Stewart doesn’t like Dover–he’s won two races– but lately he hasn’t had a lot of fun. In 2006 he had to drive with a broken shoulder blade before getting replaced by Ricky Rudd. Last spring he was headed for a top ten finish when he got together with Kurt Busch and both cars wrecked. That of course set off Busch who used his car to confront Stewart and his crew in the pits. In the last six races Stewart has a 67.7 driver rating, which is almost unheard of for a driver like Smoke.

Other Notes

• Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other team. The last HMS driver to win was Jimmie Johnson in 2005 when they used a tricked-out, although technically legal, shock package. And by technically legal, I mean that NASCAR outlawed the package immediately after the race.

• Mark Martin has led more laps (1799) at Dover than the total number of laps run of 16 drivers on the entry list. That shows two things. There are a lot of drivers with less than three Cup seasons of experience, and two, Mark Martin is awesome.

• The date sneaked up on us, but Sunday is Fox’s final broadcast for 2008. Aside from the Digger nonsense, it has been an outstanding run for the Fox crew. The ball gets passed to TNT for Pocono. Take that for what it’s worth.

• Joey Logano! Joey Logano! Mark Martin has been touting Logano as Cup ready since 2005. Even with Martin’s solid recommendation, the expectations and hype surrounding Logano are nothing short of outrageous (name another Busch East driver that has their own diecasts for sale). Logano’s much anticipated NASCAR Nationwide debut happens this Saturday, and for those that haven’t heard of him, he’s like NASCAR’s answer to LeBron James. Except that LeBron looked like he was a 29 year old linebacker when he entered the NBA at the age of 18. So far in his young driving career Logano has won in almost every series, but the Nationwide series is his biggest challenge yet. The trouble is I think some people will expect him to have immediate success and if he doesn’t, might label him a bust faster than you can say Casey Atwood. We all need to settle down, he hasn’t even made a Cup driver like Denny Hamlin mad yet.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth If Kenseth is going to rebound this season, he’d better start now. His record at Dover is excellent in recent years.

Chump: Kevin Harvick: It’s doubtful that Harvick will finish in the 30’s, but it’s equally doubtful that he’ll finish in the top ten.

Sleeper: Mark Martin: His record speaks for itself (4 wins, 20 top 5’s, 27 top 10’s). Plus, wouldn’t it be funny to see Martin pose in Victory Lane with Miles the Monster?

Who Will Win?

Kyle Busch is really, really good at Dover. I thought about Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, but something is off with Roush lately. Biffle’s pit crew isn’t reliable enough at this point. Dale Earnhardt Jr has shown he can run in the top 5 and lead laps in any and every race, but he is hit or miss at Dover. Right now it’s Shrub’s world.