Trouble in Turn2

It’s been a few weeks since I have done a roundup of the news stories in NASCAR. Apoligies for some of these nuggets being a little old, but it’s a slow news week anyway.

• DEI is reportedly looking for an investor. Apparently after saying no thanks to Dale Earnhardt Jr, Teresa Earnhardt is now looking for an investor in the company. It’s a sign of the times with more and more teams seeking additional capital to combat rising operating costs. It also makes you wonder whether the acquisition of Ginn Racing last year was a wise move. The good news is that I forwarded an email from a Nigerian friend to Teresa that should take care of the companies money worries.

• JJ Yeley and the #96 ran into some trouble last weekend for exchanging water bottles prior to the race. If there is one thing that is detrimental to stock car racing I would point my finger directly at water bottle infractions. It’s gone on for too long. Apparently there was some question about whether the team was attempting some funny business with weight in the water bottle during the inspection process. Filling the water bottle with something heavy during inspection and then swapping it out with a lighter material would allow the car to go faster. Instead of running in the 30’s like normal, they figured they could at least run 24th.

• Earlier this week Ryan Newman notified his boss, Roger Penske, that he would not be back next year. According to reports, Newman began his speech very well. His first sentence was fast, concise and well delivered. Unfortunately he meandered after the first sentence and it caused the entire speech to be less than impressive.

  Newman will be a free agent, for about a week. Then he will likely announce he is joining Stewart-Haas. Lost in some of the talk about how Stewart will do without Greg Zipadelli is that Haas does have a few good crew chiefs in house. Bootie Barker and Matt Borland are both good crew chiefs with engineering backgrounds. It was with Borland that Newman won 13 of his 14 career races. Barker is also a highly regarded crew chief in the garage and while Stewart will probably hire someone else for his team, Barker is far from the worst Plan B.

• GM is reining back their manufacturer support of NASCAR teams as part of a plan to cut $10 billion in spending for the company. It’s not surprising and is simple economics. Sadly some yahoos fans will still blame Toyota for running domestic manufacturers from the sport. Toyota shouldn’t apologize for being profitable, and if they decide to spend their money in NASCAR when others can’t afford to, that too is their prerogative. While the announcement is bad news, it will not signal the demise of Chevy in the sport.

• The weekly Nationwide recap finds Kyle Busch living a charmed life as he discusses the Gibbs domination of the series:
  

  It’s everything, you know, you can make an engine look exceptional if you’ve got a car that goes through the corner as well as it does, and I blew by a lot of guys in the corners, not necessarily just down the straightaway tonight. So you know we’ve got good bodies, we’ve got great chassis, and you know we’ve got front-end stuff that’s working well, we’ve got rear-end springs and stuff that just works and track bar height – mean it’s everything, it’s a whole package, and that’s what you’ve got to have in these series in order to run well. You’ve gotta have the whole package.

  You can listen to audio of this interview plus Denny Hamlin at Nationwide’s website.

• This week Jay Busbee at Yahoo (which is very different than a lowercase yahoo) breached the subject of racism in NASCAR. It was a very interesting, and thoughtful dialog on a sensitive subject in the sport. NASCAR sometimes gets a reputation for being a redneck sport, and while progress has been made, things like the Mauricia Grant litigation took over. I’m no historian, but didn’t the pilgrims flee the tyranny in England in search of a land where they could play Whiffle ball in peace?

• I try my best to avoid political discussion on this blog, but sometimes I see something that is just too much. John McCain sounds like a decent guy with some good ideas, but I’m not sure about him anymore:
  

  At a press availability today, John McCain expressed concern about relations between Russia and a country that hasn’t existed for quite some time. According to a rough pool report transcript, he said:

  “I was concerned about a couple of steps that the Russian government took in the last several days. One was reducing the energy supplies to Czechoslovakia. Apparently that is in reaction to the Czech’s agreement with us concerning missile defense, and again some of the Russian now announcement they are now retargeting new targets, something they abandoned at the end of the Cold War, is also a concern.”

  Czechoslovakia, of course, split into two separate countries in 1993.

  As someone that takes a great deal of unnecessary pride in being 25% Czech, John McCain is officially on notice. Maruskas everywhere are not amused.

• If you’re looking for some good summer music off the beaten path, check out Iron & Wine. He has a (very) mellow, acoustic sound with a Southern flavor.

Enjoy the weekend. Remember, there is no race on Sunday so go play outside. Or see the Dark Knight, which could be the best movie of the summer. Me, I’m going to skip my Sunday afternoon nap. That way I can double-up in two weeks for the Pocono race. Whatever you do, have a good weekend.

One of the most exciting parts of sports for me is the transactions and seeing how teams are built. I love drafts, hot stove leagues and trade deadlines. Obviously NASCAR is different since there is no salary cap, anyone can start a team, the draft is only relevant if you have a restrictor plate, and the only high profile commodities are the drivers and crew chiefs. What if there was a trade deadline prior to say the Brickyard 400? Imagine if drivers had no ties to ownership and their contracts were something that actually locked them into a team (let’s face it, it’s easier for a driver to get out of their contract than to escape their Nationwide cars in a bad crash)? It’s impossible for it to truly work, but indulge me for a minute. Pretend that a team could trade drivers and crew chiefs to fill other needs on their teams. For example: Instead of Mark Martin leaving DEI for nothing, Hendrick would have to pay compensation. DEI needs another driver, so maybe Hendrick exchanges Casey Mears and a chassis to be named later for the rights to Martin.

While other sports worry about salary caps or draft picks, NASCAR teams might use sponsorship logos as currency. Occasionally there is talk about franchising the teams in NASCAR, but I’m not waiting for that to happen. I’ve decided to assume they already are. Now that that’s done, here’s a few deals that I could see happening before this year’s trade deadline.

• In a blockbuster, Joe Gibbs Racing trades Tony Stewart to Haas-CNC in exchange for the monster of all wind tunnels. A $40 million rolling wind tunnel, the only one of its kind.

• An unhappy star driver with little chance of making the Chase is a perfect candidate to be dealt. Instead of keeping him there, trade him away for some young prospects. (Maybe that driver’s name rhymes Pawn Jablo Zontoya). Richard Childress Racing needs a skilled veteran driver to pilot their new fourth team for 2009. They might be willing to trade away Scott Wimmer, and crew chief Todd Berrier in exchange for Zontoya’s rights.

• In a mid-summer push to make the Chase and get Brian Vickers to Victory Lane, Red Bull Racing trades development driver Scott Speed and some Red Bull sponsor logos to Yates Racing in exchange for crew chief Todd Parrott.

• BAM Racing deals Ken Schrader to Furniture Row Racing for Joe Nemechek. The deal also apparently involved a swap of antique deck chairs believed to be on the Titanic.

• Jack Roush trades Jamie McMurray to Michael Waltrip Racing in exchange for an undisclosed chassis part. On the surface the trade looks very lopsided and despite no comment from Roush, he was seen in the garage with a large smile.

• With the #96 team outside the top 35, they acquire Ryan Newman and his qualifying prowess. Newman was set to leave Penske Racing for free agency after the season so the team cashed in at the trade deadline. JJ Yeley is sent the other way with Penske planning to field him in an IRL car.

• Owner Robby Gordon trades driver Robby Gordon and his offroad truck to Petty Enterprises in exchange for Bobby Labonte. Gordon the owner thought that the clam Labonte would take better care of his equipment and take Robby Gordon Motorsports to the next level. The move allows the Pettys to double the number of races where they’re competitive to two. Plus the offroad truck will be a big hit at the Victory Junction Gang camp.

What other trades could you see happening or want to see happen? Who should be traded? [note:posts don’t get published when you forget to hit “publish”.]

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. We’ll begin with the 2002 class.

2002: Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman 47 combined wins

What the class lacked in quantity was easily made up for in quality. Despite moderate results in the Busch Series, both Johnson and Newman both became Cup stars almost immediately. They both won races as rookies, and while Newman earned Rookie of the Year, Johnson actually had the better year, winning more races (3 to 1) and a higher finish in the standings (3rd). Both drivers scored 20+ top tens in their rookie seasons, proving their skill at the Cup level. 2003 they each debunked the myth of the Sophomore Slump. Newman won 8 races and driver of the year while Johnson finished third in the final standings.

Despite winning a season high 8 races in 2003, Newman has tailed off as a championship contender. Since 2003 he has only won 4 races in four and a half seasons. Although he has not reached the elite heights of NASCAR (due to a variety of reasons), Newman is a very solid driver. In six full seasons he has averaged 2 wins, 9.8 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. Plenty of drivers would take those numbers. Despite those numbers most fans would agree that Newman is talented enough to achieve even more. His point standings in the first four years were 6th, 6th, 7th and 6th, but the last two seasons he has missed the Chase. Among his accomplishments are 43 poles, which already ranks 11th on the all-time list in only six plus seasons. He also won the 2008 Daytona 500 in dramatic fashion.

If Jimmie Johnson was an unknown entering NASCAR, he has blossomed into one of the top three drivers in the sport. Johnson has won 34 races, including a Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, and the season title in 2006 and 2007. He has also never finished worse than 5th in the standings. His average stats for his first five full seasons are 5.5 wins, 14.3 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. He has also won at 15 of the 22 Cup tracks, proving his versatility. He and crew chief Chad Knaus have formed one of the longest driver-crew chief combinations and are widely regarding as one of the top pairings in the sport.

Verdict: Obviously it’s easier to assess this class because it’s older. In only 6+ seasons, Johnson is already one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport and could already begin filling out some of the details on his Hall of Fame application. It wasn’t a sure thing in 2002, however. Based on his Busch record, Johnson was a risky hire. Newman began his career with a flourish but has since struggled a bit, although that isn’t entirely his fault. As a class the two drivers have combined to win 47 races and have made the Chase 6 out of a possible 8 times. Overall this class produced one elite driver and another good driver. That’s a pretty good success rate.

A brief history of the #40 car. Once upon a time there was a driver named Sterling Marlin. He was hired to drive a racecar full time for Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates Racing (This was before they changed their name to Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates Mostly Riding Around). And he drove quite well. He won 2 races in 2001 and 2002. He finished 3rd in the points in ‘01 and was even leading the point standings for most of ‘02. He drove the #40 Coors Light car, which at the time was the organization’s flagship team. Unfortunately his 2002 was ended early by a wreck at Kansas.

The years went by and while Marlin was not quite the same, he still was a solid driver, holding his own at most tracks and running quite well at others. Despite his serious injury, he was still a top 20 driver and managed to keep the #40 car there as well.

One day in 2005 Felix Sabates came along and asked Marlin to stop driving the #40 Cup car. He explained that Coors Light didn’t believe old people drank beer anymore. Since Sterling was old, he could no longer identify with this bourgeoisie of beer drinkers. A fresh, young driver named Daivd Stremme would be the one that the public would look to when thirsty. Sabates also offered Marlin the chance to “hang out”, run some Busch races (note: at that time old people still drank Busch beer) and collect a six-figure check. Marlin was so blown away by Sabates’ offer that he joined MB2 sports and drove fulltime in the Cup series in 2006 and 2007 (based on reports he made much more than six figures).

So Marlin moved on, away from the #40 car that had reaped so much success for himself and Ganassi. Meanwhile Stremme and Ganassi struggled. They fell outside the top 35, and it took Stremme 40 races to score a top ten.

After 2007, Coors Light decided that no matter how young or cool their driver was, it was hard to peddle beer while finishing 25th. Then this year was the final blow. IRL star Dario Franchitti came in and struggled more than Stremme. The #40 car’s windows were boarded up and cobwebs will soon decorate the rest of the car. And if you listen carefully you can hear the faint sound of laughter, belonging of course to Marlin.

Other Notes.

• Aric Almirola will drive the #8 car for DEI next year. Almirola is definitely talented and, depending on Martin Truex’s 2009 status, becomes DEI’s #1 or #2 driver. He’s certainly more talented than Regan Smith and Paul Menard. What I can’t figure out is why Almirola hasn’t been entered into any Nationwide races this year? Even if the cost is too much for DEI to bear, there has to be another Nationwide team they could farm him out to for seat time. That would be like the Yankees telling Joba Chamberlain, “We think you will be our #1 starting pitcher in 2009. To prepare for this high profile role, we will have you sporadically start 10 times this year. The rest of the time we’d like you to pitch batting practice and have bullpen sessions.”

  NASCAR will surely tout it as a victory for diversity, but I prefer to look at it as a good young driver who has paid his dues in the lower ranks including the Truck series that earned his chance. Whether that chance was accelerated by the Drive for Diversity program, I don’t fully know.

• Speaking of DEI, NASCAR impounded the #1 car of Martin Truex Jr. Since it’s a new DEI car, it came with all the latest DEI technology. Technology like a radar for where 17th place is on the track, an in-car #3 diecast retail store, and a gas pedal that wouldn’t go all the way to the floor. Reports that Truex wanted to drive one of Haas-CNC or Penske’s backup cars are completely false as well.

• I saw Baby Mama last weekend at the cheap theater. I’m a big fan of Amy Poehler and for three dollars it was defintely worth watching. If you are a fan of 30 Rock, you should enjoy this movie too. Tina Fey plays essentially her same role as Liz Lemon on 30 Rock: mostly serious, having to clean up others’ mistakes but also free to stray into comedy as well. That allowed Poehler , who I think is one of the funniest female actors around, to shine as the white trash surrogate. If you’re looking for a night to mentally unplug, it’s a good choice.

Have you ever had a friend that no matter what they do can’t seem to get out of their own way? Maybe they get a raise at work, but then blow it on a new TV they can’t afford? You can’t help but slap your forehead and cover your eyes. In NASCAR that friend is Dodge. For every triumph, there seems to be self-inflicted Dodge has won three of the last six Cup races. When you throw in Kasey Kahne’s All-Star win, that’s 4 in the last seven, which is more than the manufacturer won in all of 2007. On paper, things look pretty good for Dodge and its teams. Of course reality tells a different story, and to anyone that has followed NASCAR in recent years knows how self-sabotaging the Dodge teams can be. Even during high spots, there are more problems than positives.

The big news this week is that Chip Ganassi is putting the #40 car up on cinder blocks for the rest of 2008, meaning Dario Franchitti’s Cup career will also see weeds and grass sprout around it while it sits in the backyard at Ganassi’s shop. The lack of sponsorship was the final blow for the car. While Franchitti entered NASCAR with great credentials like an Indy 500 win and an IRL championship (not to mention the Judd marketing factor), it’s pretty easy to see why companies passed on Ganassi. Their NASCAR teams stink. One Cup win since 2002, no driver has ever made the Chase and since 2005 no driver has scored more than 10 top 10’s in a season. In the middle of 2005 Ganassi announced tentative plans to expand to four cars. It never happened because Jamie McMurray successfully voided his contract and moved to Roush-Fenway, but at the time Ganassi did have enough sponsorship for all four teams. Of course that was before the mortgage crisis (remember Home 1-2-3?) and the overall economic slowdown. It’s a little surprising Franchitti was willing to come to NASCAR despite the lack of funding.

In 2006 Kasey Kahne won a series high 6 races and made the Chase for Evernham Motorsports. At the same time teammate Jeremy Mayfield struggled to stay inside the top 35, was ultimately fired in midseason and threatened legal action. The ugliness only intensified with the inappropriate relationship between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker. That ultimately played a part in the team’s abysmal 2007 season where the team realized halfway through that their season was wasted due using incorrect data to build their cars. Things are just now returning to normal, almost a year and a half later.

How about Penske Racing? In the summer of 2005 they signed one of the biggest free agents, Kurt Busch, to replace the retiring Rusty Wallace. It was the perfect driver to build upon a successful 2005 season that saw two of the three Penske cars make the Chase. Instead Penske chopped the #77 team (not due to sponsorship) and contracted back to two teams. To make things worse, the Penske teams spent the majority of the offseason and the spring trying to run the older Intrepid instead of the current Charger model. The result was-you guessed it-a wasted season. After two seasons of two cars the #77 finally returned to the track this year, but is again struggling as a new team. Had it been running continuously, the team might be a lot further along and more competitive with the other top teams at Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford.

All of the teams at Dodge (don’t forget Petty Enterprises, who is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant) have struggled in the last five years. It’s fitting given the unstable nature of Dodge. Daimler sold the company in 2007 and they are still struggling to compete. Things could only get worse for Dodge on the competition side. With factory support an unknown quantity, there is no real hope for drastic improvement on the track. And based on some of the rumors, top drivers like Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya could have other opportunities with different teams next year as well. While the wins might increase with Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch, the overall picture in the Dodge camp is pretty gloomy.

Normally I spend the day after a race reading as many blogs and websites for information on the race. After a quick spin through the usual blogging suspects, I was too wiped out to read anymore. I made me realize how draining Speedweeks are for fans. The Bud Shootout kicks things off and fans get a rush of adrenaline because NASCAR is back. Then qualifying is the next day, there is always something newsworthy to talk about from Monday through Wednesday and then the Duels on Thursday guarantee action. Then there’s no time to catch your breath before the Truck, Nationwide and Cup races over the weekend. Come Monday, I’m exhausted. Worse, I didn’t get President’s Day off . Now imagine a driver like Kyle Busch who participated in every session except the Shootout. The dude has to be fixin’ for a vacation!

Unfortunately for Shrub, he will have to wait one more week some surfing. The tour heads west this coming weekend for the race in Fontana. Ah, movie stars, empty seats and often a nice nap before the finish. Although after the action at Daytona brings promise that the CoT will make for better racing at the front of the field.

Before we think about this weekend, it’s time to exhale and wring out the rest of the Daytona tidbits. First, check out the different emotions of the finish from a fan of the winner and contrast that with reactions from the driver that just missed. The highs and lows of the biggest race in the sport in a nutshell.

The Weekend in Quotes

I don’t think I have the words for what the last year has been. Exactly a year ago today actually, not to elaborate, but my wife was diagnosed with cancer. You know, I thank Roger Penske for giving me the opportunity to take care of what comes first, which is family. Without Roger, I would not have been able to do that. That just says a lot about the team as a whole again.

-Penske crew chief Roy McCauley. It’s sometimes forgotten that crew members have real lives with real families. I can’t imagine how rewarding it must be that not only did McCauley make the right decision to take time off, see his wife’s health improve, and then return to enjoy the thrill of a Daytona 500 win.

Don’t have the words. It’s awesome. It’s probably one of the most awesome things that’s ever happened to me. To understand all the history of NASCAR, of racing in general, you know, the drivers meeting, to be looking face to face with all the guys, the greats that were on stage up there, and now to be part of one of those guys and part of that team, it’s just awesome.

Ryan Newman on his win.

We’re going to spend it to make the cars go faster, I’m sure that’ll be the first thing we’ll do.

Roger Penske on where the $1 million bonus check from Dodge will go. Did someone say personal test track?

Once I did get to the back bumper, I just held the gas down. I didn’t care how hard I hit him — it was coming to the checkered flag.

Kyle Busch describing the last lap. Although it could easily have been his outlook for any of the 200 laps.

On that last restart we weren’t fast enough to run up front. We were in a bad spot. I knew we were going to get passed for the lead but it’s always fun to lead at Daytona. Finishing 13th isn’t a bad start to the season.

Jeff Burton, who was a sitting duck on the final restart.

Yeah, we just got caught doing something everybody else is doing (laughter).

Dale Earnhardt Jr, when asked to elaborate on the “technical issue” on his Nationwide car. In other words, nothing has changed regarding cheating in NASCAR.

Now it’s time to move on to the rest of 2008. It seems like Daytona, while it is the biggest race of the season, gets a disproportionate amount of coverage compared to the other 35 races. After all, it has very little bearing on long term success for the season, the winner rarely wins the championship and things could be completely different by the time the tour returns in July.

Don’t forget to check out the 2008 Driver Previews of the top 25 drivers. New drivers added daily through the end of the week.

What a way to get your first win in 81 races. And not a bad race to choose either. Ryan Newman gets a well-deserved and popular win (how about that burnout, or was it a smokeout?). The difference came down to a battle of teammates, and the two Penske cars got a better bump draft than the Gibbs cars, who had a bigger gap between them.

On the surface the success by the Dodge teams looks like a big surprise, but all of the Dodge teams have made gains on restrictor plate tracks in recent years. Kurt Busch had a top 5 driver rating at three of the four plate races in 2007. Ryan Newman nearly won the 2006 Daytona 500 had fellow Dodge driver Casey Mears gone with him. Evernham placed two drivers in the top ten in last year’s Daytona 500. Ganassi’s Reed Sorenson finished in the top five in each of his Daytona races this week. They didn’t lead a lot of laps but were all around at the right time and got good finishes. 6 of the top 10 and 8 of the top 15.

California will be a big test for all the teams, but especially Dodge. Penske cars ran well last year at intermediates, but can GEM and Ganassi find consistent speed? That is the bigger test.

Random Thoughts and Notes

• As I mentioned last week I had a soccer game meaning the race was watched on tape delay. I saw the first 8 laps live, left the house and then had to spend the rest of the afternoon avoiding all of my favorite websites, email and even my cell phone to successfully escape the NASCAR world temporarily. If you’ve ever taped a race, you know how tempting it is to look up the winner.

• The Gibbs cars combined to lead 136 of the 200 laps. Obviously a restrictor plate race is different than other tracks, but that doesn’t bode well for pure horsepower for the other manufacturers. Chevy led 31, Dodge 23, Toyota (Non-Gibbs Division) 5, and Ford led 8. Let’s not get carried away yet and crown the Gibbs drivers. Hendrick, Roush and RCR will have something to say over the next three weeks about speedway supremacy.

• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin (and you could probably throw in Tony Stewart too) are going to have a blow up at some point this season. It will most likely come when they are fighting for the lead in the first third of a race. The team is not going to implode as the Fox booth alluded to, but there will be an incident.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr had the second best driver rating (115.6), hung out in the top 5 all day and looked fairly strong in the nighttime. The one thing missing was any semblance of teammates.

• Other notable finishes: Bobby Labonte narrowly missed a top 10 in 11th. After getting hung out to dry, Jeff Burton sunk to 13th place. Sam Hornish Jr finished 15th and had a very impressive 90.1 driver rating. In his final Daytona 500 Dale Jarrett finished 16th. That’s his best finish since an 11th at Atlanta two years ago.

• Furniture Row’s Sunday didn’t turn out like their big Thursday. Both cars finished in the 40’s. Don’t feel too bad, the two collected over $500,000 in prize money for the effort. That will go a long way towards paying bills for the small organization.

• Does the CoT signify the end of the Big One? The combination of the wing and the heavier body have kept cars against the wall instead of hurtling back towards the pack. Car after car hit the wall and stuck there. Even my wife asked why the cars weren’t creating huge melees. The more cars that are around at the end of restrictor plate races the better.

• Top five commercials: Amp (Junior fighting a Gorilla), Toyota (kids controlling drivers’ cars with remote controls), NAPA (’90 Bristol Car), Fedex (Hamlin speed-reading), UPS (Dale Jarrett finally races—and wins—in the truck)

  Least favorite: Carl Edwards in the Claritin spot. The product may not cause drowsiness, but its ads do.

• Fox unveiled the new Gopher Cam. It’s a ground level camera in each turn that gives another new perspective. As someone born in Minnesota, I’m all for more exposure for Gophers, but I still prefer the crane cam. There is just something about the sweeping shot of the lead pack through an entire turn.

• If anyone has a connection with a Fox Sports producer, I would love to see one simple change. When a pit road reporter is talking, they highlight their name with a yellow bar on the ticker. My immediate reaction is there’s a caution, then realize it’s merely Krista Voda talking. When I was a youngster, I had the Crayloa 64-color box. Almost any of the other 63 colors would work. How about a nice periwinkle or purple mountain majesty?

[Apologies for the late post. Apparently you have to hit “publish” when you want something show up on the World Wide Web.]

If you need more NASCAR goodness (and who doesn’t?) check out news and opinions over at Racing Nation.

81 races and counting. That’s the running total on Ryan Newman’s win drought at the Cup level. It’s part of a downward trend in Newman’s short Cup career. He won 8 races in 2003. 2 in 2004, 1 in 2005 and zero in each of the past two seasons. After making the first two versions of the Chase, Newman has been absent from the past two playoff sessions.

Despite his declining win totals, Newman is still most often found near the front of the pack. He came agonizingly close to winning several races in 2007. Starting from the pole at Dover, he led 135 laps, but finished second to a dominant Martin Truex Jr. He won the pole again the next week at Pocono and was within one turn of taking the lead from Jeff Gordon when NASCAR called the race due to rain. He also nearly won at Charlotte before he blew a tire while leading the race with less than 50 laps to go.

The biggest achilles heel for the #12 team is the high number of bad finishes. Newman had 10 finishes of 30th or worse. 4 of these kinds of results came in the first 8 races of the season, putting Newman in a big hole. Newman is a top 12-caliber driver, but he needs to do better to avoid crashes. There are races where Newman will really struggle with a setup and that usually ends up in a bad finish in the 30’s instead of just a disappointing finish somewhere in the high teens or twenties.

The other element to Newman’s high DNF count was 5 engine failures. It’s surprising since the team had zero engine failures in 2006. Traditionally Penske has had strong, reliable horsepower and this problem will surely be temporary.

Penske does not lack for anything resource-wise (Proposed plans to build their own test track!). The problem is getting everyone on the same page. Look at the failed Intrepid/Charger experiment in 2006. That kind of distraction set the team back for an entire year. Things went better in 2007, especially with the CoT. Newman had a 13.3 average finish in the 16 races featuring the boxier new model. Part of this is probably due to Newman’s strength at tracks 1 mile and under, but the fact that he can run well in the new car is a good sign.

The company cleaned things up in 2007, but now there is a third team to incorporate into the Penske system. That will pull resources and personnel away from the #2 and #12 teams. Is Penske deep enough to handle the changes? The other pressing question is how will Newman and new crew chief Roy McCauley click? McCauley was previously with Kurt Busch and the #2 team, but took most of 2007 off to tend to a family emergency. Thankfully he’s back and his chemistry with Newman will be key. After spending his first four plus seasons with Matt Borland, Newman is now on his third crew chief in two years.

Newman is a threat to win the pole at any intermediate speedway, especially Atlanta and Charlotte. He has 42 career poles in six years, with seven each at Atlanta and Charlotte. Unfortunately he has only won from the pole three times. Of his 42 poles, only 22 have led to top ten finishes.

When it comes to winning races, Newman is a pretty well rounded driver. He has scored top 5’s at every race track except Homestead, but there are a handful of tracks where Newman especially shines. At Dover Newman has 3 wins, 6 top 5’s, and 8 top 10’s in only 12 career races. That’s an impressive line, but his Loudon numbers are almost as good (2 wins, 5 tip 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 4 poles). Pocono and Michigan also represent tracks where Newman is capable of winning.

Newman can make the Chase in 2008. He doesn’t even need to win a race, but that’s probably on his personal checklist. In order for the Chase to be reality, Newman needs to straighten a few things out. Priority one is reducing the number of sub-30 finishes by at least 50%. It’s better to settle for a 20th place finish than wrecking. Penske also must do their part to true up the engine program and make sure Newman has the top 5 and top 10 cars he expects. If he can tighten up his finishes, increase his top 5’s by three or four, the Chase is a real possibility for 2008. After that, wins will be icing on the cake.

Sam Hornish Jr is coming to NASCAR and if you believe what bloggers say, he has no chance at success. Obviously beginning your Cup career by not qualifying for your first six races is ripe for skepticism, but Hornish has quite a few advantages compared to other open wheel converts.

Penske Power

Of all the recent open wheel imports, Hornish is the guy with potentially the best equipment. Both Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman consistently run in the top ten and with slightly different circumstances could have won 4 or 5 races combined. Compare that to the virgin efforts of Bill Davis and Red Bull at Toyota or the inconsistent outfits at Ganassi and Evernham and it’s pretty clear that Hornish will have room to grow into his equipment rather than the reverse. One point to make here is that Penske’s 3rd car in 2004 and 2005 was a major downer and could remain that way. On the other hand why would they contract in 2006 only to expand again for 2008 unless the team felt more capable of running three cars?

A Good Mentor

When Montoya needed advice he had to rely on two sophomore teammates at the Cup level. Sam Hornish has the luxury of picking the brain of someone who has already made a successful transition, Ryan Newman. Newman came at a younger age, but had a similar learning curve transitioning from USAC to stock cars. Hornish can also tap into Montoya’s and Allmendinger’s experiences from 2007 and learn from some of their bumps and mistakes.

Age

Hornish will turn 28 next July. Excluding A.J. Allmendinger, every open wheel driver is older than 30. Roger Penske can surely afford time to Hornish and that patience could be rewarded later. Most drivers seem to hit their prime sometime in their early to mid 30’s. While Dario Franchitti, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Charpentier and even Juan Pablo Montoya are spending their 30’s on a new challenge, Hornish will likely have those years to reach his full potential in a stock car.

Points

This one is still unknown, but if Penske decides to transfer the #2’s points to Hornish’s car it would be a huge step in his stock car growth. Look at Montoya versus Allmendinger this season. A secure Montoya can use every practice for gaining experience and familiarity with stock cars, while Allmendinger has to spend practices doing mock qualifying runs and ensuring the car makes it until Sunday.

Talent

Hornish has 3 IRL titles, an Indy 500 title and 19 career wins. It’s not like he has zero credentials as a driver. It will take time and 2008 has to be considered a transition year, but Hornish may have the best chance of the open wheelers to be a long term star at the Cup level.