Trouble in Turn2

Hello, my name is Glen. I’m from upstate New York. I throw a party once a year and invite all of my friends to come and hang out for the weekend. My political views are pretty balanced, sometimes I go to the left, other times I lean to the right. Not everyone is used to this balanced path and sometimes it can be frustrating for my friends with less experience at my parties. Alright, I admit it used to be fun playing tricks on these people and watching them spin and get caught in the quicksand, but I’ve matured in recent years. No more sand traps or food poisoning (sorry Tony), only good times and clean fun. Remember 2006? Both the Busch and Cup races featured fierce battles for the lead in the closing laps. So you’re all invited to join the party and hang out this weekend.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon had the dominant car and with 2 laps left he was apparently already dreaming of his Victory Lane kiss from Ingrid when he went wide on a turn allowing Tony Stewart to squeeze by for the win. Gordon wound up 9th. Of course no one cared about that on Monday morning because Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya rubbed each other’s faces after a wreck. Harvick was mad at Montoya for starting a wreck. Montoya was mad because it wasn’t his fault. So they both decided to engage in some quasi-fisticuffs.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champs: Ryan Newman Newman has three top tens in six tries. He is still a very good road course racer and won the 2005 Busch race. It might be a small stretch for a Champ pick, but this week’s options are limited.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer It’s not that Bowyer is a bad road racer, he has a 15.0 average finish at The Glen. It’s just that nearly every other top 12 driver is capable of a lot more.

Sleepers: Marcos Ambrose Kangaroo Meat is fast on road courses. The next step is showing he can avoid the ire of other top drivers and can finish the race in one piece.

Who Will Win?

Jeff Gordon is going to finish the job this year. His record on road courses one of the best in Cup history. And he won’t slip up at the end of the race this time.

How to Piss off a Cup Driver: Part I

Last week Rusty Wallace claimed Ryan Newman was fired by Penske instead of a mutual parting. Newman didn’t appreciate his former teammate/bicker buddy sticking his nose into Newman’s business. Wallace went on to say that Roger Penske didn’t appreciate Newman’s criticisms of the company and the team’s performance.

Let me take this moment to remind Rusty that Penske has been a second tier team for years (prior to Wallace’s retirement) and Newman hasn’t been a front runner since 2004. Whether Newman used the proper platform for his criticisms is one thing, but it’s hard to say the criticisms are misplaced. Tune in next week when Newman will reveal the real reason why Wallace was removed from the ESPN booth.

How to Piss off a Cup Driver: Part II

To the likely bemusement of the Diecast Dude, ESPN.com’s NASCAR crew made someone mad again. This time it was Martin Truex Jr when David Newton tried to report that Truex had signed a new contract with DEI. Truex’s frank, “That’s bullsh*t” response left little room for interpretation that the report was false. Truex added that the two sides were still negotiating. A word of advice to Newton (beyond reporting facts), when Truex gets pissed off, he can be quite literal.

Jimmie and Randy: Homies

As a Vikings fan I was fortunate to see Randy Moss’ greatest seasons so despite his occasional pouting and one bizarre traffic incident, I still have a certain fondness for Moss. He is not a bad guy and can be pretty funny. Take the time he scored the infamous Mooning Touchdown at Green Bay (which has it’s own partially-justified story behind it). He was fined $10,000 by the NFL and when a reporter asked how he paid his fine, Moss simply said, “Straight cash homey.” I still use that line all the time.

Now that Moss is involved with NASCAR I picture him paying all of the team’s bills with straight cash, homey. And that is exactly how I think he convinced Jimmie Johnson to drive Moss’ truck at Bristol.

Off the Beaten Path

On the personal side of this blog, things have been pretty busy. The second Pocono roughly marks the 2 year birthday of Trouble in Turn2. If it lasts another 2 years, I’ll be amazed.

If you are looking for something fresh for your iPod, try Eddie Vedder’s soundtrack for Into the Wild. Most of the songs are only 1 or 2 minutes, but they are really good. If you haven’t seen the movie, that too is excellent. It makes you want to go camping…for a year.

Have a good weekend. I will again be rating the Pocono race versus undesirable home improvement projects. This week it’s installing a dishwasher!

Until last year the second Pocono race fell prior to the Brickyard 400. Under that arrangement we all believed that Pocono served as a tuneup for the Brickyard. We could catch a glimpse of who might run well at one of NASCAR’s elite events. Nevermind the fact that only two drivers, Jeff Gordon (’98) and Bill Elliott (’02) have won a Pocono race and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. We wanted to believe that the second Pocono had a place of meaning on the schedule. Now it’s the week after the Brickyard, granting it slightly more importance than the Pro Bowl in relation to the Super Bowl. It’s a points paying race, but boy is it hard for a fan to get excited about it. The one advantage Pocono does have is that it promises to be feature the longest green flag runs in three weeks and tires shouldn’t be an issue. I realize I’m hard on Pocono, but I also admit I will watch with the same weekly interest and the hope for a good race. The spring race was one of the more exciting Pocono finishes in recent years in fact.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr won his first Cup pole since 2002 but couldn’t hold back Kurt Busch. Busch led 175 of 200 laps and cruised to an easy victory. The race paralleled the points battle between the two drivers that also saw Busch eclipse Earnhardt Jr for 12th place and the final Chase spot. The race was also notable for the absence of Robby Gordon. He was busy sitting in a corner on timeout thanks to his antics at the Montreal Busch race the day before.

Notes

AJ Allmendinger and Red Bull Racing are only one or two solid runs from cracking the top 35 in owner points. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the first two races of the season and was then replaced by Mike Skinner for the next six. After returning to the car at Talladega, Allmendinger has run very well and only sits 63 points shy of 35th place Scott Riggs.

Chad McCumbee will drive the #45 for Petty Enterprises this weekend. McCumbee has failed to qualify at Texas and Dover, but did finish 25th in a Pocono race last year while subbing for Kyle Petty. Petty will return to the car next week at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t look like Petty Enterprises is in a huge rush to get Petty back in the seat which is the strongest signal yet that Petty is nearing retirement. Whether it’s Kyle Petty’s decision or not, more time out of the car will allow him to devote more time and energy to greater things like the Victory Junction Gang Camp. Petty definitely has some very personal reasons for remaining behind the wheel of the #45 and if it NASCAR rides were based on merit over performance Petty would have a ride for life.

5 Drivers Who Like Pocono

Jimmie Johnson has two wins in 13 starts. He only has one finish worse than 15th in his career which includes 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Johnson has run well all summer and more wins should follow his Indy triumph (please don’t call it momentum).

Kurt Busch has seven top fives including 2 wins and four 2nd place finishes.

Denny Hamlin won his first two times at Pocono in 2006. Since then he has never finished worse than 6th and has led 300 laps in only five starts.

Tony Stewart owns the third best driver rating(102.2) over the last seven Pocono events. He led 14 laps at the June race and appeared set for a top 5 run but was caught speeding on pit row, pinning him a lap down and relegated to 35th.

Ryan Newman has won the pole twice, the race once and has five other top 5’s. His 13.9 average finish is also above average.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kurt Busch See above. No matter what the rest of Busch’s season looks like (and right now it looks bleak), he always finds a way to run well at the Triangle of Tedium.

Chump: Clint Bowyer Bowyer hasn’t run well at speedways all season and that trend will likely continue at Pocono.

Sleeper: AJ Allmendinger: Check out his recent speedway driver ratings: Pocono I(95.2), Michigan (79.7), Chicago (83.2), Indy (98.4). That’s a driver ready for some top ten finishes.

Check out One Bad Wheel for more Fantasy news and info on Sleepers.

Who Will Stay Awake Win?

Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s important to remind everyone of the cardinal rule of Fantasy sports: Don’t Outsmart Yourself. Over the past few weeks I have grown tired of choosing Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson to win races each week. So this past week for the Brickyard I decided to tab a darkhorse, Brian Vickers to win. Vickers finished 42nd with an engine failure. While Vickers has certainly impressed this year and is a front runner on speedways, Red Bull Racing isn’t quite ready for prime time and it cost me.

That means this week I’m sticking my hand back into the heavy favorites hat and pulling out a name.

In five races Denny Hamlin has a 130.4 driver rating. That is not the result of one fast car or lucking out. Denny Hamlin is simply awesome at Pocono. After a pit road mistake cost him the race at Indy, you can be sure that was a point of emphasis at the Gibbs shop this week.

It’s been a few weeks since I have done a roundup of the news stories in NASCAR. Apoligies for some of these nuggets being a little old, but it’s a slow news week anyway.

• DEI is reportedly looking for an investor. Apparently after saying no thanks to Dale Earnhardt Jr, Teresa Earnhardt is now looking for an investor in the company. It’s a sign of the times with more and more teams seeking additional capital to combat rising operating costs. It also makes you wonder whether the acquisition of Ginn Racing last year was a wise move. The good news is that I forwarded an email from a Nigerian friend to Teresa that should take care of the companies money worries.

• JJ Yeley and the #96 ran into some trouble last weekend for exchanging water bottles prior to the race. If there is one thing that is detrimental to stock car racing I would point my finger directly at water bottle infractions. It’s gone on for too long. Apparently there was some question about whether the team was attempting some funny business with weight in the water bottle during the inspection process. Filling the water bottle with something heavy during inspection and then swapping it out with a lighter material would allow the car to go faster. Instead of running in the 30’s like normal, they figured they could at least run 24th.

• Earlier this week Ryan Newman notified his boss, Roger Penske, that he would not be back next year. According to reports, Newman began his speech very well. His first sentence was fast, concise and well delivered. Unfortunately he meandered after the first sentence and it caused the entire speech to be less than impressive.

  Newman will be a free agent, for about a week. Then he will likely announce he is joining Stewart-Haas. Lost in some of the talk about how Stewart will do without Greg Zipadelli is that Haas does have a few good crew chiefs in house. Bootie Barker and Matt Borland are both good crew chiefs with engineering backgrounds. It was with Borland that Newman won 13 of his 14 career races. Barker is also a highly regarded crew chief in the garage and while Stewart will probably hire someone else for his team, Barker is far from the worst Plan B.

• GM is reining back their manufacturer support of NASCAR teams as part of a plan to cut $10 billion in spending for the company. It’s not surprising and is simple economics. Sadly some yahoos fans will still blame Toyota for running domestic manufacturers from the sport. Toyota shouldn’t apologize for being profitable, and if they decide to spend their money in NASCAR when others can’t afford to, that too is their prerogative. While the announcement is bad news, it will not signal the demise of Chevy in the sport.

• The weekly Nationwide recap finds Kyle Busch living a charmed life as he discusses the Gibbs domination of the series:
  

  It’s everything, you know, you can make an engine look exceptional if you’ve got a car that goes through the corner as well as it does, and I blew by a lot of guys in the corners, not necessarily just down the straightaway tonight. So you know we’ve got good bodies, we’ve got great chassis, and you know we’ve got front-end stuff that’s working well, we’ve got rear-end springs and stuff that just works and track bar height – mean it’s everything, it’s a whole package, and that’s what you’ve got to have in these series in order to run well. You’ve gotta have the whole package.

  You can listen to audio of this interview plus Denny Hamlin at Nationwide’s website.

• This week Jay Busbee at Yahoo (which is very different than a lowercase yahoo) breached the subject of racism in NASCAR. It was a very interesting, and thoughtful dialog on a sensitive subject in the sport. NASCAR sometimes gets a reputation for being a redneck sport, and while progress has been made, things like the Mauricia Grant litigation took over. I’m no historian, but didn’t the pilgrims flee the tyranny in England in search of a land where they could play Whiffle ball in peace?

• I try my best to avoid political discussion on this blog, but sometimes I see something that is just too much. John McCain sounds like a decent guy with some good ideas, but I’m not sure about him anymore:
  

  At a press availability today, John McCain expressed concern about relations between Russia and a country that hasn’t existed for quite some time. According to a rough pool report transcript, he said:

  “I was concerned about a couple of steps that the Russian government took in the last several days. One was reducing the energy supplies to Czechoslovakia. Apparently that is in reaction to the Czech’s agreement with us concerning missile defense, and again some of the Russian now announcement they are now retargeting new targets, something they abandoned at the end of the Cold War, is also a concern.”

  Czechoslovakia, of course, split into two separate countries in 1993.

  As someone that takes a great deal of unnecessary pride in being 25% Czech, John McCain is officially on notice. Maruskas everywhere are not amused.

• If you’re looking for some good summer music off the beaten path, check out Iron & Wine. He has a (very) mellow, acoustic sound with a Southern flavor.

Enjoy the weekend. Remember, there is no race on Sunday so go play outside. Or see the Dark Knight, which could be the best movie of the summer. Me, I’m going to skip my Sunday afternoon nap. That way I can double-up in two weeks for the Pocono race. Whatever you do, have a good weekend.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. We’ll begin with the 2002 class.

2002: Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman 47 combined wins

What the class lacked in quantity was easily made up for in quality. Despite moderate results in the Busch Series, both Johnson and Newman both became Cup stars almost immediately. They both won races as rookies, and while Newman earned Rookie of the Year, Johnson actually had the better year, winning more races (3 to 1) and a higher finish in the standings (3rd). Both drivers scored 20+ top tens in their rookie seasons, proving their skill at the Cup level. 2003 they each debunked the myth of the Sophomore Slump. Newman won 8 races and driver of the year while Johnson finished third in the final standings.

Despite winning a season high 8 races in 2003, Newman has tailed off as a championship contender. Since 2003 he has only won 4 races in four and a half seasons. Although he has not reached the elite heights of NASCAR (due to a variety of reasons), Newman is a very solid driver. In six full seasons he has averaged 2 wins, 9.8 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. Plenty of drivers would take those numbers. Despite those numbers most fans would agree that Newman is talented enough to achieve even more. His point standings in the first four years were 6th, 6th, 7th and 6th, but the last two seasons he has missed the Chase. Among his accomplishments are 43 poles, which already ranks 11th on the all-time list in only six plus seasons. He also won the 2008 Daytona 500 in dramatic fashion.

If Jimmie Johnson was an unknown entering NASCAR, he has blossomed into one of the top three drivers in the sport. Johnson has won 34 races, including a Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, and the season title in 2006 and 2007. He has also never finished worse than 5th in the standings. His average stats for his first five full seasons are 5.5 wins, 14.3 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. He has also won at 15 of the 22 Cup tracks, proving his versatility. He and crew chief Chad Knaus have formed one of the longest driver-crew chief combinations and are widely regarding as one of the top pairings in the sport.

Verdict: Obviously it’s easier to assess this class because it’s older. In only 6+ seasons, Johnson is already one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport and could already begin filling out some of the details on his Hall of Fame application. It wasn’t a sure thing in 2002, however. Based on his Busch record, Johnson was a risky hire. Newman began his career with a flourish but has since struggled a bit, although that isn’t entirely his fault. As a class the two drivers have combined to win 47 races and have made the Chase 6 out of a possible 8 times. Overall this class produced one elite driver and another good driver. That’s a pretty good success rate.

Have you ever had a friend that no matter what they do can’t seem to get out of their own way? Maybe they get a raise at work, but then blow it on a new TV they can’t afford? You can’t help but slap your forehead and cover your eyes. In NASCAR that friend is Dodge. For every triumph, there seems to be self-inflicted Dodge has won three of the last six Cup races. When you throw in Kasey Kahne’s All-Star win, that’s 4 in the last seven, which is more than the manufacturer won in all of 2007. On paper, things look pretty good for Dodge and its teams. Of course reality tells a different story, and to anyone that has followed NASCAR in recent years knows how self-sabotaging the Dodge teams can be. Even during high spots, there are more problems than positives.

The big news this week is that Chip Ganassi is putting the #40 car up on cinder blocks for the rest of 2008, meaning Dario Franchitti’s Cup career will also see weeds and grass sprout around it while it sits in the backyard at Ganassi’s shop. The lack of sponsorship was the final blow for the car. While Franchitti entered NASCAR with great credentials like an Indy 500 win and an IRL championship (not to mention the Judd marketing factor), it’s pretty easy to see why companies passed on Ganassi. Their NASCAR teams stink. One Cup win since 2002, no driver has ever made the Chase and since 2005 no driver has scored more than 10 top 10’s in a season. In the middle of 2005 Ganassi announced tentative plans to expand to four cars. It never happened because Jamie McMurray successfully voided his contract and moved to Roush-Fenway, but at the time Ganassi did have enough sponsorship for all four teams. Of course that was before the mortgage crisis (remember Home 1-2-3?) and the overall economic slowdown. It’s a little surprising Franchitti was willing to come to NASCAR despite the lack of funding.

In 2006 Kasey Kahne won a series high 6 races and made the Chase for Evernham Motorsports. At the same time teammate Jeremy Mayfield struggled to stay inside the top 35, was ultimately fired in midseason and threatened legal action. The ugliness only intensified with the inappropriate relationship between Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker. That ultimately played a part in the team’s abysmal 2007 season where the team realized halfway through that their season was wasted due using incorrect data to build their cars. Things are just now returning to normal, almost a year and a half later.

How about Penske Racing? In the summer of 2005 they signed one of the biggest free agents, Kurt Busch, to replace the retiring Rusty Wallace. It was the perfect driver to build upon a successful 2005 season that saw two of the three Penske cars make the Chase. Instead Penske chopped the #77 team (not due to sponsorship) and contracted back to two teams. To make things worse, the Penske teams spent the majority of the offseason and the spring trying to run the older Intrepid instead of the current Charger model. The result was-you guessed it-a wasted season. After two seasons of two cars the #77 finally returned to the track this year, but is again struggling as a new team. Had it been running continuously, the team might be a lot further along and more competitive with the other top teams at Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford.

All of the teams at Dodge (don’t forget Petty Enterprises, who is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant) have struggled in the last five years. It’s fitting given the unstable nature of Dodge. Daimler sold the company in 2007 and they are still struggling to compete. Things could only get worse for Dodge on the competition side. With factory support an unknown quantity, there is no real hope for drastic improvement on the track. And based on some of the rumors, top drivers like Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya could have other opportunities with different teams next year as well. While the wins might increase with Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch, the overall picture in the Dodge camp is pretty gloomy.

NASCAR’s Silly Season is kind of like a big game of Jenga. The year begins with everything in a solid block but then slowly a piece gets pulled from the bottom and moved to the top. After a while a lot of holes appear, the formation begins to sway until all it takes is removing one more piece and every block in the structure is affected. Right now the entire Jenga puzzle is teetering on a few major moves, none more important than what Tony Stewart decides to do in 2009. Once that decision is announced (my guess it’s already been made) the aftershock will affect at least 10 drivers.

Last year the pieces were more sequential. Dale Earnhardt Jr, clearly the top free agent in NASCAR, made his decision, then Kyle Busch moved to Gibbs, Mark Martin slid into the #8 car and JJ Yeley moved to Hall of Fame Racing. It was more like a draft where you took the best player left on the board. This year is much more complex because drivers are looking for slightly different things. Stewart does not need to upgrade, he’s already with the top Cup team. He is looking for a place with ownership possibilities. Mark Martin is rumored to be looking for one more shot a the title belt. Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman are looking for the best long term shot at winning races and championships. There is at least one new team, Richard Childress’ 4th team that should attract a top driver. This variety of goals makes it muddier than last year.

It really looks like Stewart is going to leave Gibbs Racing, which automatically opens up one of the elite rides in the sport. Unless Stewart goes to RCR’s 4th ride, he will take someone else’s job. If he becomes an owner, that could affect the other drivers in that company as well. Would he be able to attract other high profile free agent drivers to his new company? A lot depends on where Stewart goes. If he decides to take the best ride available, he would probably head to Hendrick Motorsports’ #5 car. Based on rumors, that would throw a wrench in Martin’s plans for a full time run in 2009 with Hendrick.

Whatever happens, Casey Mears is out of the #5 car. It looks like it’s true and isn’t a big surprise. Like his old teammate Jamie McMurray discovered when he joined Roush-Fenway, an upgrade to elite equipment doesn’t necessarily mean an upgrade in success. Mears had his best Cup season in 2007, but it simply is not good enough for what the Hendrick cars are capable of. Now, ironically, it looks like Mears will be competing with McMurray for the whatever second-tier options are available.

If Martin exits DEI, that leaves a huge void. Will the Army be willing to re-sign with DEI knowing that Aric Almirola can’t match Martin’s on-track success, merchandise sales or visibility? Martin Truex Jr is not signed and appears willing to see what else is available. If he leaves, then DEI would take a very big dive. Sure Paul Menard, Almirola and Smith are young, but that doesn’t equate to immense talent or success. DEI is also already struggling to fully sponsor four teams, and that’s including Menard’s essentially personal sponsorship. What happens if Army and Truex leave? It’s hard to see Bass Pro Shops wanting to hang around either.

If Martin is indeed planning on a one year run for the title that means the #5 car would then have another new driver in 2010 (likely Brad Keselowski or Landon Cassill). That’s four different drivers in four years. Is Hendrick willing to do that? Is a longtime sponsor like Kelloggs willing to do that? Would Martin really have a serious shot at a title run?

There will be a lot more people, sponsors and teams affected by what happens in the next two months. It’s a good thing this post isn’t printed on real paper because by next week when everything I just wrote proves false you would have to rip it up anyway.

Other Thoughts off the beaten path

The Euro 2008 tourney wraps up on Sunday. Germany plays Spain. Overall the tournament has been fantastic. Games have had dramatic late goals, great individual skill and a welcome absence of boring, defensive soccer. The final should be another good game and with the potential for rain in New England, do yourself a favor and work the “previous channel” button on your remote.

I haven’t seen any movies lately (it’s too nice outside), but I have taken a peak at the summer movies. Here’s a few recommendations.

Alan Tays of the Palm Beach Post wrote something about Momentum. He must not be a very good writer to agree with me and think that Kasey Kahne and the #9 team worked hard for their wins. After all, it’s a proven fact that Kasey Kahne won three races because the fans love him and bestowed confidence upon him.

Enjoy the weekend and give a big bearhug to your father.

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

Almost every driver has that one track where they just can’t seem to win. It’s like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. No matter how well the approach is, how many different tactics he tried, it always ended with Lucy pulling the ball away. \Here’s a list of ten drivers still waiting for the big breakthrough at different tracks. The list features a lot of domination in the form of fruitless laps (laps led without winning), some close calls and plenty of heartbreak.

• Ryan Newman at Lowe’s In 14 career starts Newman has started from the pole times, scored three top five finishes and five top tens. He has also led 243 laps, the most of any active driver without a win at Lowe’s. He nearly won the 2007 fall race but a flat tire with three laps left sent him into the wall.

• Sterling Marlin at Short Tracks You would think someone with the credentials of Sterling Marlin would be able to score at least one short track win in a career spanning 32 years and 162 short track starts. Marlin has led 1221 laps and finished in the top five 12 times, but never as the top dog.

• Jeff Gordon at Texas-Gordon has 5 top fives and 326 laps led in15 career Texas starts. Texas and Homestead are the only Cup tracks where Gordon has been shut out of Victory Lane. It’s still hard to rank too high on the agony chart when you have won virtually race at almost every track on the circuit.

• Kurt Busch at a road course Busch has led 99 laps at the two Cup road courses, Sonoma and Watkins Glen. That is the highest number for all drivers without a win to show for it. He has finished 3rd, 4th and 5th at Sonoma. While he doesn’t have a top five at Watkins Glen, he did win the 2006 pole and lead 38 laps before getting caught entering the pits before they were open, ruining his chance at a win.

• Denny Hamlin at Richmond He only has five Cup starts at his home track, but has already seen his share of disappointment. He has two poles, two top fives a second, third and sixth place and led 448 laps but no champagne. He won the 2006 pole for the fall race, but then lost a cylinder. Then this year dominated the race only to cut a tire in the final 20 laps.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr at Martinsville 748 laps led and seven top five finishes in 17 career starts. Junior is still waiting for that first grandfather clock.

• Matt Kenseth at Chicago For a track without much history, Matt Kenseth has had several close calls at Chicago. In 2005 he dominated the race leading 176 laps but was snookered by Dale Earnhardt Jr on the final pit stop. In 2006 he again dominated leading 112 laps but was bumped and spun by Jeff Gordon with four laps left. He finished 2nd again last year to Tony Stewart.

• Jeremy Mayfield at almost everywhere Of active drivers, Mayfield has led the most laps that didn’t result in a win at Bristol and Darlington, Rockingham and the second most at Dover. With his recent struggles, it’s easy to forget that Mayfield was a pretty good driver in his prime.

• Tony Stewart at Talladega Eight second place finishes at the Alabama track show how close Smoke has come. In 2005 he was narrowly beat by Dale Jarrett when the caution flag flew on the final lap. He has also led the last nine Talladega races and 244 total laps in his career. At least his consolation was a Nationwide win this spring.

• Mark Martin at Daytona It’s hard to tell if Martin hates Daytona because he can’t seem to win there, or he can’t win because he hates it. Feelings aside, he nearly pulled off the feel good win last year before Kevin Harvick was declared the winner when the official sat on the caution flag. In 46 career starts, Martin has nine top 5’s, 16 top 10’s, 241 laps led, and a best finish of 3rd.

So what do you think? Who will be the first one off this list? Maybe Sterling Marlin will crush at Bristol.