Trouble in Turn2

A few weeks ago I wrote a list of ten fearless predictions. Fearless as they were, they were also written with my tongue lodged in the side of my cheek. It’s easy to hide behind a satirical list, but it’s time for a list of things that could seriously happen this year, and we’ll start with the boldest one. [Tease: There is something pretty cool at the bottom that I can’t take credit for. So if you were thinking of navigating away because you think this/I is/am lame, at least scroll to the bottom of the post for something entertaining.]

1. Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase. Gordon had a phenomenal 2007 season. 30 top 10’s, 6 wins and only one DNF are incredible numbers and it will be hard to duplicate. Part of it is simply regression to the mean. The other part is that Gordon typically faces more DNF’s (9 in 2005, 7 in 2006) and that will drain points. In recent years Gordon and the team have also been slow to make, or adapt to, adjustments. In 2005 with the rise in popularity of coil-bound setups, Gordon languished all summer as the team struggled to get Gordon comfortable on intermediate speedways. If Gordon has anything close to a weakness it would be his intermediate speedway program. With a brand new car at this type of track, there’s a very legitimate chance that it takes Gordon a while to get up to speed.

   It’s not simply citing 2005 either. Last year in a spectacular season, Gordon and Steve Letarte were slow to change their gameplan in the Chase while Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were winning 4 straight races with a more aggressive approach. That cost Gordon the title last year. Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

2. Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year. Smith got a gradual introduction to the Cup series last year thanks to his apprenticeship with Mark Martin. He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. Sure Juan Pablo Montoya surprised last year, but he was in a different class. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

3. Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year. Watkins Glen was arguably the most unpredictable and exciting race of 2007 and the road courses will only get better this year. With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya, Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish Jr, AJ Allmendinger, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Carpentier, Boris Said, Ron Fellows, Scott Pruett. Now factor in the old guard featuring drivers like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Robby Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray and you have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

4. Toyota will win 6 races. At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Tony Stewart has never won less than two races and 7 out of 9 seasons he’s won at least three. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch also figure to win one or two races each. Gibbs alone will approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane. In fact Vickers had arguably the best car at Charlotte until he lost the power steering late and Blaney finished 3rd at Talladega.

5. Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver. When Shrub was with Hendrick, the team had Cup champion past (Jeff Gordon), present (Jimmie Johnson) and future (Busch). Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

6. A team will alter their full schedule plans Last year it was Ginn, this winter Morgan-McClure quietly closed their doors, and this year could take its toll on another team. With so many teams with high profile sponsors all vying for the same real estate in the 43-car field, simple math shows there isn’t enough room for everyone. As a result some sponsors will not want to hang around if they can’t get exposure for their brand. That will force a team to either dig deep in their own pockets or scale back. Prior to last week this could have easily been Robby Gordon Motorsports, but he is probably safe thanks to Gillet-Evernham’s shelter.

   Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each alredy on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season. Like Metallica says, Sad but True.

Something Cool

I got an email out of the blue yesterday from someone named Ryan Parker. He writes topical sports songs and his latest is sort of an ode to NASCAR and the 2008 season. It’s really well done and he told me it took about 8 hours for the whole process. You can see all of his songs at his website.

The most common phrases people use to describe second-year Cup driver Denny Hamlin are things like, “He can’t keep this up,” or “just wait for the letdown”. After two straight Chase berths and three Cup wins, what if the letdown never comes? What if Hamlin is simply one of the top Cup drivers?

Based on his disappointing 12th place finish, it might look like Hamlin regressed from his 3rd place finish in 2006, but that’s not true at all. His 97.0 driver rating and 918 laps led proved he was a front runner. In 2006 Hamlin was more often avoiding trouble and compiling strong finishes. It was a sound strategy for a rookie and Hamlin raised the bar last year.

Hamlin only won one race (Loudon) in 2007, but he could have easily won four or five. Hamlin had good runs at Bristol, Phoenix, Talladega, Darlington, Pocono only to see wins slip through his fingers in one way or another. At Bristol it was a faulty oil pump cable. He was class of the field at Phoenix, Darlington and Pocono only to lose on a pit road speeding penalty, a bad pit stop and rain respectively. He ran out of gas at Talladega due to a questionably long caution period. And in the most bizarre race of the season, Hamlin lost the lead at Atlanta when his car sputtered on the penultimate restart due to water in the fuel tank.

Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford enter their third season together and probably will stick to their regular gameplan, which means keeping things simple, avoiding trouble and not making silly mistakes. Based on preseason testing, any concerns about Joe Gibbs Racing’s switch to Toyota should be quelled. Hamlin and teammates Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart were all near the top of the speed charts. The combination of the Gibbs’ organization’s knowledge and Toyota’s resources and engineering is going to make a lot of horsepower and speed.

Hamlin’s favored tracks are the short, tight tracks like Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond and Martinsville. He takes great pride in his Virginian roots and a win at Richmond or Martinsville would be very popular. Based on his results at the two tracks, that win is likely to come this year. He has seven top tens and two poles in 9 total races at the two Virginia tracks. Hamlin also runs well at Texas, California and Pocono. In fact Hamlin has been downright dominant at Pocono. In his four Cup starts he has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top tens plus 283 laps led.

Hamlin is capable of success at nearly any track, but he also showed an emotional side in 2007 that proved costly on several occasions. At Daytona, he got together with teammate Tony Stewart and both wrecked while running 1st and 2nd. That led to both drivers blaming the other and ended with both being called into the boss’ office. Later in the year Hamlin tangled with Kyle Petty at Dover. After the race he refused to accept responsibility for the crash, despite both drivers being at least partially culpable. Not only did the incidents scuff his reputation, but they also were the worst finishes of the year. It’s hard enough to avoid bad results without exacerbating the situation. That goes double in the Chase.

Based on what Toyota has shown so far, Hamlin has a great chance to make the Chase again. Hamlin is good enough at most tracks that he will be in position to compete for wins. There is no reason why Hamlin will miss the Chase, but strange things happen in NASCAR–especially how competitive this year promises to be. Hamlin should win a race or two, score 8 to 10 top 5’s and be in the hunt for a Chase spot.

81 races and counting. That’s the running total on Ryan Newman’s win drought at the Cup level. It’s part of a downward trend in Newman’s short Cup career. He won 8 races in 2003. 2 in 2004, 1 in 2005 and zero in each of the past two seasons. After making the first two versions of the Chase, Newman has been absent from the past two playoff sessions.

Despite his declining win totals, Newman is still most often found near the front of the pack. He came agonizingly close to winning several races in 2007. Starting from the pole at Dover, he led 135 laps, but finished second to a dominant Martin Truex Jr. He won the pole again the next week at Pocono and was within one turn of taking the lead from Jeff Gordon when NASCAR called the race due to rain. He also nearly won at Charlotte before he blew a tire while leading the race with less than 50 laps to go.

The biggest achilles heel for the #12 team is the high number of bad finishes. Newman had 10 finishes of 30th or worse. 4 of these kinds of results came in the first 8 races of the season, putting Newman in a big hole. Newman is a top 12-caliber driver, but he needs to do better to avoid crashes. There are races where Newman will really struggle with a setup and that usually ends up in a bad finish in the 30’s instead of just a disappointing finish somewhere in the high teens or twenties.

The other element to Newman’s high DNF count was 5 engine failures. It’s surprising since the team had zero engine failures in 2006. Traditionally Penske has had strong, reliable horsepower and this problem will surely be temporary.

Penske does not lack for anything resource-wise (Proposed plans to build their own test track!). The problem is getting everyone on the same page. Look at the failed Intrepid/Charger experiment in 2006. That kind of distraction set the team back for an entire year. Things went better in 2007, especially with the CoT. Newman had a 13.3 average finish in the 16 races featuring the boxier new model. Part of this is probably due to Newman’s strength at tracks 1 mile and under, but the fact that he can run well in the new car is a good sign.

The company cleaned things up in 2007, but now there is a third team to incorporate into the Penske system. That will pull resources and personnel away from the #2 and #12 teams. Is Penske deep enough to handle the changes? The other pressing question is how will Newman and new crew chief Roy McCauley click? McCauley was previously with Kurt Busch and the #2 team, but took most of 2007 off to tend to a family emergency. Thankfully he’s back and his chemistry with Newman will be key. After spending his first four plus seasons with Matt Borland, Newman is now on his third crew chief in two years.

Newman is a threat to win the pole at any intermediate speedway, especially Atlanta and Charlotte. He has 42 career poles in six years, with seven each at Atlanta and Charlotte. Unfortunately he has only won from the pole three times. Of his 42 poles, only 22 have led to top ten finishes.

When it comes to winning races, Newman is a pretty well rounded driver. He has scored top 5’s at every race track except Homestead, but there are a handful of tracks where Newman especially shines. At Dover Newman has 3 wins, 6 top 5’s, and 8 top 10’s in only 12 career races. That’s an impressive line, but his Loudon numbers are almost as good (2 wins, 5 tip 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 4 poles). Pocono and Michigan also represent tracks where Newman is capable of winning.

Newman can make the Chase in 2008. He doesn’t even need to win a race, but that’s probably on his personal checklist. In order for the Chase to be reality, Newman needs to straighten a few things out. Priority one is reducing the number of sub-30 finishes by at least 50%. It’s better to settle for a 20th place finish than wrecking. Penske also must do their part to true up the engine program and make sure Newman has the top 5 and top 10 cars he expects. If he can tighten up his finishes, increase his top 5’s by three or four, the Chase is a real possibility for 2008. After that, wins will be icing on the cake.

A 76.4 driver rating? Isn’t that a number usually associated with someone stuck in mid-pack, not a front runner like Greg Biffle. Well, that’s where fans could find Biffle during most of 2007. Only one win—a contested win at that, a handful (5) of top 5’s and zero chance at competing for a Chase spot. Here’s another startling stat, Biffle led a minscule 73 laps, a career low. Biffle’s hard charging style means if he can lead laps, he will. And last year he didn’t. All of that is to say that Biffle’s season was filled with frustrations.

Maybe we should have seen it coming. It took him until race 5 to score his first top 10, meaning he was off the pace at California, Las Vegas and Atlanta, three intermediate tracks that typically fall in Biffle’s wheelhouse. After Jack Roush spent the offseason claiming Biffle and new crew chief Pat Tryson had carte blanche in regards to Roush Racing personnel and resources, the result was a failure.

You could shrug off Biffle’s struggles to bad luck, but this is his second straight season of “bad luck”. In 2006 Biffle had a top ten driver rating and led 993 laps, but things out of his control like engine failures and wrecks eliminated him from Chase contention. The #16 simply didn’t perform in 2007.

The Pat Tryson experiment didn’t work and by June Greg Erwin was Biffle’s new crew chief. The results didn’t change much, but Erwin and Biffle did manage 3 top 5’s in the final ten races. That included Biffle’s sole win of 2007 late in the year at Kansas, despite a controversial finish. In a darkness shortened race, Biffle took the checkered flag under caution, and immediately pulled to the infield and stopped. Other drivers complained that Biffle didn’t maintain caution speed and therefore didn’t win the race. NASCAR said he did and so Biffle wound up in victory lane.

The good news for 2008 is that Biffle ran better in the CoT than the old car. His average in the “old car” was 21.5 compared to his 14.8 in the CoT. This sets a good tone for the team’s short track program that can hopefully translate to the other aspects of the Cup schedule. He typically adjusts quickly to new changes too. That provides hope in 2008 for Biffle at some of his best tracks like Michigan, Atlanta, Texas and California. 8 of his 12 career wins came at either 1.5 or 2 mile tracks.

Biffle also excels at tracks that require great car control. Places like Dover, Bristol, Phoenix and Darlington are all places that Biffle really takes off. Biffle has led laps at every current Cup track and has scored top tens at every track except Talladega. Road courses and restrictor plate races are still not his strengths, but he can turn in good runs at these tracks too.

Despite only five years of Cup experience Biffle is 38 years old. His contract expires at year’s end and Roush-Fenway is also mandated to eliminate one of its five Cup teams. All that adds up to a pivotal season for Biffle. If things begin like last year, does Biffle begin searching for other rides?

A lot will be answered in the first seven races. Four of the first seven races come at intermediate tracks. Throw in a race at Bristol and the schedule sets up very well for Biffle. He needs to score three or four top tens and lead some laps. If that happens, it will mean that Roush has a good handle on the CoT and Biffle has a chance at the Chase. If not, then it could be another long year for the #16 team.

The word on the street is that Casey Mears drives for Hendrick Motorsports. Based on most NASCAR publications and promotional pictures it would be easy to think of HMS as a three-car galaxy of superstars. Mears is a solid driver in his own right. In fact Mears finished one spot better than his higher profile teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the 2007 point standings. Don’t feel bad for Mears. Sure he gets as much attention as an extra on Oceans 13, but his situation continues to improve with Hendrick.

It took Mears the first third of the season to settle into the #25 car. A rash of wrecks didn’t help and it pushed Mears to the edge of the top 35 cliff. He eventually clawed his way back to the teens in the standings. Then came the big breakthrough. At the Coca Cola 600 Mears ran in the top 5 all night and then endured on fuel mileage for his first career Cup win. He followed that up with two top fives in the next three races.

He set career highs in wins, top 5’s, top 10’s and lead lap finishes. The first three numbers are obvious, but improving his lead lap finishes is a credit to his new Hendrick equipment. The cars are there for Mears to take advantage of, now the rest is up to him to avoid wrecks and find the right setup.

New crew chief Alan Gustafson will handle most of the heavy lifting on car setups. Last year Darian Grubb came from the engineering team to be Mears’ crew chief. Grubb had to rebuild the #25 team and quickly grow into the crew chief’s role, both of which contributed to Mears’ slow start. Now Grubb moves back to engineering to make way for one of the top young crew chiefs in the sport. Gustafson has spent the last three seasons with Kyle Busch and the #5 team, where they’ve won 4 races. After assorted headaches with Busch, Mears is surely a treat for Gustafson.

Mears showed improved consistency, but the next step is running closer to the front. He had 12 races where finished 11th-20th and only led 33 laps in 2007. Whittling 15th place finishes down to top 10’s would mean a nice jump in points. It’s a simple plan, but will be tough with so many other top drivers vying for the same space on the track.

His comfort is found at the intermediate tracks where he has experienced the most success. Tracks like Texas (4 top 10’s in 5 starts), Las Vegas, Kansas and Pocono comprise the type of fast, gradually-banked tracks that apparently fit Mears’ style. Mears weakness continues to be places like Phoenix, Loudon and Richmond. He has one career top ten in 28 career starts at the three sister tracks.

Can he make the Chase? Some have pointed to 2005 when Roush Racing placed all five of their drivers in the season ending playoffs as a sign that Hendrick could land all 4 drivers in the 2008 Chase. So sure, it’s possible. The big difference then, was that Roush perfected the 2005 aero package while other teams, including some Hendrick cars, struggled mightily. The CoT is in its second year and while Hendrick shot out to a large lead last year, the rest of the sport is bound to close the gap this year. In other words, last year was the more likely season to place a whole organization in the Chase. Mears had a nice 2007, and another win at a speedway or superspeedway is entirely possible in 2008. Beyond that, it’s hard seeing Mears vault over so many drivers to make the Chase.

[Warning: This preview only covers aspects of Dale Earnhardt Jr’s 2008 racing season and therefore will sidestep any non-racing drama, theatrics or further mentions of family relationships.]

You don’t have to be a hard core NASCAR fan to know that Dale Earnhardt Jr is heading to a new team in 2008. The team, sponsors and number are all new, but what everyone really wants to see is a return to his old, frontrunning ways with some wins mixed in. The NASCAR question of the year requires a whale of an answer: How will Dale Jr do with Hendrick Motorsports?

The answers vary as much as fans’ opinions about Junior’s move to Hendrick itself:
“He’ll be an instant champion.”
“He’s overrated no matter where he is.”
“He’ll be overshadowed by Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson.”
It’s always hard to guess how a driver will adapt to a new team, so instead of guessing, let’s look at some numbers. Based on the last three years, the third Hendrick team’s numbers with Kyle Busch went like this:

I used the last three seasons because the third team prior to 2005 was driven by either Terry Labonte in the twilight of his career or rookie Brian Vickers. It wasn’t a very good indicator of the third car’s potential. Now check out Dale Jr’s stats from 2003-2007

Comparing the two drivers, they both have similar averages. Since 2003 Earnhardt has a composite line of 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s. That’s almost exactly Busch’s three year average of 1.3 wins, 10 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s.

In 2007 Jr’s 93.2 driver rating was 8th best, better than four drivers that made the Chase. This shows a few things. One, he was running inside the top 10 on a consistent basis. The other point to note is that rating was pulled down by his rash of engine failures (6). He was actually closer to 5th or 6th on a weekly basis. That is about what we should expect in 2008.

Importing Tony Eury Jr to remain as Earnhardt’s crew chief is a huge bonus in the transition. The fact that Eury began working Hendrick prior to November accelerates the process even more. Eury is widely respected as one of the top crew chiefs at the Cup level and most crucially, has a good understanding of what Earnhardt needs. When Junior screams over his radio about a tight condition, Eury can interpret the changes needed based on the octave of Earnhardt’s screams. Few crew chief/driver combinations can communicate on such an unconventional level. Aside from the obvious technical improvements that Hendrick can offer, the attention-to-detail attitude of the company could also help eliminate some of the mental mistakes that have cost the two Juniors in the past.

Earnhardt Jr is best known for his command at restrictor plate tracks, but he is pretty well rounded. Talladega and Daytona are great tracks, but he is an elite driver at Bristol, Atlanta, Texas, Richmond and Martinsville too. He has also worked hard to improve as a road racer. He ran inside the top 5 at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen all afternoon, until fuel mileage and a blown engine spoiled his respective runs.

One argument detractors make is that Earnhardt Jr will have to beat his new teammates in order to have success. That is no different than last year, except now he is on an even field equipment-wise. A driver will always have to beat 42 other cars in order to win a race or a Cup title, so that argument doesn’t hold up.

Returning to the original question, how far can Junior climb this year? Eury Jr said they will win 4 races, but that’s a stretch. The only year Earnhardt has won 4 or more races was 2004. It’s a big leap to go from 1 race to 4 or 5, even for a driver as talented as Earnhardt is. The biggest difference will be seen in the consistency of the Hendrick cars. In previous years Earnhardt could often make his way into the top ten, but not always stay there. That lowered his chances of being at the front at the finish. He would also have a handful of races where the team was simply uncompetitive. These things will diminish at Hendrick, where he will get top 5 calibur cars on a weekly basis. His primary numbers may not change much over his career averages, but secondary numbers like his driver rating, laps led and number of laps spent in the top ten should all increase. 10 top 5’s would mean that he’s running at the front often enough to be in position to win and 20 top 10’s would surely equal a Chase berth. Once he’s in the Chase–a welcome sight for all NASCAR fans, is where we’ll see what he has for the other big guns in the sport.

It seems like Jamie McMurray enters each season with the hopes of a breakthrough season. Is he finally ready for a breakthrough? Or has he simply reached the peak of his skills? First some numbers.

His first three Cup seasons he spent with Chip Ganassi Racing (with Felix Sabates-Target-Kitchen Sink-Motorsports). Ganassi’s equipment was widely recognized as second rate compared to the powerhouse teams like Hendrick, Gibbs and Roush Racing. The logic said if McMurray can do a good job with mediocre resources, he would be great at one of the top teams, like Roush Racing. He’s now entering year three with a top team and the results have stayed the same. Excluding his excellent 2004, his numbers are the same from year to year.

The confounding part is that McMurray is truly talented. He is equally adept at road courses as he is plate races or short tracks. In fact he has scored at least one top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. Some of his best tracks are difficult tracks like Darlington, Dover and Bristol. Yet somehow McMurray struggles to consistently run in the top 5 and top 10. **It’s not even a matter of running well and finishing poorly. He simply has too many races where the car doesn’t run well. He has 703 career laps led over six seasons. That total is fewer than four drivers led in 2007 alone.

This preview isn’t meant to simply knock McMurray. He had a lot of good runs in 2007. The highlight of the season was his win at the summer race at Daytona. It was a dramatic finish that gave McMurray his first win since that shocking victory in 2002 when he filled in for an injured Sterling Marlin at Charlotte. The Daytona win was a reminder of McMurray’s talent. Despite his numbers at plate races, he is one of the better drivers at Daytona and Talladega. He is always near the front of the pack and works the draft well.

McMurray’s greatest weakness is his lack of consistency. After his Daytona high point, he finished 26th or worse in 6 of the next 7 races. Any Chase notions were quickly dashed. He finished on the lead lap 17 times.

Entering the 2008 season, McMurray needs to find a comfort level in the CoT. His average finish in the old car was 20.7 compared to 24.0 in the CoT. Obviously the CoT is the exclusive car model of 2008, so McMurray and crew chief Larry Carter must impove their approach to the boxier CoT. The good news is that McMurray has all the tools to improve his status. He has the deep resources, equipment and information that Roush Racing provides. His driving talent is proven, especially at tracks like California, Martinsville, Texas and Charlotte. He also retains crew chief Carter. It’s that kind of consistency that can only help the #26 car. Can he make the Chase? He certainly has the potential, but it’s hard to see it happening. Look at the drivers that made the Chase last year. There are probably only three or four that he is potentially better than, and then include other drivers like Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne, and suddenly the Chase looks like a very crowded, and unlikely option for McMurray.

If you made a list of sentimental picks to win a race or have a successful season Bobby Labonte and the #43 car would probably each make the list. Since Labonte drives the #43 makes it an even easier call. It seems like everyone roots for good things from the historic Petty operation. Since joining the team in 2006, Labonte has driven the #43 car to heights not seen in years. The next step is a win. Is it possible in 2008?

If 2006 was a return to respectability for the #43, 2007 was about maintaining that progress. Labonte gained three points positions to finish 18th. It was his best finish since 2004, and Petty Enterprises best finish since 1999 when John Andretti finished 17th. In 2006 Labonte had 8 DNF’s including 4 for engine failures. The DNF number dropped to 3 in 2007 with zero engine-related DNF’s. Both figures are significant signs of progress for Petty Enterprises.

Labonte was again solid on short tracks and had several good runs. He also took to the CoT pretty well. His average CoT finish was 21.8. While his top 5’s and top 10’s declined from 2006, he managed to run more laps and finish more races. Labonte also scored one of the more popular Busch wins in 2007 with a slingshot pass of teammate Tony Stewart to win at Talladega. The move was indicative of his plate racing prowess. It’s also seen on the Cup side, although it’s not always seen in the results. That’s the nature of plate racing, though.

The biggest problem for the Petty cars is that they simply can’t run up front on a consistent basis. Labonte is still a capable driver, but without the tools and information that the larger teams have, his success is limited. Moving their shop closer to Charlotte, the capital of NASCAR, will help. Their talent pool for crew and shop members increases immensely. The dividends will show up, but probably not immediately in 2008.

The #43 team is beginning to have a Hendrick flavor. GM Robbie Loomis, former crew chief for Jeff Gordon, recruited former crewmate Jeff Meendering from Hendrick Motorsports to head up the #43 team. Meendering was the car chief for the #24 team. So once again Labonte begins the season with another new crew chief, his 5th in less than three years with PE. He has had relative success with each of the crew chiefs in his time at Petty, but rarely right off the bat. It has typically taken a few months for Labonte’s team to gel and that transition period has to be expected again. If Labonte and company aren’t ready to run for top 10’s right away, any Chase visions will evaporate.

Despite some disadvantages in the equipment, Labonte is still capable of running near the front at places like Bristol, Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix. Given how much he has accomplished at the Cup level, it’s sometimes easy to forget that he’s only 43. A top 20 points finish might be tougher to attain this year, but 5-6 top tens with 1 or 2 top five finishes is probably realistic. Can Labonte win a race for Petty? The competition for wins and top 5’s will be fierce. A lot of things will have to fall into place for Labonte and Meendering to visit Victory Lane. It’s not impossible at a place like Martinsville, but realistically it’s out of reach this year. The short answer is no, but with all of the moves PE is making, the answer could turn into a yes sooner than later.