Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005.

Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr, Reed Sorenson, JJ Yeley, David Stremme, David Gilliland. Total wins: 6

The rookie class of 2006 was labeled as a special group and almost three years later that still holds true, but maybe not to the degree originally expected. The top three drivers of the class all made the 2007 Chase, won Cup races and appear set to compete at the top level for the next decade. The rest are still finding their way.

When Denny Hamlin was given a tryout in the #11 car at the end of 2005, it looked like nothing more than a placeholder while Joe Gibbs Racing could find another driver. Then Hamlin scored three top tens and won a pole in seven races. He smoothly slid into the #11 car on a fulltime basis for 2006 and immediately took off. While some drivers and analysts could see his talent, no one expected him to adjust to the Cup level so smoothly.

Right out of the gate, he won the Bud Shootout holding off teammate Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr, both shrewd plate racers. At this time he hadn’t even won a Busch race prior to his promotion to Cup. He went on to win both Pocono races. On the strength of 4 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s he made the Chase field as a rookie. During the Chase he scored 4 more top 5’s to stay in contention until the latter stages of the Chase. His final numbers were impressive. He finished 3rd in the final standings, had 2 wins, 8 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s and easily won Rookie of the Year.

He followed up in 2007 with another win and a Chase berth. He spent the majority of the first 26 races in 2nd place in the standings and had numerous chances to win races. A disappointing Chase took some of the luster out of the season, but it was still an impressive sophomore season.

So far in 2008 Hamlin has won a race at Martinsville, scored 6 top 5’s and led more laps(696) through 21 races than all of 2005. A Chase spot appears sewn up and thanks to the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing builds the cars Hamlin drives he has a chance to win a Cup title in the coming years.

After winning back to back Busch championships in 2004 and 2005, Martin Truex Jr was more than ready for the Cup circuit. He was widely picked as the favorite for Rookie of the Year and quick success was assumed by almost everyone. So it was a little surprising when Truex struggled to an 19th place finish and failed to compete for wins. He had a few nice results scattered amongst a lot of crashes and poor finishes. His final numbers, 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s fell well short of expectations but by the end of the year he and rookie crew chief Kevin Manion were showing signs of figuring out the Cup game.

In 2007 Truex finally broke through. After he spent the first quarter of the season alternating between top 10 finishes and tough luck crashes, he finally caught a break and won the Nextel Open exhibition race. Two weeks later he cruised to his first Cup win at Dover. That win was one bookend of a hot summer that propelled him to a spot in the Chase. He finished with 1 win, 7 top 5’s and 14 top 10’s. While Truex hasn’t vaulted to stardom his DEI equipment also tends to be subpar. Truex is a solid all around driver and could be a big lure on the free agency market in 2009.

Clint Bowyer didn’t have the hype of Martin Truex Jr or Reed Sorenson or the overnight success of Denny Hamlin, but he did prove his toughness as a Cup rookie. Bowyer jumped out of the gates with a surprising 6th place finish in the Daytona 500. He hung inside the top 20 in points all season and registered a respectable 4 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s. He also hinted at his strength with strong runs at flat, short tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

In 2007 Bowyer continued his ascent and locked down a spot in the Chase. He also won his first career Cup race at Loudon, in dominant fashion. Bowyer finisheda surprising third in the Chase standings and scored a total of 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s. 2008 began well with a win at Richmond and is again in the hunt for a Chase spot. Another trait that has developed in Bowyer’s style is his ability to avoid DNF’s. Aside from 4 his rookie season, Bowyer has finished 100% of the races in the last two seasons. It helps offset his lack of laps at the front of the pack.

As a 19 year old Reed Sorenson was already running a full Busch Series schedule and winning 2 races. After a fourth place points finish, he was quickly promoted to the Cup Series to drive Chip Ganassi’s #41 car for the 2006 season. As expected for a 20 year old rookie, Sorenson’s season was filled with inconsistency. One week would see him crash early and finish in the 40’s and then follow it up with a top ten run. Despite only 1 top 5 and 5 top 10’s, it was clear that the young driver had talent.

Maybe the most surprising thing about Sorenson’s rookie season was that it was his best year to date. 2007 was expected to build on his rookie effort, but that improvement didn’t come. While his peripheral numbers (3 top 5’s, 6 top 10’s) were slightly better, his average finish, DNF’s and laps led were all worse. 2008 has been an even greater struggle. Through 22 races Sorenson sits in 30th place in the points and has mustered only two top 10’s and has ten sub-30 finishes. Despite the struggles, and they are not all Sorenson’s fault, he is still only 22 and talent doesn’t evaporate. Looking back on the class in 5-10 years may still portray a different story for Sorenson.

JJ Yeley had an impressive resume in sprint cars, winning the USAC triple crown. He moved to the Busch Series and then landed a Cup ride with Joe Gibbs Racing thanks in part to a personal recommendation from Tony Stewart. The general scouting report on Yeley was that he was talented but raw. He displayed some of his talent (1 top 5, 6 top 10’s, 1 pole) and a lot of the rawness (28 sub-30’s, 11 DNF’s) in his first two years with Gibbs. When Gibbs had the chance to sign Kyle Busch, Yeley was the obvious cut.

He was still considered a good prospect at the Cup level and signed with Hall of Fame Racing for 2008. Unfortunately Yeley could only manage 1 top 5 in 17 starts, lost his spot in the top 35 and failed to qualify for 4 races. That led to his firing from the #96 car after 22 races.

After several seasons of mild success in the Busch Series, David Stremme got his big break in 2006. Chip Ganassi promoted him to the #40 seat to replace Sterling Marlin. After five races Stremme was sitting on the outside of the top 35. This forced the team to switch to survival mode and simply qualify for races and essentially washed away Stremme’s season. He did manage to return to the top 35, but didn’t score a top ten and finished a disappointing 33rd in the final standings.

2007 brought a fresh start for Stremme and the #40 team. Stremme finished in the top 20 in five of the first six races and included his first Cup top ten. The summer wasn’t as kind and Stremme could only manage three top tens in total and suffered 14 sub 30 finishes. He was released after the season to make way for the incoming Dario Franchitti.

After a chain of events in August of 2006, the Robert Yates #38 car was suddenly vacant. Enter David Gilliland, who was a complete unknown only months earlier. After winning the Kentucky Busch race in an underfunded car Gilliland was suddenly a star in the making. While his truncated rookie season was a series of wrecks and backup cars, Gilliland did have a handful of promising runs. He won the pole at Talladega and finished 15th and then had two other nice runs at Atlanta and Phoenix.

He then won the pole for the Daytona 500 the following spring and scored his first top ten in the process. While Gilliland went on to show some improvement in 2007, it was sometimes hard to tell whether he was struggling as a driver or Yates no longer had the cars to keep up.

In 2008 Gilliland has displayed more progress. He has cut down on the wrecks and has scored ten top 20’s in 22 starts. While it’s doubtful he will become a superstar at the Cup level he looks set to be a solid driver capable of the occasional top 5 or win.

Verdict: Hamlin is already a star while Bowyer and Truex have the potential to challenge for wins and Chase berths. Sorenson’s potential is still there if he can put an ugly 2008 behind him. Yeley, Gilliland and Stremme will probably never be drivers that teams are built around but can certainly make a living shuttling between the Cup and Nationwide series.

Hello, my name is Glen. I’m from upstate New York. I throw a party once a year and invite all of my friends to come and hang out for the weekend. My political views are pretty balanced, sometimes I go to the left, other times I lean to the right. Not everyone is used to this balanced path and sometimes it can be frustrating for my friends with less experience at my parties. Alright, I admit it used to be fun playing tricks on these people and watching them spin and get caught in the quicksand, but I’ve matured in recent years. No more sand traps or food poisoning (sorry Tony), only good times and clean fun. Remember 2006? Both the Busch and Cup races featured fierce battles for the lead in the closing laps. So you’re all invited to join the party and hang out this weekend.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon had the dominant car and with 2 laps left he was apparently already dreaming of his Victory Lane kiss from Ingrid when he went wide on a turn allowing Tony Stewart to squeeze by for the win. Gordon wound up 9th. Of course no one cared about that on Monday morning because Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya rubbed each other’s faces after a wreck. Harvick was mad at Montoya for starting a wreck. Montoya was mad because it wasn’t his fault. So they both decided to engage in some quasi-fisticuffs.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champs: Ryan Newman Newman has three top tens in six tries. He is still a very good road course racer and won the 2005 Busch race. It might be a small stretch for a Champ pick, but this week’s options are limited.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer It’s not that Bowyer is a bad road racer, he has a 15.0 average finish at The Glen. It’s just that nearly every other top 12 driver is capable of a lot more.

Sleepers: Marcos Ambrose Kangaroo Meat is fast on road courses. The next step is showing he can avoid the ire of other top drivers and can finish the race in one piece.

Who Will Win?

Jeff Gordon is going to finish the job this year. His record on road courses one of the best in Cup history. And he won’t slip up at the end of the race this time.

Until last year the second Pocono race fell prior to the Brickyard 400. Under that arrangement we all believed that Pocono served as a tuneup for the Brickyard. We could catch a glimpse of who might run well at one of NASCAR’s elite events. Nevermind the fact that only two drivers, Jeff Gordon (’98) and Bill Elliott (’02) have won a Pocono race and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. We wanted to believe that the second Pocono had a place of meaning on the schedule. Now it’s the week after the Brickyard, granting it slightly more importance than the Pro Bowl in relation to the Super Bowl. It’s a points paying race, but boy is it hard for a fan to get excited about it. The one advantage Pocono does have is that it promises to be feature the longest green flag runs in three weeks and tires shouldn’t be an issue. I realize I’m hard on Pocono, but I also admit I will watch with the same weekly interest and the hope for a good race. The spring race was one of the more exciting Pocono finishes in recent years in fact.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr won his first Cup pole since 2002 but couldn’t hold back Kurt Busch. Busch led 175 of 200 laps and cruised to an easy victory. The race paralleled the points battle between the two drivers that also saw Busch eclipse Earnhardt Jr for 12th place and the final Chase spot. The race was also notable for the absence of Robby Gordon. He was busy sitting in a corner on timeout thanks to his antics at the Montreal Busch race the day before.

Notes

AJ Allmendinger and Red Bull Racing are only one or two solid runs from cracking the top 35 in owner points. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the first two races of the season and was then replaced by Mike Skinner for the next six. After returning to the car at Talladega, Allmendinger has run very well and only sits 63 points shy of 35th place Scott Riggs.

Chad McCumbee will drive the #45 for Petty Enterprises this weekend. McCumbee has failed to qualify at Texas and Dover, but did finish 25th in a Pocono race last year while subbing for Kyle Petty. Petty will return to the car next week at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t look like Petty Enterprises is in a huge rush to get Petty back in the seat which is the strongest signal yet that Petty is nearing retirement. Whether it’s Kyle Petty’s decision or not, more time out of the car will allow him to devote more time and energy to greater things like the Victory Junction Gang Camp. Petty definitely has some very personal reasons for remaining behind the wheel of the #45 and if it NASCAR rides were based on merit over performance Petty would have a ride for life.

5 Drivers Who Like Pocono

Jimmie Johnson has two wins in 13 starts. He only has one finish worse than 15th in his career which includes 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Johnson has run well all summer and more wins should follow his Indy triumph (please don’t call it momentum).

Kurt Busch has seven top fives including 2 wins and four 2nd place finishes.

Denny Hamlin won his first two times at Pocono in 2006. Since then he has never finished worse than 6th and has led 300 laps in only five starts.

Tony Stewart owns the third best driver rating(102.2) over the last seven Pocono events. He led 14 laps at the June race and appeared set for a top 5 run but was caught speeding on pit row, pinning him a lap down and relegated to 35th.

Ryan Newman has won the pole twice, the race once and has five other top 5’s. His 13.9 average finish is also above average.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kurt Busch See above. No matter what the rest of Busch’s season looks like (and right now it looks bleak), he always finds a way to run well at the Triangle of Tedium.

Chump: Clint Bowyer Bowyer hasn’t run well at speedways all season and that trend will likely continue at Pocono.

Sleeper: AJ Allmendinger: Check out his recent speedway driver ratings: Pocono I(95.2), Michigan (79.7), Chicago (83.2), Indy (98.4). That’s a driver ready for some top ten finishes.

Check out One Bad Wheel for more Fantasy news and info on Sleepers.

Who Will Stay Awake Win?

Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s important to remind everyone of the cardinal rule of Fantasy sports: Don’t Outsmart Yourself. Over the past few weeks I have grown tired of choosing Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson to win races each week. So this past week for the Brickyard I decided to tab a darkhorse, Brian Vickers to win. Vickers finished 42nd with an engine failure. While Vickers has certainly impressed this year and is a front runner on speedways, Red Bull Racing isn’t quite ready for prime time and it cost me.

That means this week I’m sticking my hand back into the heavy favorites hat and pulling out a name.

In five races Denny Hamlin has a 130.4 driver rating. That is not the result of one fast car or lucking out. Denny Hamlin is simply awesome at Pocono. After a pit road mistake cost him the race at Indy, you can be sure that was a point of emphasis at the Gibbs shop this week.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004.

The 2005 rookie class only features two members, Kyle Busch and Travis Kvapil. Busch has been a hot prospect since he was a teenager and is now a bona fide superstar thanks to his big year in 2008. Meanwhile Kvapil has taken a more indirect path to the Cup series but looks to have finally established himself as a skilled Cup driver.

Kyle Busch made his NASCAR debut at 16 in the Truck Series in 2001. NASCAR created an age limit for their top three series and Busch was forced to wait until he turned 18 before he could compete again. If not for the rule he may have made his Cup debut prior to his 18th birthday. Upon his return it didn’t take long to stand out. He won 5 races in the Busch Series in 2004 and finished 2nd in the points.

In 2005 he moved to the #5 car at Hendrick Motorsports, replacing the retiring legend Terry Labonte. He won two races and became the youngest driver to win a Cup race at age 19. Despite typical rookie struggles, Busch scored 9 top 5’s, 13 top 10’s and finished 20th in the overall standings. He won Rookie of the Year in a class of two.

In 2006 and 2007 Busch didn’t ascend to stardom but did win two races and made the Chase playoff field in both seasons. He also had his share of controversy with other drivers due to his attitude and occasional bouts of immaturity. He left Hendrick Motorsports after 2007 to make way for Dale Earnhardt Jr and he landed a ride with Joe Gibbs Racing. Whether it was the move or simply Busch’s experience catching up with his talent, 2008 has been a banner year. Through July Busch has
seven wins and leads the point standings.

Travis Kvapil won the 2003 Truck Series title but didn’t land a Cup ride until 2005. Roger Penske hired him to drive their third car, the #77. In hindsight it was an exercise in futility. Kvapil did not have the same equipment as his teammates, Ryan Newman and Rusty Wallace, and he struggled all season. He managed only 2 top tens and teetered on the edge of the top 35 in points.

After the 2005 season the #77 team was contracted and Kvapil was left to scramble for another ride. The best he could manage was with Cal Wells’ fledging PPI Racing team. The team hadn’t been competitive since 2003 and Kvapil again had little chance of success. Kvapil didn’t finish better than 19th and struggled to simply make races. The team folded after the 2006 seson relegating Kvapil to the Truck Series again.

After a successful truck season Kvapil was hired by Yates Racing to drive the #28 car. Teamed with crew chief Todd Parrott, the duo has found speed in the car. Kvapil has three top tens through 20 races, proving he is a capable driver given quality equipment.

Verdict: Kyle Busch is one of the top stars in NASCAR and has an excellent chance at his first Cup title this year. Kvapil took a while to find a decent team but has displayed his skill. It’s difficult to rate the class very high in comparison to other deeper classes. In ten years Busch may wind up as one of the two or three best drivers to emerge since Tony Stewart was a rookie in 1999. that would probably reflect well on the class too.

Let’s face it, NASCAR has had a rough 2008. They introduced a new car that no one really likes, are facing a lawsuit that apparently has legs, are facing shrinking attendance and now they see their second biggest race of the season become a debacle. They could use a positive turn. The easiest way to win fans back is to make the sport even more appealing to fans. With my unsolicited help, here are a few places where NASCAR could make up for some of the low points of 2008. [I realize not all of these ideas will be instant hits. In fact some of these ideas lack details, vision and may even seem half-baked and ridiculous. But this is NASCAR we’re talking about. Their pet project, the CoT, was rather poorly executed, but it’s on the track every week.]

• NASCAR grants Robby Gordon one free helmet toss per season without fear of penalty. Tell me you wouldn’t tune in on any Sunday and say, “Is this the week Robby loses it?”

• Hold a Throwback Race. Retro paint schemes, 1949 prices, and all of the drivers will assume cool nicknames like Fireball, Smokey, Ralph, Red and Crawfish.

• Kasey Kahne Kissing Booth. No explanation needed. Kasey’s sacrifice for the greater good would be repaid with the annual Kasey Kahne Blistex500400 at Pocono.

• Begin a dialog with other tire manufacturers. This is not to say that ditching Goodyear would solve the problems but listening to what other ideas and solutions are out there can’t hurt. Plus nothing counters complacency like competition or the threat of competition.

• With NASCAR’s financial backing, tracks can offer partial refunds or discounts on future races in the event of fiascoes like the Brickyard. It would be costly for NASCAR, but not as costly as having hundreds of thousands of dissatisfied fans.

• Build a football field in the Talladega infield. During the fall race NASCAR could partner with the SEC for a Racing and Running Weekend. Bruton Smith had the idea for Bristol a few years ago, but the Talladega race falls in the heart of college football season. The NHL has pulled off outdoor games with great success, this is NASCAR’s chance to capitalize on the perfect cross-promotion. What NASCAR fan isn’t a college football fan? Which leads to the next point…

• Have an IRL/NASCAR companion weekend. Now that open wheel racing is again consolidated in the US, NASCAR can no longer dismiss its status and second rate. The Truck Series already shares select dates with IRL, but it’s time for NASCAR and IRL to realize the benefit of their combined efforts. That kind of publicity would be good for motorsports as a whole (of course NASAR faces the risk of IRL putting on a better show).

• Continue to revamp the Nationwide Series. NASCAR’s second tier series needs a new identity. Nationwide entering as the new title sponsor has helped, but the governing body needs to continue to find more ways to create a distinct series that isn’t just a place for the Cup stars to run rampant. This is especially important during a recession when many families can’t afford to go to two races in a weekend.

• Impound one engineer from each multi-car team, sequester them at NASCAR’s research center in Charlotte and lock the door until they find a way to make the CoT drive like a real racecar.

I won’t go so far as saying that the Indianapolis disaster should serve as a wakeup call for NASCAR. Overall things are going well, but lots of fans are growing tired of the way things are headed. High prices amid a recession only increase that sentiment. The biggest key is to appeal directly to the fans and find fresh ways to do that.

It’s Indy time for the Cup guys. That means speeds over 200 mph, a huge purse (last year was over $8 million) and tight racing. With not a lot of room to pass in the corners, horsepower on the straightaways is a driver’s best friend. Dale Earnhardt Jr participated in the recent Goodyear tire test and he also quelled concern about tires.

Tire wear was a big issue. When we first started out, you recall last year and in years past, when we first get there, we go to the cords in about five laps. It takes the whole weekend to build the rubber up on the track before that goes away. We did that again, and we found a tire that will work with another tire that lasted quite a bit longer and ran just as quick.

Because Indianapolis is such a large track, tires can wear out quickly. It’s compounded by the fact that the Trucks and Nationwide cars don’t see the track. That also minimizes the amount of rubber buildup. The fact that Earnhardt is happy with the durability and quality of the tire is a good thing for the level of racing and safety.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr dominated the early stages of the race but blew an engine. It was one of three engine failures in the final seven races before the Chase, completely souring his chances to make the Chase or win a race. Tony Stewart took advantage and went on to cruise to an easy win. The win also produced two of the more memorable quotes from Stewart. While closing in on Kevin Harvick, Stewart casually uttered “Here kitty kitty” over the team radio. Then after his win he swore in Victory Lane on live TV. In a post Janet Jackson-FCC crackdown society, Stewart was fined. It didn’t help that it was ESPN’s first broadcast of their new television deal.

Notes

• In the short history at the Brickyard Jeff Gordon owns almost all of the records. 4 wins, 11 top 10’s, 433 laps led, and three poles are all tops.

• In 9 Indy starts Dave Blaney has never led a lap. Every driver with more than 4 starts has led at least one lap.

• Chevy has won the last five races and nine of 14 overall at Indianapolis. Dodge and Pontiac have one win each while Ford has three, although none since 1999. Toyota is tied with Oldsmobile and Scion at zero.

• James at One Bad Wheel has an interesting article on the history of victory lane celebrations. Todd Parrott is credited with starting the brick kissing tradition in 1996. It’s interesting to see how different traditions start and what makes one action stick while others are considered lame? Kissing bricks, climbing fences and drinking milk. They all make perfect sense. In a way it’s like nicknaming yourself. You can’t try too hard and make it intentional or it looks desperate. His article also reminded me of the time in 2005 when Kurt Busch won the fall Richmond race and kissed the asphalt. No one has done it since, thankfully.

• Bill Elliott will attempt to make his 15th Brickyard race. While he is no longer a threat to win races, Elliott can still get it done at select tracks. He has never finished worse than 23rd at Indy and has 5 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s in his career. That includes his 2002 win where he led 93 laps.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is becoming a serious threat on intermediate tracks. Last year he relied on attrition to score a decent finish. This year he is running in the top 10 and top 15 for the bulk of races.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Chump: Carl Edwards Sure Edwards can win at any track, but so far in his career Indy hasn’t agreed with him. A ninth place finish in 2006 is sandwiched by two mediocre finishes (12th, 18th) with bad driver ratings (69.6 and 67.1).

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin stayed in the top 5 almost all day at Pocono and has already said he can win at Indy. He is not one to exaggerate.

Who Will Get to 1st Base with the Bricks?

Tony Stewart will surely be a popular choice along with his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Kasey Kahne has been very good on speedways this summer and Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr could also show up in strength. Kevin Harvick is also one to watch (no matter what loser bloggers might say about his season, he comes good at Indy). Maybe I’m bored of picking the same four or five drivers each week, but I’m going deeper for my pick this week. Over the last two months
Brian Vickers has quietly ran with the leaders on a weekly basis. His driver rating over the last 8 races is a very neat 92.2. He was the fastest car at Michigan and one of the fastest at Lowe’s, Dover and Pocono. He is ready to win and it will be surprising if he doesn’t have a win by the time the Chase rolls around. Win number one for Red Bull Racing might come this weekend.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002.

2003: Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Greg Biffle: 15 combined wins

The 2003 rookie class featured two young drivers for Chip Ganassi, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears, and the older Greg Biffle who took longer to reach the Cup level but has actually enjoyed the most success.

Jamie McMurray got a headstart on the others in the class by subbing for an injured Sterling Marlin in 2002 and winning in only his second Cup start at Charlotte. Although he didn’t win in his official rookie season, McMurray was steady enough to earn the Rookie of the Year. With multiple Busch wins and a smooth transition to the Cup level, McMurray was proclaimed as a future star. The statement made sense at the time.

Then McMurray had an even better 2004, narrowly missing the Chase but finishing 11th in the final points. Despite not winning he had 9 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s and an average finish of 13.2. He followed that up with another narrow miss at the Chase and a 12th place finish in 2005.

As McMurray’s astonishing win in his second start got smaller in the rearview mirror, most people came to the conclusion that McMurray was good enough to win but lacked a strong enough team. Midway through 2005 he was announced by Roush Racing as the replacement for Mark Martin. After a prolonged contract battle, McMurray was released to drive for Roush in 2006. As things turned out he replaced Kurt Busch, meaning he inherited the 2004 Nextel Cup championship team and a car with 6 wins in the previous two seasons. It looked like the ideal setup for McMurray to give him every chance to win a lot of races.

Instead McMurray has struggled with Roush. In two and a half years he has 19 top tens, five fewer than his 2004 season. One of the few highlights was winning the Pepsi 400 in 2007. He has also gone through four crew chiefs in two plus years.

Casey Mears didn’t have a lot of stock car experience when Chip Ganassi hired him to drive the #41 Target car in 2003. His only prior experience was a full Busch season in 2002. The lack of experience showed as he struggled with consistency in his first two and half seasons. He would have a highlight like winning the pole for the Brickyard in 2004 and then follow it with a string of disappointing finish. As a rookie he suffered 10 DNF’s, mainly from crashes.

Eventually Mears began to acclimatize to stock cars. By 2006 this number was reduced to two. 2005 marked the first time he was a legitimate threat to win races. After strong runs at Texas and Homestead, it was slightly unjust that he didn’t win a race in 2005. He opened 2006 with a 2nd place run at the Daytona 500 and followed it up with two more top tens in the season’s first three events. Unfortunately he didn’t score another top ten until race 15. By then it was too late to realistically think about the Chase. After 2006 he landed a dream ride with Hendrick Motorsports alongside longtime friend Jimmie Johnson. The move did yield Mears’ first and only Cup win, but he again struggled with consistency.

Greg Biffle took more of a traditional path to the Cup level. He was discovered by Benny Parsons running in the lower, regional series and Jack Roush signed him. Biffle won a Truck Series championship in 2000, but didn’t land a Cup ride until he won a second NASCAR title in 2002, this time as Busch champion. He finally landed a full time Cup ride at age 32.

Like Mears, Biffle’s first two seasons were star-crossed. Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona as a rookie, but also struggled to keep the car off the wall. He won two more races in 2004 at Michigan and Homestead, but still found the wrecker too much.

Biffle’s big breakthrough came in 2005 when he won six races, including 5 of the first 14. He easily made the Chase and fell 32 points shy of winning the title and settled for a tie for second.

Biffle is renowned for his amazing car control, which is probably why he excels at tracks like Darlington (2 wins), Michigan (2 wins) and Homestead (3 wins). Although the wins and Chase appearances have not piled up like they did in 2005, Biffle remains one of the top drivers at the Cup level. He won two races in 2006 and one in 2007 while posting top 15 finishes. The dip in performance was partially due to some personnel changes at Roush. This year he has returned to top form. He already has more top 5’s (6) than his entire 2007 season and again sits in position to make the Chase.

Verdict: One good driver and two decent drivers with a combined 15 career wins. It’s interesting that both Mears and McMurray have taken similar career paths that both stand at a crossroads now. First McMurray and then Mears left Chip Ganassi’s team for powerhouse teams Roush-Fenway and Hendrick Motorsports respectively. Each won a Cup race last year, but it’s clear both were high points instead of breakthroughs. Both are now likely free agents for 2009 (McMurray’s plans are still unannounced) and will likely have to settle for lesser rides. As a rookie class, it’s not fantastic but did produce three solid Cup drivers. Biffle has made one Chase and won 12 races. Mears has one win, but has never finished better than 14th in the points. McMurray has two wins and has never finished in the top ten in points. The class produced solid Cup drivers and no washouts, so at least from the perspective it was good for contributing to NASCAR’s middle class.

The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. We’ll begin with the 2002 class.

2002: Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman 47 combined wins

What the class lacked in quantity was easily made up for in quality. Despite moderate results in the Busch Series, both Johnson and Newman both became Cup stars almost immediately. They both won races as rookies, and while Newman earned Rookie of the Year, Johnson actually had the better year, winning more races (3 to 1) and a higher finish in the standings (3rd). Both drivers scored 20+ top tens in their rookie seasons, proving their skill at the Cup level. 2003 they each debunked the myth of the Sophomore Slump. Newman won 8 races and driver of the year while Johnson finished third in the final standings.

Despite winning a season high 8 races in 2003, Newman has tailed off as a championship contender. Since 2003 he has only won 4 races in four and a half seasons. Although he has not reached the elite heights of NASCAR (due to a variety of reasons), Newman is a very solid driver. In six full seasons he has averaged 2 wins, 9.8 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. Plenty of drivers would take those numbers. Despite those numbers most fans would agree that Newman is talented enough to achieve even more. His point standings in the first four years were 6th, 6th, 7th and 6th, but the last two seasons he has missed the Chase. Among his accomplishments are 43 poles, which already ranks 11th on the all-time list in only six plus seasons. He also won the 2008 Daytona 500 in dramatic fashion.

If Jimmie Johnson was an unknown entering NASCAR, he has blossomed into one of the top three drivers in the sport. Johnson has won 34 races, including a Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, and the season title in 2006 and 2007. He has also never finished worse than 5th in the standings. His average stats for his first five full seasons are 5.5 wins, 14.3 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. He has also won at 15 of the 22 Cup tracks, proving his versatility. He and crew chief Chad Knaus have formed one of the longest driver-crew chief combinations and are widely regarding as one of the top pairings in the sport.

Verdict: Obviously it’s easier to assess this class because it’s older. In only 6+ seasons, Johnson is already one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport and could already begin filling out some of the details on his Hall of Fame application. It wasn’t a sure thing in 2002, however. Based on his Busch record, Johnson was a risky hire. Newman began his career with a flourish but has since struggled a bit, although that isn’t entirely his fault. As a class the two drivers have combined to win 47 races and have made the Chase 6 out of a possible 8 times. Overall this class produced one elite driver and another good driver. That’s a pretty good success rate.

Saturday night’s race at Daytona was a perfect example of why Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are having such great seasons. They have each enjoyed dominant stretches during the season, but their ability to take advantage of other’s mistakes and finish well when they’re at less than their best is why they are both early favorites to win the Championship.

Busch was solid early on when swapping the lead with Dale Earnhardt Jr. But then he somehow lost the steering on the car(a theme for the race) and fell to the last car on the lead lap. Meanwhile Edwards only spent 72 laps in the top 15 and didn’t crack the top ten until lap 92. The only lap he led was when he stayed out under yellow on lap 112, but then went to the back of the pack on the next lap. And then with three laps left Edwards and Busch were suddenly both poised to win the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and even David Gilliland had greater chances at winning, only to see them all slip from a variety of reasons. What Edwards and especially Busch did is exactly what Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson did last year. They didn’t thrash everyone on a weekly basis, but were very opportunistic and finished races when others didn’t. That’s the quality of a top team.

Kyle Busch now has 60 points towards his Chase score. That’s 40 more than Edwards and Kasey Kahne. If other drivers with title ambitions like Earnhardt Jr, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart hope to keep up, they need to rattle off a few wins to close the gap at the start of the Chase.

• Tony Stewart suffered from dehydration and had to have JJ Yeley sub for him midway through the race. The look on Stewart’s face after he exited the car was one of pure exhaustion. Sometimes it’s easy to forget how physically and mentally demanding races can be, especially at restrictor plate where there is no time to relax.
  

  “I thought we were going to be able to (make it) for the first two runs, but once the car got a little bit loose and we had to start really sawing on the wheel, it’s like it zapped the energy out of me and I started making mistakes. It was a situation where I was trying to look out for everybody involved on the race team. I wasn’t doing us any favors by not being 100 percent. It was better to get out as early as we could versus sticking it out with 20 to go and expecting J.J. (Yeley) to get the thing back in the top-five. It’s one of those decisions you have to make early enough, and I knew I wasn’t feeling good and I wasn’t feeling any better and it was getting worse as we were going. Before the race, the nurse said she was going to buy us a couple of hours and we got three hours out of it. We still had to go out there and try.

• Kyle Petty and Bill Weber were trying to name other recent substitute drivers, but never answered their own question. Ricky Rudd subbed for Stewart in 2006 at Dover after Stewart hurt his shoulder at Lowe’s. Petty subbed for Kevin Harvick at Bristol in August 2004 when Harvick’s arm went numb. Dale Earnhardt also required subs at Loudon (Martin Truex) and Pocono (John Andretti) after his fiery accident in a Grand Am event at Infineion in 2004.

• DEI had a mixed bag this weekend. Paul Menard was the surprise pole winner and led the first ten laps. Mark Martin started 2nd and spent the majority of the race in the top ten before finishing 10th. On the other hand Regan Smith hit Menard from behind in the pits and later wrecked on the last lap and Martin Truex Jr was involved in numerous incidents before finishing 16th. Three cars in the top 20 is nice, but only Martin had a car good enough to hang with the top cars.

• For the second year, the Wide Open coverage was great. Seeing nearly all of the on-track action was exciting, especially in a race with a lot of great action. What would make it even better is if the announcers would be less, um, Wide Open. For example, Weber mentioned Yeley several times and what a great story that would make if he won the race. It’s true, that would have been a great story, but Weber shouldn’t try to force the story, especially when it obviously wasn’t going to happen. Wally Dallenbach, who I tend to like, could also have a bigger impact by saying less. Yelling over Petty and Weber doesn’t add anything and interrupting with a “Whoa!” when cars are single file, also doesn’t enhance the broadcast. Overall the broadcast matched the tempo of the race and did an exciting night justice.

For more racing news and opinion, be sure to check out Racing Nation