Trouble in Turn2

After three straight races in three different time zones, all the NASCAR drivers were looking forward to the off-week before heading back to work. Like every other person with free time, they look forward to their vacation filled with relaxtion and entertainment. Earlier in the off-week several NASCAR drivers decided to relax and enjoy a night out together. So Dave Blaney, Patrick Carpentier, JJ Yeley, Kyle Petty, Johnny Sauter, Mike Skinner, Bill Elliott, John Andretti, Joe Nemecheck and Dario Franchitti decided to head to a trendy Charlotte nighttime hangout, Club 3-5.

As the group approached the front door, they were suddenly stopped by the bouncer,“Sorry, I can’t let you guys in”.

“What? It’s only 9:00 and it’s a big club, it looks like there’s plenty of room for all of us,” said an irritated Nemechek.

“Yeah, there’s room but we have to save spots for people with better dance skills.”

“Better dance skills? Like who?” asked an incredulous Andretti, “Who’s cooler than us?”
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne nudged their way through the group and moonwalked their ways inside the door.
“Ok, fine,” responded Andretti, “They’re pretty cool, but who else?”
Just then, Regan Smith and Sam Hornish Jr walked up to the velvet rope and nudged their way past the group of drivers. “Hey Mike, can we get in?”

“Of course guys,” said the bouncer as he opened the rope and motioned them towards the door. Then turning back to the other drivers shrugged and said, “That’s the rules. Those guys have been better dancers this year than any of you. Plus have you ever seen Hornish pop and lock?”

“We just want to get into the club, we don’t expect to dominate the dance floor. That’s only fair,” pleaded Petty.

All right, some of you can still get in, but you’ll have to prove it with your dance moves. I’ll let eight of you in, but the others have to go hang out at the Olive Garden.”

Bill Elliott was the first one to try. He began with a slow, uncoordinated rendition of the Charleston, but then Mike the Bouncer interrupted. “Hey, didn’t you win a dance contest a few years ago? Yeah, you did. 1986 right? Go ahead, you can go in.”

Next up was JJ Yeley. His acrobatic routine began impressively but then as he was squaring up for a flip, he slumped to the ground. “I think I broke my leg!”

“That’s a shame there JJ, but I’m sorry we can’t let you in.”

As Yeley was writhing in pain on the ground, another driver, Michael McDowell limped up to the door on crutches. With a simple nod to Mike the Bouncer, McDowell slipped inside as the door closed behind him. A befuddled Yeley just sat there.

Next up were Franchitti, Carpentier, Skinner and Andretti doing some ballroom dancing. The performance, although awkward without female dance partners, impressed Mike the Bouncer enough. “I’ll let you guys in, but let me see the other dances first. Just stand here for a minute.”

Just then Boris Said walked by and saw all the dancing. “That looks pretty fun, I think I’ll give it a shot too.”
Petty realized there were only three spots left so he went for it. He pulled out the Robot routine he’d learned from his dad back in the 70’s. “Kyle, I’m sorry but it was just too slow. It may have worked in another era, but I can’t let you in.”

So Said proceeded to do a flawless breakdance routine capped with a headspin. “That was amazing! That’s one of the best dances I’ve seen tonight. You’re in for sure!” Just then a lightning bolt lit up the sky followed by a sudden downpour.

“It’s raining! I didn’t even have a chance to go,” cried Blaney as the makeup for his Thriller routine ran down his face.

“You’re right Blaney, we need a way to settle this.” The bouncer paused for a second, “Okay, Elliott, Blaney, Franchitti, Nemechek, Yeley-but you’ll need to switch to your backup routine when you get inside, Sauter, Carpentier and Skinner. You guys can go inside, the rest of you can check out a never-ending pasta bowl.”

“What? You said I was awesome! Now I have even get in because it’s raining?”

“Sorry Boris. The rest of these guys show up every week and try to get into the club, but you just show up from time to time. How would that make sense?”

“None of this makes sense. Come on Boris, let’s go get some breadsticks.” said Andretti.

Let’s start with a few obvious statements from the weekend.

1. Carl Edwards and Roush as a whole are the team to beat at intermediate tracks. Only a blown engine at Atlanta kept Edwards from winning all four intermediate track races in 2008. It shouldn’t be a big surprise. Roush has always had great chassis at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. As for Edwards, it might be convenient to believe that the oil lid was the reason for his early dominance, but he is just dialed in at the high speed tracks. And as usually happens with a suspended crew chief, expect his cars over the next 6-8 races to be really good too.

2. Nobody was happy with their car and it might stay that way for most of the year. That’s not necessarily a bad thing either. Texas was hot and slick and one of the trickier tracks on the circuit to begin with. If everyone is struggling with the car, then driving talent will rise to the top. Cars up and down the leaderboard struggled with making proper adjustments. Teams might not like it but for the most part things appear fairly equal.

3. The tires and the racing appeared to be better. Mark Martin on the tires at Texas.

   These are acceptable. Atlanta was not. I’ve driven these cars 30 years. I’ve never driven on anything like Atlanta in 30 years of experience. So, these tires were great. They were very acceptable. I give them high marks. I didn’t see anybody having any problems and the car is a handful.

   I thought the racing was better than Atlanta. And most of the drivers were more worn out by the car than the tires. But just because the focus was turned away from Goodyear shouldn’t mean they can’t afford improvement with the tires.

4. Hendrick might not be totally down, but something is wrong in the house. First Jimmie Johnson struggled at Las Vegas. Then Jeff Gordon and the #24 car were like Jack Shepard. Lost.
   

   I can’t remember the last time we struggled this bad. Yes, it is just a bad day gone worse for our DuPont Impala SS team. I wish I had an answer for you, but I don’t. We are just really, really bad and I lost control of the car and I was hanging on just every single lap. We are going to fix the car and get back out there and do some testing. We have never felt anything like this.
   “We saw the NO. 48 in Las Vegas with their troubles but we haven’t sensed anything like that until we got here and we have been way off. We have to find it because we can’t go through the year like this.

   It’s hard to say if it’s related to the new speedway program that the CoT requires or Hendrick is simply stubbing their toes so far in 2008. What is known is that Gordon and Johnson aren’t simply showing up and running in the top five at every track. By no means does that mean that it will remain that way in 2008.

Notes

• Through seven races no driver has won from the pole this year. Every winner has come from a top ten starting position however. Three times this year’s winner started on the outside pole.

• I really liked the split screen view that showed 9 drivers’ in-car cameras at once. It’s something Fox should do every week. With all of the technology

• For the third straight season Jeremy Mayfield has driven his way out of the top 35. He has one finish better than 20th (16th at Las Vegas). In a familiar plot, the #70 car is unsponsored and missing races would only hurt that effort.

• A Ganassi car was actually spotted on Sunday. Too bad it was mostly Juan Pablo Montoya irritating lead lap cars. It’s interesting the Chip Ganassi ripped into his teams earlier in the weekend. Sure things aren’t going well, but publicly admonishing the drivers and crew doesn’t really help anything.

• Obviously the rookie class has been a collective dud, but one that is showing the most improvement is Patrick Carpentier. He crashed in Daytona qualifying but has made every other 2008 race where qualifying has been held. He’s scored top 30’s in his last two races and most importantly he’s avoiding trouble and turning laps. He doesn’t have the resume of the other open wheel rookies or the seat time in a stock car like Regan Smith or other young drivers, but Carpentier is one that could show improvement over the course of the year.

• Be sure to visit Autismspeaks.org and watch the Chevy video. All you have to do is watch a video and Chevy will donate money to autism research. It’s a simple way to help that doesn’t cost you a thing.

For more NASCAR news check out Racing Nation.

Good teams run well, not the manufacturer.
It is not a coincidence that nearly all of Toyota’s success happened after Joe Gibbs Racing aligned with the manufacturer last fall. The knowledge and resources they provided to Toyota is what got all of the Toyota headed in the right direction, not the other way around.

Granted Toyota has a lot of money, which is a big reason why Gibbs decided to leave Chevrolet. But Gibbs is a top organization because they are organized, have lots of engineers and technology and know how to use their resources. The only major difference for Gibbs in 2008 is that they have three cars competing for wins instead of two. Gibbs was a top team with Pontiac, then Chevy and now Toyota. It would be the same thing if Roush-Fenway Racing switched to Toyota. After Jack Roush was done seething, stomping up and down and the steam stopped shooting from his ears, his teams would still run up front and compete for wins.

It’s easy to point to Gibbs’ early success this season and tie it to the manufacturer switch, but all you have to do is look at the other Toyota teams to see the truth. It takes a lot more than a rich manufacturer to succeed at NASCAR’s highest level.

Michael Waltrip Racing is not going to last long in the top 35 without a tighter operation.
Last year was unmitigated disaster for the three car team. The cars couldn’t consistently qualify, were slow once in the races and none of the three cars were close to the top 35. This year all three cars made the first five races and did enough to land on the good side of the top 35. Well, that lasted one week. David Reutimann lost his spot thanks to a bad transmission and Waltrip tried his best to wreck out of the top 35. No MWR driver has a better rating than 56.0 and the team has zero top tens. Bad luck will happen to every team, but it hurts more when the cars aren’t compensating with strong finishes.

Two years ago Bill Davis Racing raced Dodges with no manufacturer support. Blaney not only managed to keep the car inside the top 35, but he also posted a top 5 at Richmond and had several other strong runs for the one car underdog team (Yes, Michael Waltrip was technically a teammate, but he did his own deal). Last year with Toyota backing the year began with a flop, but Blaney again recovered to score some nice results. It looked like Blaney was outperforming the equipment and once the cars caught up, he could really show his skill. That might still be true, but the cars aren’t there yet and Blaney hasn’t exactly sparkled himself. Not only that, but the second BDR team folded after only one start this year.

Brian Vickers and Red Bull Racing are the only other Toyota team with a top ten this season. Not only has Vickers maneuvered his way into a solid top 20 position in the points, he is running consistently well. He has three top fifteens and would have had a fourth last weekend, but he ran out of fuel with less than ten laps left. The second Red Bull car is still struggling, but at least Mike Skinner is three for three in qualifying for races.

In conclusion, Gibbs Racing is good, the other Toyota teams are varying degrees of lousy. For as much paranoia that Toyota endures about ruining the Sprint Cup series, it’s pretty unfounded. Until they are to the point where Toyota can plug any team into their program and compete for wins, it’s time to realize that Toyota isn’t some monster that many fans believe.

Random Thoughts

• How Can Travis Kvapil and Yates Racing not get a sponsor?
  Kvapil is relatively young, has already won a Craftsman Truck Series title and is solidly inside the top 35. He scored a top 10 at Las Vegas and had solid top ten runs at California and Martinsville spoiled by mechanical problems (California) and a pit road crash (Martinsville). There are several cars without the luxury of a guaranteed starting spot that do have full sponsorship. How long will it take companies to realize that a sponsorship has more value if the rolling billboard is actually in the race.

• Where are the “Kyle Busch is so mature” campaigns now?
  In Saturday’s truck race, Kyle Busch sent 2nd place Johnny Benson spinning on the final turn of the final lap. Busch also spun, but his quote was very telling.
  

  I’m not happy with third. I want to go up there to the top. That’s what I’m here to do. To try to get the best possible finish I can for my guys and my team.

  It’s one thing to wreck another driver in the Cup series when you are going for points, but to do it in a series that you don’t run full time is another. It’s like being a guest in someone’s house. Saying you are a racer also does not grant carte blanch for aggressive driving at every turn. After his win at Atlanta, I wondered what would happen when something bad happened. I guess we’ll see this weekend.

[Trouble in Turn2 Exclusive] The King is back. Seven time NASCAR Cup champion Richard Petty will replace son Kyle in the #45 car for the upcoming Sprint Cup race at Martinsville. With the younger Petty losing his guaranteed spot inside the top 35, the team will utilize NASCAR’s past champion provisional to make the next six races.

”We thought about moving Bobby [Labonte] to the #45, but that would create more complications, and the public opinion on swapping owner’s points was very negative, so we did the next best thing,” said Petty Enterprises GM Robbie Loomis, “Besides. Imagine the revenue we’ll get from the diecasts.”

Initial concerns about the 70 year old Petty’s safety were immediately dissipated. “Because Richard is a former champion, we will have him in the car for qualifying and then Kyle will take the wheel for practices and the actual race. Richard will make one lap at qualifying speed and the rest is taken care of by NASCAR’s muddied rule book. We’ll start 43rd, but that’s where Kyle typically runs anyways.”

That muddied rule book awards one guaranteed spot to the most recent champion not already qualified for the race. Loomis had no comment when reminded that a more recent champion, Bill Elliott is also entered at Martinsville.

In related news, DEI is applying for a posthumous past champion’s provisional to be transferred from the late Dale Earnhardt Sr to his wife Teresa. This would allow her to pilot the #01 normally driven by Regan Smith.

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How two rules combined to create a qualifying quagmire

It began as two simple rules to protect certain teams and at the same time ensure fans would see the biggest stars. NASCAR didn’t intend to create a monster, but it has and it is only getting worse. With some drivers losing their guaranteed spot in the top 35, teams are faced with devising a way to return their cars to the safety zone. Now some teams are exploring ways to take a loophole and turn it into a crater big enough to drive the CoT through. Petty Enterprises and Roush-Fenway Racing have cars featuring past champions (Bobby Labonte and Matt Kenseth) that are currently inside the top 35, while other cars are outside the safe zone. There is talk of the teams transferring drivers points in the middle of the season and thus take advantage of their past champion’s provisionals. How did it get to this?

Birth of the Top 35 Rule

In 2004 two drivers that attempted every race, Scott Riggs, Bobby Hamilton and Kyle Petty missed races because they ran out of provisionals and failed to qualify. Their spots were taken by part-time cars. In an effort to protect the teams and sponsors that showed up every week to race, NASCAR created the top 35 rule beginning in 2005. The top 35 teams in the previous year’s owner points were assured a starting spot for the first five races. After the fifth race it would be set on that season’s owner points. At the time the plan made sense because there were less than 43 full time teams. Occasionally a team like Robby Gordon Motorsports would miss a race to a part time field filler, but for the most part the plan worked.

Then in 2006 Michael Waltrip bought Doug Bawel’s 2005 owners points to ensure a starting spot in the first five races. Waltrip quickly squandered the points, but the trend was set. Owner points could be acquired. Waltrip began 2007 by purchasing Cal Wells’ points. Then Morgan-McClure and DEI took it a step further by paying for points after the season had started. Morgan-McClure bought Phoenix Racing’s points in an effort to get the #4 car in the show. In the summer DEI and Ginn Racing merged resulting in sufficient owner for Paul Menard to crack the top 35.

With the introduction of a fourth manufacturer, Toyota, and other teams expanding, there were suddenly 49 teams with intentions of entering every race at the start of 2007. Teams with big money sponsors and faster cars were sent home in favor of the protected teams inside the top 35 that were often less ambitious or just plain slow.

Past Champion Provisional Gets Abused

The past champion’s provisional was a way to allow a former champion an exemption to make a race. The theory was to protect a star driver from missing a race, like Richard Petty or Darrell Waltrip. In theory it too was a fine rule. At the end of his career Darrell Waltrip often used the rule to make races, and while viewed it as pathetic, he was a popular name that surely added fan interest to any given race. In recent years this rule has been abused. Instead of acting as a parachute for a former champion, it’s now being used for brand new teams to gain a foothold or for a floundering team to re-enter the top 35.

In 2005 Joe Gibbs Racing formed a third team with high profile sponsor Fedex. After Jason Leffler struggled to qualify for races, the team hired former champion Terry Labonte to restore the team to the top 35. Taking advantage of the fact that Labonte could make every race with his provisional the #11 car was able to salvage a nightmare season and pave the way for future success of 2006 and 2007.

The following year Labonte was again tapped for his provisional, this time by Hall of Fame Racing’s #96 car. It’s now gone from trend to part of an almost necessary business model for a new Cup team. A model since followed by Dale Jarrett and Michael Waltrip Racing’s #44 car, Bill Elliott and Wood Brothers Racing #21 car and Labonte and Michael Waltrip’s #55 car. The only restriction NASCAR invoked was a 6 race limit per season.

The Current State of Qualifying

Prior to 2008, Penske Racing switched the owners points on their cars. The new #77 car inherited Kurt Busch’s points in order to stretch one car’s guaranteed spot into two. As of race 5, the plan worked. I didn’t agree with the decision to allow the points to be transferred, but at least it was prior to the season.

Now teams are considering shuffling their owner’s points in midseason. Technically there is nothing wrong with this, it’s not breaking any rules, but it is not in the spirit of the rules. It’s something only NASCAR can stop, but they didn’t address the problem prior to 2008 and now it would be inappropriate to do so midstream. The door is already open and NASCAR has essentially invited teams to exploit the two rules as far as possible. It’s not fair to a lot of teams.

Picture this scenario: A smaller team expands to a 2-car outfit, and successfully qualifies both cars into the top 35 without the aid of owner points or past champion provisionals. Although the car is in the top 35, it is unsponsored and has a precarious grip on its top 35 spot. Along comes a bigger team with a car outside the top 35. The big team simply hires a past champion or transfers owners points to the fledging car and voila, big team eclipses small team in the top 35. It’s not a made up scenario. It’s exactly what faces the #70 Haas-CNC car.

For the first 263 laps of the UAW-Dodge 400, it was a pretty uneventful afternoon. There were a few crashes, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth were taking turns leading and the race was moving along at a nice, if tame, pace. Then with one restart things got crazy. Dale Earnhardt Jr spun his tires which caused Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon to change lanes and eventually led to Gordon spinning Kenseth. Then Greg Biffle bumped Gordon towards the inside retaining wall and a scary crash. Edwards then held off Junior and Biffle to claim the win, and fail post-race inspection, but the crash was what stood out. “That’s probably the hardest I’ve ever hit and you know it was my fault,” Gordon said after race. Coming from the driver that survived scary crashes at Pocono and Lowe’s in the last two years, that’s saying something.

Gordon’s wreck was forceful, but he was able to walk away. The initial reaction was that the car did its job, but it also raised questions about the inside walls and converting them to SAFER barriers as well. I also don’t understand why the inside wall would have a bay that juts in and increases that chances of a car hitting the corner straight on. Gordon was fortunate not to strike the wall squarely. Who knows what could have happened then.

Speaking of hard hits, Tony Stewart suffered one hitting the outside wall. It looked like a typical crash–not that there is ever a “typical” crash–that we see most weekends, but Stewart took a long time to climb out of his car and then walked very gingerly. The safety devices did the job in both Gordon’s and Stewart’s wrecks, but can more be done?

• Dale Earnhardt Jr made a suggestion regarding the tires that makes some sense:

  “The tire is a little hard, I am curious as to whether we could bring a softer tire and not have wear problems. If that was possible, I would love that. Give us just a tiny bit of left side grip for the center of the corner, just a tiny bit. I think the track here has aged enough that can explore that and see what is up. They are doing the right thing, trying to be cautious on that stuff.

  “At the test in the winter time when the track has not got rubber down, you are going to wear tires out. So it would be great to do tire testing right after these races, you would get a good idea what kind of tire you got.

  Not only would it give better feedback in race conditions, it would also eliminate any advantage for teams attending the tire tests in the winter. Of course the problems would be keeping the crews at the track for an extra day, especially a west coast track like Las Vegas.

• Chevy hasn’t won in the last four point races dating back to Homestead. It is the longest drought since September 2004 when Ford and Dodge won four races.

• Hat tip to Ken Schrader for running on the lead lap for the entire day. He finished 21st, the best finish for BAM Racing since Mike Bliss posted a 17th at Bristol almost a full year ago.

• When was the last time the #48 team missed the setup? They’ve had races where they struggled or suffered poor finishes from crashes, but in the last two years Jimmie Johnson it would be hard to find more than one or two races where the team was out to lunch.

• If not for the late spin by Kenseth, Roush-Fenway may have placed four of their five drivers inside the top 10. Edwards won, Biffle was third and the rapidly improving David Ragan came home 6th. Edwards, Kenseth and Biffle also posted the top three driver ratings for the day.

• Both Haas-CNC cars spent the first 150 laps in the top 15 and Riggs top 10, then within 15 minutes both were involved in accidents. Jeremy Mayfield was able to change tires and continue his strong run to finish 16th, but Riggs wasn’t as fortunate. He spent 147 laps in the top ten, but could only manage a 36th place finish for his effort.

• The top 35 puzzle is starting to fill in. Right now five cars have entered the top 35 in owners points: Kurt Busch (12th), Brian Vickers (13th), and all three MWR cars (David Reutimann 30th, Dale Jarrett 32nd and Michael Waltrip 33rd). The five displaced teams are Dario Franchitti (36th), Robby Gordon (37th), Sam Hornish Jr (38th), Regan Smith (39th), and Kyle Petty (40th). The difference from 32nd to 40th is only 53 points, so things could change a lot in the next two weeks, but for the bubble teams with only two automatic berths left, it is officially time to begin sweating.

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