Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. We’ll begin with the 2002 class.

2002: Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman 47 combined wins

What the class lacked in quantity was easily made up for in quality. Despite moderate results in the Busch Series, both Johnson and Newman both became Cup stars almost immediately. They both won races as rookies, and while Newman earned Rookie of the Year, Johnson actually had the better year, winning more races (3 to 1) and a higher finish in the standings (3rd). Both drivers scored 20+ top tens in their rookie seasons, proving their skill at the Cup level. 2003 they each debunked the myth of the Sophomore Slump. Newman won 8 races and driver of the year while Johnson finished third in the final standings.

Despite winning a season high 8 races in 2003, Newman has tailed off as a championship contender. Since 2003 he has only won 4 races in four and a half seasons. Although he has not reached the elite heights of NASCAR (due to a variety of reasons), Newman is a very solid driver. In six full seasons he has averaged 2 wins, 9.8 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. Plenty of drivers would take those numbers. Despite those numbers most fans would agree that Newman is talented enough to achieve even more. His point standings in the first four years were 6th, 6th, 7th and 6th, but the last two seasons he has missed the Chase. Among his accomplishments are 43 poles, which already ranks 11th on the all-time list in only six plus seasons. He also won the 2008 Daytona 500 in dramatic fashion.

If Jimmie Johnson was an unknown entering NASCAR, he has blossomed into one of the top three drivers in the sport. Johnson has won 34 races, including a Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, and the season title in 2006 and 2007. He has also never finished worse than 5th in the standings. His average stats for his first five full seasons are 5.5 wins, 14.3 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. He has also won at 15 of the 22 Cup tracks, proving his versatility. He and crew chief Chad Knaus have formed one of the longest driver-crew chief combinations and are widely regarding as one of the top pairings in the sport.

Verdict: Obviously it’s easier to assess this class because it’s older. In only 6+ seasons, Johnson is already one of the most accomplished drivers in the sport and could already begin filling out some of the details on his Hall of Fame application. It wasn’t a sure thing in 2002, however. Based on his Busch record, Johnson was a risky hire. Newman began his career with a flourish but has since struggled a bit, although that isn’t entirely his fault. As a class the two drivers have combined to win 47 races and have made the Chase 6 out of a possible 8 times. Overall this class produced one elite driver and another good driver. That’s a pretty good success rate.

After another disappointing and undeserved finish for Tony Stewart and the #20 team, it’s easy to wonder what’s wrong this year. The truth is, while some of their finishes have been lower than usual, Stewart rarely wins before June. In his 32 career wins, he has only won four races prior to June. In the last five seasons, he has won 12 races in the summer months and 5 wins each in July and August. Whatever the reason, Tony Stewart really loves the summer. Why? It’s probably a combination of many things. He’s excellent at many of the tracks like road courses, Daytona, Chicago, Indianapolis and Loudon. Maybe the hotter weather caters more to his driving style. It might be that Gibbs does more testing in the spring and he reaps the results in the summer (that was certainly the case in 2005), or that they experiment a little more at the start of seasons with the knowledge that the #20 car is good enough to be in contention at the end of the year.

While Stewart is exceptional in the summer months, other drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch have also traditionally hit their strides when the sun comes out. Here is a breakdown of the drivers with at least three wins in the summer since 2003 [note: due to some minor schedule tweaks, some races have changed months from year to year. I used the following breakdown. June (Dover, Pocono, Michigan, Sonoma). July (Daytona, Loudon, Chicago, Pocono). August (Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Darlington/California).

I’m not sure why, but I think there’s a problem with my table, keep scrolling. Sorry

Time permitting I hope to delve further into trends like this over a whole season. Looking at things like teams or drivers that peak at the right time, most successful drivers in the Chase, etc.

It’s your turn, tell me what the numbers mean to you. Are you Smoke fans excited for July? Can Kenseth and Kurt Busch restart their seasons? Why do some drivers thrive in the heat? Or just tell me it’s hogwash.

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.

Elevators and Imitators

Eleven races into the season is almost one third of the way home. Some teams are exceeding expectations while others are underachieving. That’s obvious enough. While the points show one picture, the driver ratings can reveal some differences. A driver with a high driver rating shows

Carl Edwards is 4th in driver rating but sits in 7th place in the standings. Obviously without the 100 point penalty Edwards would be 4th in points. Jeff Gordon is 10th in points but owns the 7th best driver rating. A mechanical failure at Daytona and a nasty crash at Las Vegas erased otherwise strong runs at these tracks. It highlights how damaging engine failures and bad finishes can be to a driver’s points. Outperforming your points total is a good sign for the rest of the summer. I fully expect both Edwards and Gordon to climb higher in the standings and score more top 5’s.

Jeff Burton is second in the points but 8th in driver rating. It’s pretty clear that Burton’s great start is due more to compiling points and avoiding trouble than it is having fast, dominant cars. Avoiding trouble is obviously a testament to Burton’s skill, but it’s harder to sustain than simply running in the top five every week. Every driver will lose an engine, get caught up in a wreck or get a flat tire at the wrong time. Making your own luck by having top five cars every week is a lot more reliable than trying to outlast everyone and sneaking into the top ten or top five.

Elevators: Drivers with the biggest positive differences between points and driver rating
Casey Mears +6
Elliott Sadler +5
Dave Blaney +5
Matt Kenseth +4

Imitators: Drivers with the biggest negative differences between points and driver rating
David Gilliland -7
Clint Bowyer -6
Jeff Burton -6
Bobby Labonte -5
Travis Kvapil -4

The numbers give a decent snapshot of who is running well compared to finishing well. Maybe over or underachieving is the wrong word. Drivers deserve credit for passing as many cars as they can, with whatever method they can. The only point of these numbers is to get a glimpse of which drivers are capable of a strong summer or who might be ripe for a tumble.

Things can obviously change. The CoT is far from perfected, so there is a great opportunity for teams to find new advantages. Burton and RCR could suddenly find something in a test that pushes their cars closer to the front. Or maybe, in the copycat world of NASCAR, everyone might simply catch up to Gibbs and Roush and even the playing field. Younger drivers will likely gain more confidence and experience which could lead to better results. An older driver might get a new crew chief that rejuvenates a team. A team that suffers from bad luck suddenly feels the need to change personnel, resulting in even worse performances. There are tons of variables that could change the numbers.

So who do you think could climb the ladder or go down the chute this summer?

In a move that may well have saved Robby Gordon Motorsports, NASCAR overturned the penalties from Daytona regarding an improper nose. The 100 point penalty was revoked, moving Gordon from the precipice of the top 35 to a safe spot in 21st place. Had the penalty been upheld, Gordon was in serious danger of falling outside the top 35 in owner’s points after Bristol. The added cushion means Gordon can now settle in and focus on scoring good finishes rather than simply surviving. NASCAR made the right move, and it results in a win for the small teams of NASCAR trying to run with the big boys. Gordon said he will now focus on making the Chase. It’s a little far-fetched, but on the bright side he did gain 210 points on Carl Edwards without driving a lap (that has to help with sponsors, right?).

Meanwhile Edwards and the #99 team were
penalized for a misplaced oil lid. The team lost 100 points and Bob Osborne was also suspended for 6 races. Edwards was also deducted the ten bonus points for winning the race that would have otherwise carried over to the Chase. Although Edwards was allowed to keep his Las Vegas title belt, NASCAR did force Edwards perform a reverse backflip to “undo” his win. Again, NASCAR made the right call to penalize the #99 team. The standard penalty for a violation on the CoT is obviously 100 points and a six race suspension for the crew chief. Now the question is what happens on a second offense? This is actually the second violation on the CoT since last September. At some point there needs to be some kind of escalation in penalties.

Atlanta Preview

For the third straight week, the tour heads to a fast intermediate track that emphasizes downforce. The nice thing about Atlanta is that the combination of steeper banking and a weathered track allows for more passing lanes. Tire wear has also been an issue in recent races necessitating the need for a fast car that will handle well on long runs. Well, that and avoiding water getting into your fuel tank.

• Bad news for the bubbles teams is that there is a 60% chance of rain on Friday in Georgia. That means qualifying is once again a dicey affair. It could also mean a greener track come Sunday, making tires even more risky in the early going.

• Casey Mears has zero top tens in ten career starts, outdone only by John Andretti’s 0-22 mark. Mears climbed back into the top 35 last week at Vegas and a top ten would give him significant breathing room heading to Bristol.

• Jimmie Johnson has scored the most points over the last four Atlanta races. And the last five, six, seven and well, he’s scored the most points at Atlanta over any interval of races back to 2003. That counts for three wins, 7 top fives and 8 top tens in his last 10 starts at Atlanta.

• Bobby Labonte is the active leader with six Atlanta wins. Labonte has run well in his first three starts this year, finishing 11th, 25th, and 17th. Labonte has had some nice runs in the last two years with Petty Enterprises at Atlanta, he led 13 laps in 2006 before losing an engine and also has finished 12th and 16th. Nothing would signal the return of Petty Enterprises like a win. In fact, it would likely be one of the stories of the season.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Atlanta is a funny track. Some drivers can run very well at tracks like Texas and Charlotte that you would assume translate to Atlanta, but that’s not always the case. Atlanta has its own characteristics, so it’s best to find drivers that specifically shine

Champs: Reed Sorenson No matter how inconsistent he’s been in his young career, he’s been a rock at his hometown Atlanta track. Three top tens in five career races including a 3rd place run last fall.

Chumps: Kevin Harvick Since his memorable rookie win at Atlanta, Harvick has not enjoyed his stays in Georgia. He scored top 3 finishes in his first two starts, but hasn’t scored better than 15th since. Whatever you do, don’t assume Martin Truex will be a chump this week. Looking at his 28.7 average finish would be a mistake. He consistently runs well at Atlanta but had a few rough finishes in the closing laps. He led 135 laps last fall before a freak accident took him out with seven laps left.

Sleepers: Clint Bowyer. Beyond Jeff Gordon no one else looks very appetizing in the drivers above 20th place. Bowyer has two top tens in 4 career starts and also does a good job of avoiding trouble. He may not score a top five for your team, but at least he will minimize the points blow.

My pick to win: Dale Earnhardt Jr I’m not picking him based on last week, but because he always runs well at Atlanta. No matter how the rest of his seasons have gone, Atlanta is a track where he can almost always manage top 5’s. Now he has a little more horsepower and a car with a little better handling and that makes the difference.

Don’t forget to enter the contest to win a $20 gift certificate to Whatever Sports.

This year NASCAR is spreading the off-weeks out a little more. The last three years the Cup schedule had this weekend off while the Busch/Nationwide Series went to Mexico City for the road race. This year the break won’t come until after race number five at Bristol.

What can we expect? Teams tested at Las Vegas in January, but heavy winds might make that data less useful than usual. The CoT showed glimpses of improvement over the old car last week. One of the biggest things might be the durability of the new model. Several drivers including race winner Carl Edwards scraped the wall with no problems. In the old car any contact would drastically alter the handling. Creating a larger margin for error also creates a larger racing surface for the cars. If a driver can run a high line with less fear of hurting the car, it will bring more excitement and more places to pass.

A friendlier weather forecast will also help the race. The more practice sessions teams can run, the better they can tune the cars and will also mean more rubber buildup on the track which establishes better grip.

Prior to the 2007 race the track was reconfigured with progressive banking. It now resembles tracks like Homestead, Chicago and Kansas. The problem in the race last year was a hard tire causing 9 cautions, including 3 within the first 19 laps. Cars just kept spinning out. Things eventually settled down and Jimmie Johnson dominated for his third straight Vegas win.

Johnson and Matt Kenseth have won the the last five Las Vegas races and have also combined for 7 top 5 finishes and 9 top tens in 14 combined starts. They have also led 578 laps and each have a cumulative driver rating above 100. Johnson’s three year Las Vegas driver rating is 133.7.

What to Watch The top 35 owner points will really firm up after Vegas. Teams like the #5 can’t afford three bad finishes to begin the year. How will that affect their approach to the race? Will the err on the side of conservative to increase the chances of Mears finishing the race? Or will they try and haul in as many possible points?

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Here is a glimpse at how I filled out my picks this week for the Fantasy game at One Bad Wheel.

Champ: Jeff Gordon He currently sits just outside the top 12, so milk him for all it’s worth. In the last three Vegas races he has a 114.1 driver rating. That’s top five points right there.

Chump: Brian Vickers Although he qualifies well, it’s not guaranteed he will make the race. If that happens, your team avoids the penalty his points would carry. He also has zero top tens in three career starts, so even if he does make field it’s not a sure thing he’ll run well.

Sleeper: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Despite his early wreck at California, his car was still turning laps slightly behind the leaders. Tony Eury Jr will lean heavily on the #48 and #24 teams and get the #88 running in the front.

Other Predictions

• It’s time for a racing incident. Daytona had a lot of hard and clean racing, but maybe it’s too early in the season for something to truly develop. California all about finishing the bloody race and avoiding weepers. Vegas is the perfect place for drivers to race hard, drop the clean part and start some stuff. If NASCAR is serious about getting back to its roots, how about cultivating a little. I’m betting my chewing gum on Juan Pablo “I’m not your puppet” Montoya. If that fails, then I default to a broader prediction that an incident will feature an open-wheeler (when there’s a cat named Car-Punt-ier, how can that not incite some carnage?).

• Kasey Kahne will win his 3rd career Vegas Pole.

• Go Fast or Go Homers After the duels and a rainout, this is really the first week that the bubble drivers will have qualifying in their own hands. Only 48 drivers entered means five will go home. Kurt Busch, Dale Jarrett (provisional), Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip, David Reutimann, Patrick Carpentier, Joe Nemechek and AJ Allmendinger all make the race. Apologies to Burney Lamar, John Andretti, Mike Skinner, Ken Schrader and Johnny Sauter.

• Groanwatch. The Fox broadcasters will make at least five references to rolling the dice, deuces wild, and other associations to gambling during the race coverage. Get it? Because the race is in Vegas where…right.

• My pick to win? Kyle Busch is the trendy pick this week, but I’ve never been trendy. When other kids started wearing Girbauds and talking to girls, I was rocking sweatpants and caring more about whom the Minnesota Vikings would take in the 5th round of the NFL draft (not much has changed actually). My pick is Denny Hamlin. He runs well at tracks like Vegas and has been quick everywhere this year so far.

I don’t have anything to say today (and the sarcastic reader would say, “that’s never stopped you before”), so I thought I’d see what else is going on in the world of NASCAR.

• First, a few stories that I didn’t have time to get to during Speedweeks. David Poole wrote an incredible follow-up piece about Wessa Miller. She was the girl who gave Dale Earnhardt Sr the lucky penny before his 1998 Daytona 500 win. An amazing story and a must read.

• Sports Illustrated writer Lewis Franck has his own blog, Franckly Speaking. Prior to Daytona he had a post about Max Papis and gives one more reason why Rick Hendrick is a good guy.
  

  Ken Howes, Hendrick Motorsports vice president of competition, explained, “typically every full- time employee here gets a championship ring. That’s something Rick steps ups and does, then add on anyone who has contributed to the that effort. Max [Papis] is one of them. He did a lot of work testing especially on the road course many laps at VIR (Virginia International Raceway) and Kentucky.” Howes added that David Green, who did yeoman-like work on the COT on ovals, was also given one of those priceless rings.

• Speaking of SI, Mark Beech believes Casey Mears could be great if he were more consistent. Isn’t that kind of the point? If only Shaq were more consistent at the free throw line, he’d be a great free throw shooter, or if Rex Grossman would complete more passes he’d be a great quarterback. Beyond that, his reasoning is based on the fact that Casey Mears wrecked when he was in 5th place. His driver rating was a lousy 68.6. For comparison, Jeff Gordon had an 84.2 rating despite a suspension problem that landed him in the garage.

• A very underrated blog is The View From Here, which takes a business approach to NASCAR issues. Considering it’s written by VCU business professors, that makes more sense than a NASCAR blog with an anthropological slant. Anyway, they mention a story about how Brian Vickers is one of the environment-conscious drivers. I love that Vickers is trying to bring attention to the subject . A lot of what Vickers says I agree with, although I question one thing he says.

  It’s a very small footprint we make,” Vickers said. “It’s only 38 races, 500 miles, 43 cars. The big global picture of things, it’s a small place. It is a start, and every little bit matters.

  Vickers doesn’t mention the cross-country trips that the 6mpg haulers make on a weekly basis. And you can’t forget the private jet flights either. However Vickers does sound pretty serious about the issue. He talks about alternative fuel cells, the effect of biodiesel, buying carbon offsets and recycling. Based on this and other things I’ve read about Vickers, including his decision to switch from Hendrick to Red Bull, give me the impression that Vickers has more on his plate than simply racing. And I mean that in a good way.

• According to That’s Racin’ Gibbs Racing is struggling to get sponsorship for their Nationwide car. Yes, the one driven by Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Let’s see, that’s a car featuring a two-time Cup champion and two other Chase drivers that combined for seven Busch wins in 2007. That doesn’t give a lot of hope for the Sauter brothers does it?

• Robby Gordon was penalized 100 points and his crew chief Frank Kerr was suspended 6 races for his nose job at Daytona inspection. Jerry at RPT thinks it’s a little harsh, while David Poole says NASCAR got this one right. I can see both sides. For one, NASCAR shouldn’t interpret intent, only penalzing all infractions equally and the precedent was set last year with other teams getting 6 races and 100 points. However, if the difference was really just a matter of different decals, that seems a little silly.

• During the weekly media interview I came across this interesting question and answer from Matt Kenseth.
  

  Q. I guess I wonder if you two can help each other at the track or is it just sort of a friendship deal?

  MATT KENSETH: No, you know, I have six teammates already. I don’t think we can really help each other too much necessarily at the track. But, you know, certainly friends and get along good and like to race together.

  (Mike counting teammates on his fingers)..McMurray is three, Ragan makes four…oh yeah…and the two Yates guys they absorbed makes five and six. Seriously, when do we drop the charade and concede that Roush-Fenway Racing is Ford Racing?

When the CoT first was implemented last year the original plan called for 2 and 2.5 mile tracks to retain the old car through 2008. That meant crews would have had to build two types of cars again. I don’t think anyone is still upset about running the CoT full time in 2008, especially crew and shop guys.

The second race of the season, whether it was Rockingham then, or Fontana now, is always a tough spot. How do you provide an encore after the highest profile race of the season? On one hand there is the opportunity to attract fans impressed by the show at Daytona who come back to see what NASCAR is all about. Unfortunately the race is often a single file parade with few passes for the lead. For fans that watch races every week whether it’s in Fontana or Montana, this race does pose something more. While Daytona is great fun, it doesn’t have a lot of bearing on the rest of the season. The CoT will make it’s intermediate speedway debut at California and that will set the table for success or failure at similar tracks. Teams and drivers that find a good setup at California will have a good start for the other 11 tracks where the CoT will debut. Finally this race means something, and if the CoT can stoke the action at the front of the field then we’re really on to something.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers Breakdown

This week Champs, Chumps and Sleepers is a little bit unique. As the season progresses the top drivers will obviously migrate to the top 12, but after one race many of the top drivers sit outside the top 12. It’s a freebie week. Take advantage of drivers like Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon being sleepers. It might be the only time this year it happens.

Here’s a slice of my picks.

• Champ: Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has won the last two spring races at Fontana and Roush Racing is sure to show improvement on the CoT this year. Kenseth also has the best driver rating (113.9) over the last six Fonata races

• Chump: Robby Gordon GEM has the capability to run well at intermediate tracks, but it will take Gordon a few months.

• Sleeper: Jimmie Johnson The Hendrick cars had an eventful Speedweeks, both good and bad. Fontana will see a return to normalcy for Johnson, meaning a top five finish.

Must see TV Friday’s qualifying. It’s bad enough that if you don’t go fast enough you go home, but this week home means a cross-country truck ride with zero to show for it. And you will have to turn around and do it all over again in two weeks. So who will make it? Kurt Busch, Dale Jarrett (provisional), Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip, AJ Allmendinger, Patrick Carpentier, Joe Nemechek and in a mild surprise, Boris Said (that’s my heart talking).

Watch out for: Expiring engines. With the high RPM’s and no restrictor plates, engines have often been a factor at the first race of the year. In the last three years, this race has averaged 5.3 engine failures. 2005 saw all the Hendrick engines wheeze and sputter. Last year the gremlins chose DEI and Evernham cars to reside. In fact the gremlins like the DEI hoods so much, they extended their lease for the rest of the year.

Prediction: Carl Edwards. Roush-Fenway-Matsuzaka Racing has won three straight spring races at Fontana. Roush has 15 combined wins at Fontana and its big sis’ track Michigan. This time it’s Edwards’ turn to take the checkered flag, and flip, grin and fist
pump, yadayadayada. Cue the Bob Osborne dry interview.

What a way to get your first win in 81 races. And not a bad race to choose either. Ryan Newman gets a well-deserved and popular win (how about that burnout, or was it a smokeout?). The difference came down to a battle of teammates, and the two Penske cars got a better bump draft than the Gibbs cars, who had a bigger gap between them.

On the surface the success by the Dodge teams looks like a big surprise, but all of the Dodge teams have made gains on restrictor plate tracks in recent years. Kurt Busch had a top 5 driver rating at three of the four plate races in 2007. Ryan Newman nearly won the 2006 Daytona 500 had fellow Dodge driver Casey Mears gone with him. Evernham placed two drivers in the top ten in last year’s Daytona 500. Ganassi’s Reed Sorenson finished in the top five in each of his Daytona races this week. They didn’t lead a lot of laps but were all around at the right time and got good finishes. 6 of the top 10 and 8 of the top 15.

California will be a big test for all the teams, but especially Dodge. Penske cars ran well last year at intermediates, but can GEM and Ganassi find consistent speed? That is the bigger test.

Random Thoughts and Notes

• As I mentioned last week I had a soccer game meaning the race was watched on tape delay. I saw the first 8 laps live, left the house and then had to spend the rest of the afternoon avoiding all of my favorite websites, email and even my cell phone to successfully escape the NASCAR world temporarily. If you’ve ever taped a race, you know how tempting it is to look up the winner.

• The Gibbs cars combined to lead 136 of the 200 laps. Obviously a restrictor plate race is different than other tracks, but that doesn’t bode well for pure horsepower for the other manufacturers. Chevy led 31, Dodge 23, Toyota (Non-Gibbs Division) 5, and Ford led 8. Let’s not get carried away yet and crown the Gibbs drivers. Hendrick, Roush and RCR will have something to say over the next three weeks about speedway supremacy.

• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin (and you could probably throw in Tony Stewart too) are going to have a blow up at some point this season. It will most likely come when they are fighting for the lead in the first third of a race. The team is not going to implode as the Fox booth alluded to, but there will be an incident.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr had the second best driver rating (115.6), hung out in the top 5 all day and looked fairly strong in the nighttime. The one thing missing was any semblance of teammates.

• Other notable finishes: Bobby Labonte narrowly missed a top 10 in 11th. After getting hung out to dry, Jeff Burton sunk to 13th place. Sam Hornish Jr finished 15th and had a very impressive 90.1 driver rating. In his final Daytona 500 Dale Jarrett finished 16th. That’s his best finish since an 11th at Atlanta two years ago.

• Furniture Row’s Sunday didn’t turn out like their big Thursday. Both cars finished in the 40’s. Don’t feel too bad, the two collected over $500,000 in prize money for the effort. That will go a long way towards paying bills for the small organization.

• Does the CoT signify the end of the Big One? The combination of the wing and the heavier body have kept cars against the wall instead of hurtling back towards the pack. Car after car hit the wall and stuck there. Even my wife asked why the cars weren’t creating huge melees. The more cars that are around at the end of restrictor plate races the better.

• Top five commercials: Amp (Junior fighting a Gorilla), Toyota (kids controlling drivers’ cars with remote controls), NAPA (’90 Bristol Car), Fedex (Hamlin speed-reading), UPS (Dale Jarrett finally races—and wins—in the truck)

  Least favorite: Carl Edwards in the Claritin spot. The product may not cause drowsiness, but its ads do.

• Fox unveiled the new Gopher Cam. It’s a ground level camera in each turn that gives another new perspective. As someone born in Minnesota, I’m all for more exposure for Gophers, but I still prefer the crane cam. There is just something about the sweeping shot of the lead pack through an entire turn.

• If anyone has a connection with a Fox Sports producer, I would love to see one simple change. When a pit road reporter is talking, they highlight their name with a yellow bar on the ticker. My immediate reaction is there’s a caution, then realize it’s merely Krista Voda talking. When I was a youngster, I had the Crayloa 64-color box. Almost any of the other 63 colors would work. How about a nice periwinkle or purple mountain majesty?

[Apologies for the late post. Apparently you have to hit “publish” when you want something show up on the World Wide Web.]

If you need more NASCAR goodness (and who doesn’t?) check out news and opinions over at Racing Nation.

Jeff Burton’s 2007 season was like an Oreo. Crisp and solid on the ends, but soft, gooey and unhealthy in the center. He scored a win at Texas, five top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the first seven races and finished with 2 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the final 8 races. The results sagged in the middle however and Burton couldn’t quite find the top 5’s with the regularity of the first part of the year.

Compared to the low point in his career with Roush from 2002-2004, Burton making his second straight Chase and finishing in the top ten is a good year. Burton also gets his share of praise for his role in RCR’s improvement in the last two seasons.

Off the track RCR and Burton’s primary sponsor AT&T spent the season engaged in a lawsuit with Nextel and NASCAR. Although the team won two appeals to put AT&T logos on the #31 car, the suit did disrupt things. The case is still pending, which means it could be more wrangling with Nextel and by connection, wrangling with NASCAR. That doesn’t promise stability for the #31, although RCR could surely plug in other sponsors.

All three Childress cars made the Chase, but no one was consistently leading a slew of laps of knocking out the top 5 finishes. In that sense, RCR took a small step back from 2006. Burton led 649 laps and 4 poles in 2006, but only 79 laps and no poles in 2007. Burton did improve his lead lap finishes, average finish (13.8) and laps finished. Those numbers indicate that an improved consistency. In other words the RCR cars weren’t running at the front as much but they were avoiding the valleys too.

Burton is not going to outrun everyone, lead a lot of laps and rack up 5 or 6 wins every year. What he does do is turn laps, improve the car with good adjustments and suddenly be there at the end. Look at his last two Cup wins. At both Dover and Texas he didn’t lead a lot of laps, but then suddenly he was there with the fastest car in the final segment. At Texas last year he led one lap, but it was the final lap. He did the same thing at Las Vegas but a vibration deserted him late.

Very few teams can tout the resources and personnel that RCR has. This automatically gives them an edge in developing and perfecting the CoT. It also makes them one of three teams that has any kind of chance to match Hendrick’s success.

Burton’s preferred track type is very similar to teammate Kevin Harvick. Loudon, Phoenix, Richmond, Bristol are all tracks that the two share as favorites. It’s interesting that Burton excelled at the same type of tracks prior to RCR. Was that something that was a natural fit when he joined or something that he helped culbivate in the team’s designs? In the end it doesn’t matter whether it was the chicken or the egg, because the team is getting results. In addition to the tight, flat tracks, Burton has run well lately on intermediate tracks. He is the only driver with two wins at Texas, and he’s also had recent success at Charlotte, Las Vegas and California

2008 is an interesting year for Burton and RCR. All three cars made the Chase in 2007, but it was more from compiling finishes than racking up great results. In year two of the CoT a lot more teams will have a better handle on the car. That means increased competition for the 12 playoff spots. Burton is obviously good enough to make the Chase, but one of the RCR drivers will be the odd man out. Burton can win a race, but the rest of his success is dependent on amassing top 10’s. I think he’ll need 13-14 prior to the Chase. For comparison, that’s a higher number than last year when he did make it.